Archive for March, 2010

Where’s our POTY?

Wednesday, March 31st, 2010

Earlier today, College Hockey News named Marc Cheverie — Denver’s junior goaltender — its Player of the Year. Later that afternoon, the Hobey Baker Award committee announced that Cheverie was not among the top three vote getters.

Blake GeoffrionWe won’t know who wins this year’s Hobey Baker Award until April 9, but we now know it won’t be Cheverie. And that’s just OK with us.

It’s not the first time our Player of the Year was not selected among the final three for the Hobey. In 2006, we chose Minnesota’s Ryan Potulny as POTY. No other player since 1997 has had as many goals as him that season. The next year, we picked Michigan’s T.J. Hensick, who was probably harmed in the eyes of Hobey voters for an egregious penalty he took in mid-season that year. We didn’t consider that in terms of POTY.

The last two years, our POTY and the Hobey winner matched — Kevin Porter and Matt Gilroy. Although, personally, I thought Minnesota’s Ryan Stoa was the best player in the country — albeit he was hurt by playing on a team that didn’t make the NCAAs.

This year, our internal panel was really split down the middle. It wasn’t so much a heated debate as it was just a discussion on philosophy. Should Cheverie be discredited for having been a part of three straight losses to end Denver’s season? And should Geoffrion get a boost for playing hot down the stretch, winning the West Regional MOP, and leading the Badgers to the Frozen Four?

The answer to both questions is definitely yes, but by how much? We certainly wrestled with this question. I think if you asked who should win two weeks ago, then Cheverie would’ve won in a cakewalk. Certainly the postseason is important, but does a couple of games override the whole season? Why would Denver have been without him? The Pioneers saw a scary glimpse of that in November.

Personally, I love Blake Geoffrion. He is an inspirational player, a captain, great on faceoffs, a leader — he has improved tremendously, too, over four years. He is a living example of why staying in school makes sense for most players. He is so much better prepared now for the NHL than he was two years ago.

But in the end, we leaned towards Cheverie.

2010 Pairwise Live Blog

Monday, March 15th, 2010

10:58 p.m. — OK, it’s time to check the main site for the final bracket projections, analysis and explanation. http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2010/03/20_bracket.php …. That’s all for this year’s live blog.

10:39 p.m. — North Dakota wins WCHA championship. The games are over. The field is set. Our bracket projection is on the way.

10:20 p.m. — Boston College wins 7-6 OT thriller. Vermont is in. The field is set. Waiting on North Dakota-SCSU for final seedings.

10:06 p.m. — Michigan’s win knocks out Ferris State. Assuming North Dakota hangs on in the WCHA, for the moment (no offense, Huskies fans), then it comes down to this: Maine wins, it is in obviously … Maine loses, Vermont hangs on.

9:46 p.m.Alaska and New Hampshire are now in thanks to the results so far. Wins by Michigan and Maine would knock Ferris State and Vermont out.

9:40 p.m. — Cornell and RIT win. Cornell’s win helps the bubble teams. But UMD is out.

8:55 p.m. — RIT up 5-0 in the third. UMD, going to be eliminated.

7:56 p.m. — That RIT 2-0 lead is not making Minnesota-Duluth happy, but so far, the rest is OK for them.

5:52 p.m.Miami wins the CCHA consolation game over Ferris State, and gets the No. 1 overall seed. Ferris State, as we noted in the earlier Bubble Analysis, is still OK if there are no “upsets.” New Hampshire is still OK without upsets. If Sacred Heart wins in the Atlantic, UNH is a lock, and it also helps Duluth jump over Vermont. If RIT wins, Vermont and UNH will be in if there’s no upsets. Remember, the bubble teams want Northern Michigan, Cornell and Boston College to win the championship games of their leagues.

5:35 p.m. — Wisconsin wins the WCHA consolation game over Denver. This locks the Badgers to the No. 3 slot overall. Denver will be No. 2 if Miami wins the CCHA consolation, No. 1 overall otherwise.

Saturday, 3:02 p.m. — Waiting for the consolation games to start. Here is a detailed Bubble Analysis just published for mass consumption.

Saturday, 2:42 a.m. — We’re still awake … and let’s see what happens if the “favorites” win out.

