The results around Hockey East on opening weekend where, in a word, interesting. UMass swept Colorado College, Boston College and Boston University both suffered losses in the Capital Region while Providence impressed at Miami, Lowell beat a good RPI team and Maine picked up two ties in the IceBreaker, including one against North Dakota.

It’s dangerous to make any assumptions about a team — good or bad — based on one or two games, but here goes nothing …

1. UMass has the most offense of any team picked to finish last in the nation

The Minutemen swept Colorado College last weekend to open the season and scored 10 goals doing it. That’s impressive, but also no one believed that the Minutemen were going to have trouble scoring goals this season; it’s defending that has been the problem. Nic Renyard (.938) and Henry Dill (.929) both got off to nice starts in goal, splitting the time at CC, and Austin Plevy has four goals in his first two collegiate games, including a hat trick on opening night.

The question is whether or not those results are sustainable, long term, for UMass.

First, CC won just six games all of last season. It’s a tough trip to make and the altitude surely plays a factor, but these aren’t the CC teams of 10 years ago. Also, the Minutemen had a CF% of just 40.5 last weekend, and 40.1 at even strength. Colorado College was the better possession team both nights but the Minutemen were helped out by timely scoring — see Plevy — and solid goaltending, including a team save percentage of .933 on the weekend. Looking at PDO through only two games is a terrible indicator, the sample size needs to be much larger, but still UMass’ last weekend was a whopping 110.28 … in other words, luck was on their side.

While the Minutemen will be a very good offensive team this season, at least middle of the pack in Hockey East, it’s unlikely that they’ll continue to score on 16.9% of their shots, and if last season was any indication, the .933 save percentage isn’t likely to stick for the entire season either. Even with a terrific start to the season, the Minutemen will need to improve possession in order to get any sustainable results. At least that’s what the statistics have suggested the last several years.

If the goaltending can perform at even a .910 level, it should help alleviate some of the pressure put on the offense. By comparison, UMass had a season-long save percentage of just .877 last season and shot 9.4% all while putting up a similar CF% (44.3) to last weekend against CC.

2. Don’t overreact to early season games

As stated above in regards to UMass, getting overly excited, or overly distraught, based on a game or two worth of sample size isn’t smart. You’re only going to drive yourself crazy. So BC fans, the fact that the Eagles lost to RPI on the road last Sunday is nothing to worry about, and BU, same goes for you falling at Union.

There’s also whacky results in early season games — Sacred Heart and UMass Lowell know what I’m talking about — and personally, I don’t think we really begin to learn about a team until at least Thanksgiving.

However first impressions are that pundits may have underestimated UMass Lowell (again) and Providence, who looked mightily impressive at Miami. But again … two games.

3. Picking the weekend

Boston College (vs. Wisconsin) — These aren’t your dad’s Badgers … BC gets back on track with an easy win at home.

Boston University (vs. Wisconsin) — The Badgers will be scurrying back to Madison with a pair of losses on their record after the Terriers find win No. 1.

Connecticut (vs. Arizona State) — ASU played on Thursday at Quinnipiac wile UConn was home resting up. ASU will surprise some teams this season, but not UConn. Huskies win.

Maine (at Union x2) —Many, including myself, thought the Black Bears would struggle. Rob McGovern looked great in net last weekend and he’ll need to do so again. Maine comes home with a split.

UMass (vs. Sacred Heart) — Another day, another win for the Minutemen. Just remember these are three not-all-that-great teams. Still, two points is two points and they all count the same.

UMass Lowell (vs. Colorado College x2) — If UMass can go to Colorado Springs and take two games on the road, Lowell should win a pair of easy games this weekend at Tsongas.

Merrimack (vs. Clarkson, vs. St. Lawrence) — Tough way to open the schedule for the Warriors, with two teams that play vastly different styles. MC wins on opening night before SLU steals one on Saturday.

New Hampshire (vs. Clarkson, vs. St. Lawrence) — Same two games for UNH. Clarkson defends well and wins a close one on Saturday while SLU outscores UNH on Friday.

Northeastern (vs. Bentley, at Bentley) — Good on Northeastern (and Merrimack later in the year) for going to Bentley. Huskies take both, but Saturday is closer than you’d think and Bentley can score.

Notre Dame (at Penn State x2) — Even split for the Irish.

Providence (vs. Holy Cross) — The banner gets raised but the Friars don’t spend too much time admiring it, beating former staff member David Berard at Schneider.

Vermont (vs. Omaha x2) — Omaha’s really good and Vermont should be as well. Thinking split here.

Friday, October 16th, 2015 - 2:25 pm | Blogs, Commentary, Hockey East, Notes, Thoughts, Ramblings