Three Things I Think: Hockey East, Feb. 9, 2015

Posted by: Joe Meloni

Once again, the 2015 Beanpot final and consolation game were postponed due to the ongoing wrath of whatever from high above the thing. Seriously, it’s been snowing for 24 hours, and it’s not supposed to stop until some time Tuesday.

The effect of the blizzard on college hockey has been widespread already. A number of games were postponed in the last few weeks. Tuesday night, Merrimack and Connecticut are scheduled to play a makeup game. If the Warriors can make it down to Hartford at this point, it’ll be a minor miracle.

Both Connecticut and Merrimack need this game badly if they plan to stay home for the first round of the Hockey East playoffs. UConn is currently in eighth place and in line to host a first-round series. Merrimack is just a game back of the Huskies with one game in hand.

It’s been a rough stretch for both clubs of late. UConn’s reliance on Rob Nichols was bound to catch up with it eventually. Just the same, Merrimack’s ability to control games has faded along with tougher competition.

It’ll be a tough matchup for either team in the playoffs. Merrimack, though, badly needs to stay in North Andover if it wants to see its season extend past that first week of the postseason.

The Warriors are 5-2-2 at home against Hockey East opponents. On the road, Merrimack is 0-6-0. Mark Dennehy’s system is designed to fit the dimensions at Lawler. The dimensions of the rink are the same as any other NHL-sizes sheet. The corners are tighter, though, and the arena itself is about as roomy as a coffin. Players and coaches visiting Lawler know it’s not and easy place to get wins.

Merrimack needs to stay home to advance to the league’s quarterfinals. Tuesday’s game with UConn is essentially a four-point fixture. Merrimack needs the win. And they need it badly.

Shocking as it is, Lowell’s collapse was inevitable

Count me as guilty as anyone for giving Massachusetts-Lowell too much credit for its success in the first half of the season. Offensively and defensively, the River Hawks are a good team. They haven’t been as thorough as most anticipated, but not too much has changed in those regards.

The difference for UML has been in goal. Kevin Boyle’s save percentage was .924 following a 2-0 win over Maine on Jan. 16. Since, his save percentage has plummeted to .863 for a season average of .909.

In two seasons at UMass before transferring to Lowell, Boyle was an .896 goalie. Obviously, the Minutemen are a vastly inferior defensive club than UML, especially during the 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons. Still, Boyle simply played way above his head through the first few months of the season.

There’s still plenty of time for the River Hawks to make some improvements. No one will want to see UML in the Hockey East and NCAA tournaments. The River Hawks’ ability to stifle even the best offenses is well documented. Single-elimination tournament rounds have a way of surprising us all.

Getting there will be the hard part for UML. Currently, the River Hawks are six points back of Hockey East leaders Boston University. The Terriers have two games in hand on UML as well.

A regular-season title is all but lost. The goal now has to be a first-round tournament bye. UML is in third with a one-point cushion on fourth-place Providence and two-point lead on fifth-place Notre Dame. However, both of those teams also have two games in hand on the River Hawks.

It’s not the easiest load left either. Saturday, UML hosts UMass for a third straight against the Minutemen, who defeated Lowell, 5-2, on Saturday night in Amherst. The teams also play next Friday, but the game is non-league. The team’s scheduled the third game to keep up the Alumni Cup series. After this weekend, UML heads to Boston College before hosting Vermont twice to end the season.

There are some points to be had, but the River Hawks may need all of them to avoid a preliminary round series and improve their positioning in the Pairwise.

We’re about to learn a lot about Notre Dame

Recent rumblings surrounding Notre Dame have less to do with hockey and more to do with politics. The Fighting Irish, apparently, don’t feel as though they’re a part of Hockey East.

None of this is particularly surprising. Indiana and New England don’t really have much in common. Moreover, the university’s insistence upon itself grows old quickly. None of that is really Jeff Jackson’s fault. The UND coach preferred a move to the NCHC rather than Hockey East after the CCHA dissolved, but TV money got in the way.

The mistake in treating college hockey like basketball and football is one that will likely become more of a problem down the road as new programs from major players in collegiate athletics consider hockey. Notre Dame wound up in Hockey East instead of the NCHC because of television contracts. It was a mistake even though it hasn’t been too much of a problem logistically. The Fighting Irish are good enough to compete in Hockey East most years. Just the same, UND’s presence in New England has always been strong. But most of that had to do with football. How many of the countless casual UND football fans out this way even knew the Fighting Irish had a hockey program?

All of that, though, is for a later day. At the moment, UND is one point out of fourth place in Hockey East with six leagues game remaining.

In almost every way, UND has been decidedly average this season. Its possession numbers are about even. They’ve scored a bit more than the average, but they’ve allowed just as many. The Fighting Irish are just an all right hockey team. There’s potential for more there, but, at this point in the season, most teams are what their record says they are.

Notre Dame is two games under .500 overall and one game over .500 in Hockey East. Jackson believes his team can be better. Its remaining schedule is the perfect chance to prove it. UND has two games remaining with Providence, Boston University and Boston College — all teams above it in the standings.

Hosting Providence — the team directly above it in the league standings — for a pair of games next weekend will likely decide UND’s plans for the first round of the Hockey East playoffs. Finishing in fifth place, with a likely series against UMass as the reward, shouldn’t be much of a problem. The bye would almost certainly be preferred, though.

Hockey East likely for three NCAA tournament teams

As it stands, Hockey East has four teams in the picture for the NCAA tournament. BU is No. 3 in the Pairwise, followed by No. 10 Providence, No. 11 BC and No. 15 UML.

Both Vermont (19) and Merrimack (21) are within striking distance, but they’ll to be almost perfect moving forward to get back in the mix.

Tuesday’s Merrimack-UConn game won’t have much of an impact on the rest of the league. However, a Merrimack win pushes the Warriors into up to 17 and drops Vermont to 20. A loss for Merrimack would basically end the Warrior chances to an at-large bid. They’d fall to 23rd and have a hell of a way back.

BU is essentially locked into at least an at-large bid at this point. PC and BC should get there just as well with good performances the rest of the way. The question now is UML, which, at 15, is just ahead of Harvard, St. Lawrence and Yale. While Harvard is in serious trouble due to injuries, St. Lawrence has won seven in a row and shows no signs of slowing down.

The River Hawks, of course, will be in good shape if they start winning hockey games. That hasn’t been easy, though.

Part of Hockey East’s reasoning behind the invitation was make it more likely that five teams would get into the NCAA tournament on a regular basis. The dominance of the NCHC this season, though, along with the strength of the WCHA’s best teams, has made it more difficult.

Most years, Hockey East should expect to get four teams into the NCAA tournament. There’s still a good chance it happens, but it’s going to be challenging the rest of the way.

Comments are closed.