Three Things I Think: Big Ten, Jan. 13
Posted by: Jashvina ShahBig Ten play resumed last weekend, as Penn State, Ohio State, Minnesota and Michigan combined for a couple overtime games. Michigan finished with the sweep, relegating the Gophers to fifth in the conference.
The Wolverines are now tied with Penn State for the Big Ten lead, and have one conference game on hand. After scoring 11 goals on the weekend, Michigan’s offense is ranked second in the country. Zach Hyman now has 26 points, and is eight away from doubling his total from last season.
Ohio State held a 4-1 lead over Penn State before the Nittany Lions scored four goals in the third period to tie the game. Ohio State salvaged the game but winning in overtime, and is now 2-3-0 against Big Ten opponents.
There’s not much to say about Wisconsin except the Badgers are still bad. They tied BU, but that happened partly because the Terriers scored in their own net.
(After the jump: Minnesota is in trouble, from goalkeeping to offense, why Michigan will win the Big Ten)
Minnesota is in trouble
Did I write this last week? Maybe. The Gophers aren’t playing badly, but they can’t afford to lose now. After dropping both games to Michigan last week, Minnesota fell to 16 in the PairWise. The Wolverines climbed up to No. 19, but it’s looking like the Big Ten might have just one team make the NCAA tournament.
The Gophers aren’t playing badly (their puck possession was decent against Michigan too, for advanced stats fans). But the Gophers are on a two-game losing streak. After starting the season 7-1, Minnesota is 3-6-1. And they just keep dropping in the PairWise.
While the PairWise isn’t indicative of how good a team is (I still think the Gophers are better than No. 16 in the country), it does determine which teams make the NCAA tournament. Given how badly the Big Ten has done in out-of-conference play… well, it’s making me nervous. For the conference and its chances of having more than one team in the tournament.
Minnesota gets a big break this weekend with games against Wisconsin, but will face Minnesota State at the North Star College Cup. And the Gophers could draw Minnesota-Duluth (which swept Minnesota in November) in the second game of that tournament.
A league built on goaltending becomes a league…
I was going to say a league built on offense, except the Big Ten lost a bunch of its top scorers after last season. Even so, the goaltending in the league isn’t as strong as it was last year.
Through this point last season, Minnesota was allowing 2.10 goals per game, the best in the conference. Right now Michigan State and Minnesota are tied for the league lead, but by allowing 2.56 goals per game. It might not be a major difference, but it’s interesting.
Last season the Big Ten boasted three of the nation’s top goalkeepers in Adam Wilcox, Joel Rumpel and Jake Hildebrand. I understand numbers aren’t everything, but the trio haven’t looked as strong as they did last season. (Especially Rumpel, but I wrote about that last week.)
But here’s a save percentage comparison, for fun. At this point last season, Wilcox had a save percentage of .925, Rumpel of .932 and Hildebrand of .922. The Big Ten goaltender with the highest save percentage is Eamon McAdam, who has a .918 save percentage. Wilcox’s save percentage is .910, Hildebrand’s .909 and Rumpel’s is .899.
Michigan will probably win the Big Ten tournament
If you’re keeping track at home, Michigan is the third team I’ve picked to win the Big Ten. First it was Minnesota, then it was Penn State.
But Michigan really impressed me in their Great Lakes Invitational win (especially without Dylan Larkin, who was incredible at the WJC). The two wins over Minnesota were pretty impressive too, and the Wolverines have looked consistent over the past few weeks.
And they have one of the most powerful offenses in the country. Michigan averages 3.84 goals per game, second by .02 goals to Minnesota State. Zach Hyman’s 26 points are tied for 12th in the country, while Dylan Larkin’s 1.18 points per game is third amongst freshmen.
The Wolverines have been moving up in the PairWise as well, and are No. 19 after sweeping Minnesota. But it’s still early, so Michigan might not be able to get an at-large bid. Right now, it’s looking like Big Ten’s NCAA tournament contender will have to go through Detroit.
