Three Things I Think: Big Ten, Feb. 17

Posted by: Jashvina Shah

The weekend’s play has created a logjam for the top of the Big Ten. The Gophers vaulted into a tie for first after sweeping Michigan, but the Spartans and Nittany Lions are just two points behind. After splitting with Ohio State, the Badgers are still last in the conference.

After struggling since returning from winter break, the Gophers took down Michigan 6-2, with captain Kyle Rau earning a hat trick. Minnesota then won 2-0, getting revenge for dropping tow games at Michigan in January. Rau and Mike Reilly led the team with four points over the weekend.

For the second time in three weeks, it was proven Michigan’s high-powered offense can be stopped. The Wolverines still average the most goals per game, but it dropped from 4.21 goals per game to 3.96 after scoring two goals against Minnesota. It was the first time Michigan was shut out all season. On Monday, Wolverine coach Red Berenson announced that Andrew Copp is week-to-week after suffering an upper-body injury. I’m going to bet he was injured on this play – when he tried to hit Travis Boyd but ended up sending both of them into the boards.

Michigan’s rival, Michigan State, earned a sweep over Penn State – and has won five of its last six games. For some reason, the Spartans have had a lot of success against the Nittany Lions. This season, the Spartans are 2-1-1, and last year Michigan State was 3-0-1 against Penn State.  Mackenzie MacEachern had five points, including a hat trick, for Michigan State this weekend.

The Buckeyes defeated Wisconsin 2-1 on Friday, then fell 3-2 on Saturday. With the win, Wisconsin snapped an 11-game losing streak. Cameron Hughes returned to the lineup, while freshman Adam Rockwood netted two points (1g, 1a), including the game-winning tally on Saturday. Rockwood has scored five points (2g, 3a) over the past six games.

In some other news and notes, Penn State’s David Glen was suspended for butt-ending a Spartan on Saturday. He’ll miss Friday’s game.

(After the jump: The Minnesota we expected, anything can happen, and what can we expect from Michigan State)

The Gophers we know

I went back and watched the first two periods from Saturday’s Michigan-Minnesota game. I wanted to see how Minnesota limited Michigan’s offense, and how representative the score was of the actual game.

From the two periods, the score summed up play. It was a mostly defensive game, with each team getting some good looks on net. Both Steve Racine – who replaced Zach Nagelvoort on Friday – and Adam Wilcox were up to the task of stopping what they faced. Neither team controlled possession, although Michigan continued excelling in puck movement. There were some key defensive Gopher plays (like breaking up a 2-on-1 shorthanded Michigan bid.)

This Minnesota team looked much like the one we expected, an all-around team that doesn’t rely on scoring. The question, as with many Big Ten teams, is if this will last. There’s been a lot of inconsistency – and we saw that from Minnesota from how they played in the beginning of the year -and there can’t be inconsistency for a team trying to win the Big Ten tournament.

(Michigan didn’t look bad, either. For them, defensive improvement is still key, and they’re playing popcorn with goalkeepers.)

Anything can happen

While I’m on the topic of the Big Ten tournament, things are about to get crazy. After the sweep, the Gophers are 13th in the PairWise – so there’s a chance Minnesota won’t earn an at-large bid. The Wolverines are 17, Penn State is 25 and the Spartans are 32. Those are the four teams I think have a chance winning the tournament.

For almost all of them, the only route to get to the NCAA tournament is through winning the Big Ten title. There are four weekends left in conference play, so who knows how the teams will finish the season.

Michigan State has quietly been rising (more on that later) and took down Penn State this weekend. The Spartans have the best goalkeeper (and defense) in the country, which could be enough to take three straight games in Detroit. I’m not sure I feel the same way about Penn State (their offense would have to be stellar), and Michigan’s offense can be stopped. If, in a month, we see the same Minnesota we saw this weekend, I’d pick them to win the tournament.

If you’re forgetting last year’s tournament, it was propelled by stellar goaltending, featured some upstates and just an insane finish.

What can we expect from Michigan State?

Don’t look now, but Michigan State is 6-4-2  and tied for third in the conference. The Spartans are also 5-1 in their last six games, and are 7-3-1 in the second half of the season. The Spartans have wins over Penn State and Michigan, including a hard-fought GLI championship loss to the Wolverines.

I mentioned Jake Hildebrand earlier. He has a .924 save percentage, which is miles higher than other other Big Ten goalkeeper. Hildebrand has helped Michigan State’s defense be the best in the conference, as the Spartans allow 2.35 goals per game.

The Spartan offense has picked up a little bit too. Matt Berry’s return has helped, and the senior has scored in five of the last six games. He has eight points (1g, 7a) over that span, including two assists in each game vs. Penn State. Mackenzie MacEachern is on a three-game point streak, with six points (4g, 2a) over that stretch.

I have to go back and watch Michigan State’s contests against the Nittany Lions (I only got through the first period of Saturday’s game), but the Spartans have looked much better lately.

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