1 Denver
2 Miami
3t [AQ] Boston College
3t Wisconsin
3t [AQ] St. Cloud State
6 North Dakota
7 [AQ] Cornell
8 Bemidji State
9 [AQ] Northern Michigan
10 Yale
11 Alaska
12t New Hampshire
12t Vermont
12t Ferris State

In this scenario, Ferris State is the last team in. If this happens, I think it would produce a bracket that looks like this:

West Region, St. Paul: 4. Wisconsin vs. 13. Vermont / 5. St. Cloud State vs. 12. New Hampshire
Midwest Region, Fort Wayne: 2. Miami vs. 15. RIT / 7. Cornell vs. 9. Northern Michigan
East Region, Albany: 1. Denver vs. 16. Alabama-Huntsville / 8. Bemidji State vs. 10. Yale
Northeast Region, Worcester: 3. Boston College vs. 14. Ferris State / 6. North Dakota vs. 11. Alaska

The only intra-conference matchup that has to be avoided is 7-10, Cornell vs. Yale. And the committee could flip-flop 9-10, or flip-flop 10-11. It’s a total guess at that point as to which it would be. It could just as easily be Cornell-Alaska, Bemidji State-NMU, North Dakota-Yale.

The other question is whether Denver would be in St. Paul, or take the “flight is a flight” and move it to Albany, leaving Wisconsin in St. Paul with St. Cloud State. You would just flop the whole bracket at that point.

Now — can we really call Michigan an underdog at this point? If Michigan wins, Yale and NMU flip-flop, which is basically no big deal, since it changes nothing. What happens here is that Ferris State drops out, New Hampshire goes to 11, Michigan to 12, Alaska to 13, Vermont to 14. Then you have:

West Region, St. Paul: 4. Wisconsin vs. 14. Vermont / 5. St. Cloud State vs. 12. Michigan
Midwest Region, Fort Wayne: 2. Miami vs. 15. RIT / 7. Cornell vs. 10. Northern Michigan
East Region, Albany: 1. Denver vs. 16. Alabama-Huntsville / 8. Bemidji State vs. 9. Yale
Northeast Region, Worcester: 3. Boston College vs. 13. Alaska / 6. North Dakota vs. 11. New Hampshire

The only intra-conference game to avoid here would be BC-Vermont, so Vermont is flip-flopped with Alaska, which is a no-brainer vis-a-vis flipping Vermont with RIT.

Take the same scenario, but instead Sacred Heart wins, and Vermont drops out with Ferris State going back in.

And then there’s a ton of other scenarios, and not enough time or space to do them all right now. So play around with You Are the Committee.


11:40 p.m. — Well, as mentioned earlier, the late games had little bearing. Here’s what we know … If things stay fairly according to form — i.e. Northern Michigan, Cornell and Boston College all win — then the last teams in will be Alaska, and either Vermont or Minnesota-Duluth. And for that, it depends on whether RIT or Sacred Heart wins the Atlantic Hockey game. If RIT loses, it is no longer a TUC — and that helps UMD. If RIT wins, UMD is out and Vermont is in. … Ferris State is pretty much still in, even if it loses the CCHA consolation game, unless teams like Maine, Michigan and/or Union win the other leagues. Alaska is in the same boat. … These are a lot of ifs, however.

Who is in …

Denver
Miami
North Dakota
Boston College
Wisconsin
St. Cloud State
Bemidji State
Cornell
Yale
Northern Michigan

If there are no “upsets” … then these teams are also in:

Alaska
Ferris State
New Hampshire

That’s 13 … Slots 15-16 are the Atlantic champ and Alabama-Huntsville. That leaves slot 14 to go to Minnesota-Duluth or Vermont.

With upsets … explore at your own peril.

8:53 p.m. — Waiting on those late game results. With Cornell, BC, RIT already winning, so far, that’s what matters for those on the bubble. The late games won’t have much bearing anymore — for today.

7:30 p.m. — OK, looks to me like Duluth needs RIT to lose — that helps a little. And also needs Ferris State to lose the consolation game in the CCHA. Ferris would still make it, but it would allow UMD to win the FSU comparison, and thus jump over Vermont — because UMD has a better RPI than Vermont. But this doesn’t work unless RIT also loses. UMD needs that extra little bit. There may be another scenario though.

7:25 p.m. — Northern Michigan wins in OT. I think this hurts UMD. Will report back soon.

