Three Things I Think: Big Ten, March 1

Posted by: Jashvina Shah

With four teams in action this weekend, the two Big Ten series were close. Now we transition into the part of the season where conference tournaments have started, meaning other teams’ seasons are starting to end. The Big Ten still has a couple weekends left before its tournament commences.

The Gophers and Wolverines met in Minnesota for the anticipated matchup of the top two Big Ten teams. The series ended in a split, with Michigan winning 6-2 on Thursday and Minnesota winning 3-2 the next night in overtime. The Badgers and Buckeyes played in a couple shootouts. The teams tied 4-4 on Friday and then Ohio State won 6-5.

After the results, Minnesota has a one-point lead over Michigan. Penn State is seven points out of first and six out of the bye.

(After the jump: Are there no big games left, who’s going to play spoiler and who’s in and who should be worried)

Are there any big games left in the regular season?

The Minnesota-Michigan series was the one to watch. Now with just a couple weeks remaining, the season is down to just a few more series. The race for first is still close, but there are no more head-to-head matchups between the top two teams.

But, there are still a few interesting matchups left.

Ohio State will face booth Michigan and Michigan State, so the Buckeye-Wolverine contest is one to watch, since that series usually is a shootout. Ohio State is one of the teams that can match Michigan’s offense (the others being Penn State and oddly at times Wisconsin).  Another big series to watch is Michigan-Penn State, the last weekend of regular season play. That could help determine who gets first and who gets a bye, since the teams are second and third right now with not a lot of points separating them.

Who’s going to play spoiler 

There are only three teams in contention for first place or a bye spot – Minnesota, Michigan and Penn State. As I mentioned last weekend, that bye is really important because it’s very hard to win three days in a row. With three teams playing for the bye, there’s a slim margin of error for Minnesota and Michigan, which are holding a seven and six point lead.

Remember, each regulation and overtime win counts for three points. So there are 12 points up for grabs before the tournament for these teams.

And Ohio State’s the team that can ruin it. The Buckeyes have a two-game series against Michigan, and depending on who wins, the Buckeyes have a chance to set Michigan up for a bad position heading into the last weekend against Penn State.

Who’s in and who’s worried

After missing the NCAA tournament the past few years, Michigan is in a good spot in the PairWise at sixth. Penn State and Minnesota are in the bubble this year, with Penn state tied for 14th and Minnesota tied for 16th.

Depending on how the next couple of weekends go, we could see a reversal of last season where the Gophers need to win the tournament to get in but the Wolverines beat them in the championship game, getting the automatic bid. If that happens, the Gophers might not make the NCAA tournament. It’s still too early to tell, though.

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