Three Things I Think: Big Ten, Feb. 1

Posted by: Jashvina Shah

In a battle of defense vs. offense on Friday night in Detroit, defense won. Michigan State limited Michigan to one goal in the win, snapping Michigan’s seven-game winning streak. The Spartans are now on a three-game winning streak, and both teams will play in Chicago next weekend.

The Gophers and Badgers resumed their rivalry just a couple weeks after a series-ending brawl. After a 7-5 Gopher win on Friday, the teams played a wild match on Saturday that ended in a 4-4 tie. The Gophers held a 2-1 lead in the third period, but Grant Besse tied the game. Christian Isackson gave the Gophers the lead back 30 seconds later, but Kevin Schulze tied it – thanks to a great play from Adam Rockwood – less than two minutes later. Cameron Hughes scored his first collegiate goal with less than two minutes left, giving the Badgers a 4-3 lead. But this is Minnesota-Wisconsin, so of course Seth Ambroz tied it with two seconds left in regulation.

The Badgers went on to win in the shootout, because Minnesota doesn’t win shootouts.

Penn State and Vermont faced off in Philadelphia. Again Penn State fell behind, but the Nittany Lions responded with four straight goals to defeat Vermont 4-2. Penn State scored three goals in the final period, and has scored eight third-period goals over the last three games.

Michigan is first in the conference, and Michigan State and Penn State are tied for second.

(After the jump: The truth about Michigan, a PairWise check in and the no-defense league)

The truth about Michigan

For a few weeks I’ve talked about Michigan’s offense running into a wall. I predicted that Michigan would fall to Michigan State, as the Spartan defense would stifle the Wolverine offense.

Until this weekend – especially over the past few contests –  Michigan had posted impressive goal totals. But it happened against teams like Wisconsin and Ohio State, who aren’t known for defense.

Because of the offense, and talented players like Zach Hyman and Dylan Larkin, many believe the Wolverines will win the Big Ten tournament. But I could see a team like Michigan State defeating Michigan, because all it takes is a good defense.

The Spartans have the best defense in the Big Ten, and they proved it by holding Michigan to one goal, even with Dylan Larkin, J.T. Compher and Zach Werenski in the lineup. This is the second time since winter break that Michigan State has limited Michigan to two goals or less.

The no-defense league

Last year, the Big Ten had some of the best goalkeepers in the league. This year, it has some shaky defenses. The Spartans have the best defense, but conference power house Minnesota and Michigan have struggled. The Gophers all 2.71 goals per game, 36th in the country, while Michigan is 42nd and allows 4.22 goals per game. The Badgers and Buckeyes allow 4.05 and 3.50 goals per game, respectively.

And Minnesota just allowed nine total goals to Wisconsin over the weekend. The Badgers have now scored 13 goals in their last four games, which included a four-goal game against Michigan. The Badgers, who average 2.05 goals per game on the season, average 2.62 goals per game in conference play.

Checking the PairWise

Earlier in the year, I said Michigan might not earn an at-large bid. They’ve moved up in the PairWise, but are still on the bubble. Meanwhile, Minnesota is 19th and the Nittany Lions are still 22nd.

There’s still a month left in the season, leaving time for the PairWise to change. With the way the season is going, though, I think Minnesota’s chances at an at-large bid are getting smaller, but the Wolverines might still make it.

It’s still very, very early. But these are just some numbers to watch out for as February gets underway.

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