7:05 p.m. — Just had the pleasure of informing both Cornell and Yale officials that they were in.

6:19 p.m. — Cornell wins 3-0, locks up the NCAAs.

6:13 p.m. — RIT wins 4-0. That just basically shores up its spot as a TUC. That comes into play because if RIT lost, UMass would re-become a TUC, affecting some things — namely taking away a comparison win from UMD, and helping BC.

6:00 p.m. — Cornell goes up 2-0, looking to salt away its NCAA bid.

5:42 p.m. — St. Cloud State wins 2-0 over Wisconsin. This doesn’t directly affect the Pairwise much. If SCSU wins tomorrow, or Wisconsin loses again, then it could move the needle. Right now, it’s status quo — Wisconsin still in position for a No. 1 seed. But remember, Wisconsin will play either Denver or North Dakota in the consolation game — certainly no easy task.

4:57 p.m. — And we’re here in Albany, awaiting the first wave of results from the semifinals, to see how things shake down.

Friday, 10:14 a.m. — It’s been written elsewhere that UMD is eliminated. This is not true. While I also thought the same thing Monday, that one loss would mean the end of UMD, after seeing what happened with last night’s result, I see that’s not the case (as explained in last night’s post). … Using You Are the Committee (isn’t everyone?), here is one scenario where UMD gets in — plug this in, and you’ll see UMD at No. 14, tied with Vermont but winning the comparison because of RPI — EVEN THOUGH it’s Vermont’s win over UMD earlier this season that is basically causing the Bulldogs’ precarious situation to begin with.

  • Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Maine.
  • Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Vermont.
  • Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
  • ECAC Semifinal #2: St. Lawrence defeats Union.
  • ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Brown.
  • ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats St. Lawrence.
  • ECAC Consolation game: Union defeats Brown.
  • Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Sacred Heart defeats Air Force.
  • Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Canisius.
  • Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Sacred Heart defeats RIT.
  • CCHA Semifinal #2: Ferris State defeats Northern Michigan.
  • CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan.
  • CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Ferris State.
  • CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Northern Michigan.
  • WCHA Semifinal #2: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin.
  • WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats North Dakota.
  • WCHA Championship game: St. Cloud State defeats Denver.
  • WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.

I believe this relies upon Northern Michigan losing two games. UMD then takes that comparison, even though NMU would stay ahead of UMD in the overall Pairwise. Obviously, this also relies upon BC and Cornell winning their respective tournaments.

11:35 p.m. — In the last Bracket ABCs article, we wrote that UMD would immediately lose comparisons to three teams, including UNH, with a loss. However, somehow, UMD is actually hanging by a thread. If you go to the Pairwise Comparisons Grid page, you’ll see that UMD is still edging UNH in the comparison. RPIs are showing as exactly tied — .5335 — but UMD must be up by some minuscule margin. It had appeared UMD would drop below UNH in RPI, and thus lose that comparison. But because it is hanging by that thread, it is also hanging by a thread in the Pairwise — in the 14th and final slot at the moment.

10:47 p.m. — North Dakota wins 2-0. Minnesota-Duluth, as expected, subsequently drops into a tie for 14th in the Pairwise. That’s the final spot, but other things have to happen this weekend, and it will conspire to knock out the Bulldogs. Check out You Are the Committee and see if you can keep them in.

Thursday, 9:41 p.m. — We’re here a day early, just to give a reminder that Minnesota-Duluth will be all but officially eliminated with a loss at the Final Five. That game is 0-0 headed into the third. UMD is the only team of the five in St. Paul that doesn’t already have an NCAA spot locked up.


Check back here to follow the fluctuations of the Pairwise in real time, throughout conference tournament championship weekend.

It starts Friday, March 19. See Tournament Watch for details.

ECAC All-Decade ballot

Friday, March 5th, 2010

I was part of the group asked to submit a ballot for the ECAC All-Decade Team. These were my selections:

G – Yann Danis
G – David McKee

F – Marc Cavosie, RPI
F – Jeff Hamilton,  Yale
F – Andy McDonald, Colgate
F – Dominic Moore, Harvard
F – Lee Stempniak, Dartmouth
F – T.J. Trevelyan, St. Lawrence

D – Drew Bagnall, St. Lawrence
D – Doug Murray,  Cornell
D – Grant Lewis, Dartmouth
D – Noah Welch, Harvard

By the way, these are not listed in any order, within each position. The most interesting thing, at least to me, was leaving off David LeNeveu and putting on David McKee. Both Cornell goalies were Hobey finalists, as was Danis. LeNeveu was probably better for one season, 2003, the year Cornell went to the Frozen Four. But McKee had three strong seasons. Just like with the criteria we used to select CHN’s All-Decade team, that was a big factor for me.

