Pairwise Live Blog, 2011

Posted by: adamw

10:08 p.m. — OK, that’s all from here … head over to the main site for a final bracket projection when the Denver-North Dakota game is done. The only issue is whether Denver winning makes things a little tricky from an intra-conference matchup perspective. If Denver is 5, it causes issues with No. 12 UNO — and likewise, Mich. bumping to 7 would cause conflict with No. 10 Western Michigan. If Denver loses the final, it stays 7 and Michigan 5, and so there’s no issue.

10:06 p.m. — Dartmouth wins the head-to-head comparison against RPI … but RPI wins 3 comparisons with teams above – Notre Dame, UNO and New Hampshire. That is the razor-thin difference. Those three comparisons for RPI are won on the strength of victories this year against Boston University and Bowling Green. Also, UNO had a loss to Huntsville while RPI swept Huntsville. That was the difference there. …. So, had Nebraska-Omaha not lost to Huntsville earlier this season, Dartmouth would be in the NCAAs right now, not RPI.

9:52 p.m. — Looks like Miami will win – up 5-2 late – so we’re basically down to 2 scenarios. The one we’ve had all day — and one with Denver winning. The main difference there is Michigan and Denver flip-flop, with Denver going to 5 and Mich. to 7. The rest stays the same, except BC and NoDak flip, though that’s pretty inconsequential.

9:43 p.m. – With the ECAC game a foregone conclusion, it means 2 games are up for grabs … which means there are only 4 remaining scenarios. One – if North Dakota and Miami win – is the projection we’ve been working off all day. Michigan has the widest remaining swing. If North Dakota and WMU win, Michigan is No. 4 overall … If Denver and Miami win, Michigan is No. 7 … In the other two scenarios, Michigan is No. 5.

9:32 p.m. — Boston College with late goal to win another Hockey East title. Things continue to go according to form. Our projected bracket still holds. Great run for Merrimack, and it’s not over yet.

9:24 p.m. — Air Force becomes the first team to officially earn an NCAA bid … 1-0 win. It has no effect on the rest of the bracket. AFA will return to Bridgeport, where it defeated Michigan in the 2009 Regional. Also – a delicious rematch with Yale.

8:04 p.m. — With everything remaining according to form so far today, the brackets we projected earlier would hold.

6:19 p.m. — Dartmouth is about to win. That rules out 4 ECAC teams in the tournament. Michigan has won its consolation game. That means Nebraska-Omaha is now in. Combined with Dartmouth’s impending win, it means Colorado College is now in too. So we’re down to RPI or Cornell for the final spot.

5:02 p.m. — More sighs of relief for anyone but Rensselaer fans, as Dartmouth takes a 2-1 lead. (Note: Having “Rensselaer” a possible NCAA Tournament team just makes life miserable for writers — having to write out “Rensselaer” every time, so as not to confuse RPI with the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI). Waah.)

4:29 p.m. — Strange dynamic as teams take the ice for the ECAC consolation: Dartmouth thinks it has a shot at the NCAAs, but it doesn’t. And losing would help the league potentially get 4 teams in the NCAAs.

4:17 p.m. — 2-1 Michigan after one. Omaha breathes easier for now.

3:55 p.m. Saturday — Notre Dame up early on Michigan in consolation game. Omaha fans starting to sweat a little.

11:56 a.m. Saturday (ET) — Check out the new Bracket ABCs article for a team-by-team breakdown of where things stand, and a first-look at a potential bracket.

11:43 p.m. — As a reader points out, if Denver, BC, Cornell, Colgate, Michigan, Miami and Air Force win … then Colorado College slips to No. 15 and is out.

11:03 p.m. — Ties for Colgate or Notre Dame would also be enough for UNO. … But other than that scenario, and some other fringe possibilities — it’s essentially down to this … Cornell wins, it’s in, obviously.  Cornell loses – then RPI sneaks in.

10:58 p.m. — Thanks to UNOmavmania on Twitter … if Cornell, Colgate, Notre Dame and Western win tomorrow, then UNO drops to 15th in Pairwise, and thus out, since Cornell would take that slot.  Otherwise, UNO is 14th and safe, even if Cornell makes it.

10:13 p.m. – Assuming Western holds on — other than the Cornell possibility, dare we say the NCAA field is set, and RPI will make it. As will UNO.

10:10 p.m. — Under “normal” scenario, no way now for Dartmouth to get in. This assumes Western holds on.

9:48 p.m. — Tick, tick, tick on Dartmouth

9:19 p.m. — Dartmouth trailing 2-0 going into the third, while Western Michigan up 2-0 over Michigan … Not looking good for the poor Big Green. How many times can they come close and then bomb out in the ECAC final four and fall short?

7:01 p.m. — Wins by Yale, Miami (pending) and RIT again, don’t move the needle much. These are all higher seeds winning, as projected. That helps the likes of Rensselaer though, and Colorado College, and Dartmouth (if Dartmouth can win this game tonight).

5:49 p.m. — Denver’s 6-2 win doesn’t mean much, except that Bemidji State is out of the mix for upsetting the apple cart.

4:58 p.m. Friday (ET) — Here we are, with five semifinal games going on. We won’t know any more than yesterday until some results start rolling in. Miami is winning big over Notre Dame right now, so Miami could be playing for a No. 1 seed tomorrow. Yale is tied with Colgate — if Yale wins, it clinches the No. 1 overall seed.

10:48 Thursday (ET) — Colorado College tops UAA, and improves its NCAA hopes dramatically. But not totally out of the woods yet. CC also hurts RPI’s (the school’s) chances, though the Engineers still have a good shot to make it despite not having played in two weeks. RPI’s chances now hinge on the following: Need Western Michigan to lose twice, need New Hampshire not to win Hockey East. Though the Engineers an absorb one of those if Dartmouth loses twice. A scenario where RPI is bumped out by New Hampshire winning HEA, or by Dartmouth not losing twice, is also the scenario that gets Boston University in.

7:21 Thursday (ET) — Bemidji State kicks off the weekend by winning on a power play in overtime. This will start making some people sweat, but it still must get through two more very tough games to continue the Cinderella run. This has no effect, because Minnesota-Duluth is safe, but UMD will now be a No. 3 seed instead of a possible No. 2 or No. 1.

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