With the conference tournaments approaching, I’ve been running a lot of scenarios through CHN’s PairWise calculator. It started with my interest in Minnesota’s chances (since I cover Big Ten hockey) but has expanded since then.

According to the Pairwise Probability Matrix, there are about nine teams that are locked into the NCAA tournament, and two others (Providence and Quinnipiac) that have very high chances of making it. North Dakota, Minnesota State, Boston University, Denver, Michigan Tech, Minnesota-Duluth, Miami, Nebraska-Omaha and Boston College are all most likely making the NCAA tournament.

Regardless of the results this weekend, the NCHC will have five teams make the NCAA tournament -North Dakota, Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, Miami and Nebraska-Omaha. Very few scenarios have Nebraska-Omaha – the lowest-ranked NCHC team – moving to ninth on the PWR list. I’ve encountered none that have the Mavericks dropping below ninth.

So below I ran through some points of interest, different scenarios, the likelihood of certain teams making it and what they need for that to happen. I will periodically add to this as I calculate more scenarios.  (more…)

Earlier this week, I joined Hockey on Campus‘ Bernie Corbett to discuss the playoff race in Atlantic Hockey, and it got me thinking …

Parity is something most college hockey conferences love to brag about, but until recently, it never really existed. The front-runners were almost always the front-runners and the also-rans were almost always the also-rans, with a few extraordinary years strewn about throughout history.

That trend has changed the last four seasons. UMass Lowell and Providence have become definite powers in Hockey East while Maine and New Hampshire have slid backwards; even Merrimack had a run to the Hockey East title game in 2011. The ECAC’s rise to power has been clearly evident, with back-to-back national champions and a few other programs – most notably Quinnipiac – without a title but still one of the nation’s best teams.

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Worcester, Mass. – For Yale, it could have been a trap game and one of those weird results that often litter the beginning of the second half. But on this night, the Bulldogs held and dominated Atlantic Hockey foe, Holy Cross. The first period was all Yale and they were rewarded for it. Trent Ruffolo opened the scoring for the Elis at 11 minutes 23 seconds, backhanding a rebound home. Yale outshot Holy Cross 19-7 in the first period and took the 1-0 lead to the locker room.

Holy Cross played better in the second period, but penalties proved costly. The Crusaders’, Tommy Dwyer took a five minute major midway through the period. Yale capitalized halfway through the power-play to take a 2-0 lead. Later in the period another ill-advised cross-check to the boards gave Yale another power-play. The Elis again capitalized off the stick of Mike Doherty. Yale led 3-0 into the second intermission. The Bulldogs held serve in the third period for the win and Alex Lyon picked up his first shutout of the season. Holy Cross senior netminder, Matt Ginn, made 37 saves in the loss, while Rob O Gara picked up two points in the win. Yale improved its record to 7-3-2, while Holy Cross dropped to 7-6-4 on the year. (more…)

NORTH ANDOVER, Mass. – Here are three thoughts on both Merrimack College and Holy Cross, after the Warriors completed the weekend sweep on Saturday night. The Warriors took two one-goal games – 3-2 on Friday and 2-1 on Saturday – but Holy Cross showed plenty of promise at the start of the David Berard era.

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Conferences across the nation will crown their league champions, and NCAA automatic qualifiers, this upcoming weekend.

For some teams these will be do-or-die games. For others, there’s a trophy at stake but their tickets to the NCAA tournament have already been punched. Here’s what we know:

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College Hockey is back and Atlantic Hockey got some national attention over the weekend with Sacred Heart’s stunning win over UMass-Lowell, as well as Bentley taking down the University of Nebraska at Omaha. It is sure to be a great season for Atlantic Hockey and each week we’ll have new and updated power rankings for the league. Here are the rankings for Week 1:

1. Niagara (1-2, 1-0 AHA) – In a wild game in their home opener Niagara was down 3-0 midway through the first period to cross-town rival Canisius, but stormed back to win 6-4 for their first win of the season as well as getting off on the right foot in conference play. Niagara had already dropped two games to Clarkson earlier in the month. They will play their second straight conference game when they travel to Robert Morris this weekend.

2. Mercyhurst (0-3, 0-0 AHA) – Mercyhurst is 0-3 on the year, but those losses have come to national powers in Minnesota, Clarkson and Ferris State, all away from home. These games will only help them once the conference schedule starts to get going. They will continue with their tough schedule with two games against Merrimack this weekend.

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We’ve reached the last weekend of the regular season and there is still much to be decided. The only things we know for sure are Niagara will finish first and Sacred Heart will finish last. Everything in between will be decided this weekend.

1. Niagara – The regular season champions just continue to win. We’ll see if Dave Burkholder gives any of his regulars some rest this weekend at Air Force.

2. Air Force – The Falcons have locked up a first round bye but still have a lot to play for. They can finish as high as second if they win. They host Niagara this weekend. (more…)

The standings are becoming a little more clear. Niagara clinched the regular season title a few weeks ago and now Air Force has joined them in the first round bye. The Falcons hold a three point lead over third place UConn. If the Falcons just win, they’ll clinch the number two seed. This leaves two first round byes left, with UConn, Holy Cross and Robert Morris all in the running. Mercyhurst, RIT and Bentley can also gain the first round bye, but they need some help.

UConn has been on a roll at the right time, going 6-2 in February so far. That streak has propelled them to third in the standings and in position for a first round bye. A lot of the credit goes to Matt Grogan, who has gone 11-3-2 since taking over for Garrett Bartus. Grogan had played just 10 games entering this season. (more…)

Last week saw only three teams sweep (Air Force, American International, RIT) and the standings just continue to get tighter and tighter. Just seven points separate second place from 9th place, including a three-way tie for fourth. So far, only Niagara has locked up their playoff spot and with just two weeks left in the regular season, every point is huge.

1. Niagara – The Purple Eagles have locked up the regular season title and might be taking it easy a little bit. They suffered their second league loss of the month last week. It’s the second straight week that the Purple Eagle have lost a game. By the time the playoffs start, the Purple Eagles should be fine. (more…)

We’re coming into the last two weeks of the regular season and things are as jumbled as ever in Atlantic Hockey. There was some thought that the previous weeks would help clarify things, but that’s not what happened. The difference between second place and ninth is just seven points, with all nine of those team holding a shot of a first round bye.

Niagara officially clinched the regular season title, but stumbled into it as they split a series against Robert Morris. The Purple Eagles have lost two league games this month after losing just one the entire season. It could just be a little hiccup or maybe the Purple Eagles are declining a little. Either way, things don’t get any easier for the Purple Eagles. Their last four games are against Mercyhurst and Air Force, both fighting for second place. (more…)