For laughs, here was my picks in 2000, for the previous decade, as seen in this old article (look towards the bottom).

Still Proud … Olympics Addendum

Monday, March 1st, 2010

In my article from yesterday, I mentioned that, for one of the few times I can really remember, I was extremely proud of a team I was rooting for, despite them losing. This is not because I am one of those “all or nothing” kind of people, and I’m not saying I’ve ever unfairly ripped my favorite team for not winning a championship every year.  I just mean that, emotionally, in the aftermath of a tough loss, I usually don’t feel pride.

For example, in the NFL, the Jets went on a great run this year — in the playoffs at least. No one expected that. The loss to Indy in the AFC Championship game was crushing. True, no one expected them to get there, but I was still crushed. I don’t blame them, they lost to the better team — but my immediate emotional reaction was not one of pride.

For some reason, this was different last night. As explained in my article, I only felt pride, despite the crushing defeat.

To add some more to my ramblings about college players in those games, it should not be overlooked as well that the tournament’s top scorer was also a product of college hockey — Jonathan Toews, who like Zach Parise, went to North Dakota. There was also Dany Heatley, Dan Boyle and Duncan Keith on the Canadian squad.

I also wanted to respond to people who have called this the greatest hockey tournament they ever saw. I would agree, on one level, that, because there were 8 or 9 teams that were at least pretty competitive, and so many games were thrilling, that this was an awesome tournament overall.

But the best series I ever saw, was the Best-of-3 Canada Cup finals between Canada and the Soviet Union at Copps Coliseum in Hamilton in 1987. This was when, of course, pros didn’t play in the Olympics, so the occasional Canada Cup series — an offshoot of the original 8-game Challenge Series between Canada and the Soviets, 4 games in each country — was played every few years in the ’70s and ’80s. (It was later changed to the “World Cup,” which the U.S. won in 1996.)

The 1987 Canada Cup took the cake. Most of the other countries weren’t on par yet with these two superpowers, but man did they put on a show. All three games were decided 6-5. The first two were decided in OT. In Game 3, Canada fell behind 3-0, but rallied to tie, then won it — 6-5 — on a goal in the last minute by Mario Lemieux.

Which brings me to another point. Thankfully, the Canadians crowd showed some class in cheering Ryan Miller for winning the tournament MVP award. But throughout the Olympics, and really, for the past 14 years, Canadian fans have taken to booing the U.S. Not just in games against Canada, but in games against anyone. Vociferously. And not just in games against anyone, but even in games against Russia. RUSSIA!

What ever happened to Canadian humility and class? This is the reason why hockey is so great, and it emanates from a country with such great culture, and friendliness. I get that it’s become a great hockey rivalry. But there’s no reason — George Bush notwithstanding — to show such venom towards the U.S. hockey team all the time.

But the reason this bothers me so much, and why I take it as a big, personal insult, is that I grew up supporting Team Canada with all my might in every major International competition, including the 1987 Canada Cup. Back then, Canada was representing OUR collective way of playing hockey, and our lifestyle, against the dreaded, hated Soviet machine. I grew up loving hockey, loving NHL hockey, and loving the culture of Canada as a result. I poured my heart and soul into rooting for Canada.

To boo us now, when we play the Russians?!!? That’s just extremely offensive to me.

Finally, taking two weeks off from NHL play is not the greatest thing for the NHL, obviously. In an ideal world, we would still have the World Cup, and that would be the place where all the best players in the world would compete every four years for World supremacy in hockey. But the Olympics are something the whole world focuses on, and places major emotional importance on. It’s hard to generate that on a world-wide basis for something like the World Cup of Hockey. So, despite the problems with it, I think that for the sport of hockey as a whole — and not just the NHL — and for the fans, the pros need to keep playing in the Olympics.

And if you want to see amateurs, then wake up the American public to the awesomeness of the World Junior tournament.