The last weekend of Big Ten play features the top four teams fighting for the regular season championship and a bye. Michigan State is first, but just by one point over Michigan and Minnesota. The Nittany Lions are in fourth with 31 points.

Two series this weekend features those four teams, as Michigan and Michigan State will spar, while Minnesota hosts Penn State for two games. This weekend has huge PairWise implications for both Michigan and Minnesota, who may not be able to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.

Penn State hasn’t been hampered from the loss of Taylor Holstrom, and just swept Michigan. It’ll be a big matchup for Minnesota, which has to win both games to help its PairWise position.

The last series features Wisconsin and Ohio State. Both teams will finish fifth and sixth, regardless of their results. The Buckeyes may be fifth, but they’ve been one of the better teams in the conference lately.

With four teams so close and six points at stake in each series, there are a number of scenarios that could happen. I delved into some tie-breaking scenarios here, along with thoughts from some of the coaches.

While a bye day is different than a bye week, it could bode well for the inconsistent Big Ten teams. Especially because Michigan State is the only team with goalkeeping that’s consistent enough to win three games in three days.

Michigan State (16-14-2, 10-6-2 B1G) vs. Michigan (19-13-0, 11-7-0 B1G): March 13 at 7 p.m.; March 14 at 5 p.m.

The Spartans are surprisingly in first place. Since the Great Lakes Invitational, Michigan State has the best winning percentage in the conference. The defense, combined with Jake Hildebrand, have helped the Spartans to victories over Minnesota, Michigan and Penn State.

After a stretch of wins, the Wolverines have struggled over the past couple months. Last week, the Wolverines faced a Taylor Holstrom-less Penn State team, but couldn’t win. Being swept really hurt Michigan in the PairWise, and their only path to the NCAA tournament could be through the Big Ten championship.

Michigan knows what’s on the line this weekend, but the Spartans are a difficult team to play against. They’ve proved before they can limit Michigan’s high-powered offense, and earned a 2-1 win over the Wolverines in January.

Prediction: Series split

Minnesota (19-12-3, 10-5-3 B1G) vs. Penn State (18-12-4, 10-7-1 B1G): March 13 at 7 p.m. CT; March 14 at 7 p.m. CT

At the beginning of this season, Minnesota seemed a lock for the NCAA tournament, and a frontrunner for the championship. But this season has been very difficult, and the Gophers are close to missing the tournament. Minnesota just split its past three series with Ohio State, Michigan State and Penn State.

After a strong start to the season, Penn State has been inconsistent. Like Michigan, Penn State has a powerful offense. Even after losing Taylor Holstrom, one of the team’s top scorers, the Nittany Lions scored 10 total goals on the Wolverines last weekend.

I always find the Penn State-Minnesota matchup interesting. I liked both teams to start the season, but dropped off Penn State after the team’s struggles. Penn State’s performance against Michigan was impressive, but this is a really important series for Minnesota.

Prediction: Minnesota sweeps

Wisconsin (4-24-4, 2-14-2 B1G) vs. Ohio State (12-18-2, 7-11-0 B1G): March 13 at 7 p.m. CT; March 14 at 6 p.m. CT

The Badgers are on a five-game losing streak, dropping games to Michigan and Michigan State. Wisconsin is cemented in the Big Ten basement, but their abysmal season might be over soon.

The Badgers split their series with Ohio State earlier in the season, but the Buckeyes have been playing better, and playing spoiler lately. They split their past few series, taking games from Michigan, Minnesota and Penn State.

An unhealthy Ohio State team played well – at times – against its conference opponents. Now that the Buckeyes are almost healthy, they’ve been a difficult team to beat. I still think the Buckeyes have the second-best shot of winning the Big Ten tournament.

Prediction: Ohio State sweeps

Friday, March 13th, 2015 - 9:05 am | Big Ten, Blogs, Notes, Thoughts, Ramblings