Follow this live blog all weekend as we discuss the up-to-the-minute ramifications every game has on the Pairwise.
The Pairwise is the system used by the NCAA to select and seed the NCAA Tournament. For more on how it works, check out our Pairwise Primer. Also, check out our You Are the Committee tool, which allows you to plug in projected winners of every game this weekend and see how it would affect the Pairwise.
Follow this live blog all weekend as we discuss the up-to-the-minute ramifications of the games on the Pairwise.
The Pairwise is the system used by the NCAA to select and seed the NCAA Tournament. For more on how it works, check out our Pairwise Primer. Also, check out our You Are the Committee tool, which allows you to plug in projected winners of every game this weekend, and see how it would affect the Pairwise.
Saturday, 11:25 p.m. (ET) … As expected, BC and North Dakota both held on to win their third straight conference tournament titles. That means the field I have below is finalized, and the bracket I have is my final projection. We’ll find out how close I am Sunday at noon when the bracket is announced on ESPNU.
Saturday, 10:20 p.m. (ET) … Only two games still going on. BC leads Maine 3-1 in the third and North Dakota leads Denver 4-0 in the third. If those scores hold, this is what the field would look like (EDIT- this is now the final field):
1. Boston College
2. Michigan
3. Union
4. North Dakota
5. Miami
6. Ferris State
7. Minnesota-Duluth
8. Minnesota
9. Boston University
10. Maine
11. Denver
12. Massachusetts-Lowell
13. Cornell
14. Western Michigan
15. Michigan State
16. Air Force
Here’s what I think the bracket will look like:
Northeast Region, Worcester: 1. Boston College vs. 16. Air Force / 7. Minnesota-Duluth vs. 10. Maine
Midwest Region, Green Bay: 2. Michigan vs. 13. Cornell / 6. Ferris State vs. 11. Denver
East Region, Bridgeport: 3. Union vs. 15. Michigan State / 5. Miami vs. 12. Massachusetts-Lowell
West Region, St. Paul: 4. North Dakota vs. 14. Western Michigan / 8. Minnesota vs. 9. Boston University
Saturday, 9:55 p.m. (ET) … Union hangs on for a 3-1 win over Harvard to take its first-ever ECAC tournament title and clinch the No. 3 overall seed. Western Michigan hangs on for a 3-2 win over Michigan to grab its first CCHA tournament title since 1986 and clinch an NCAA berth. By virtue of Union’s win, Michigan State has clinched the last at-large spot. So the field is now set, although the Hockey East and WCHA finals will cause a little bit of jockeying once they go final.
Saturday, 9:45 p.m. (ET) … Going around the country- Western Michigan leads Michigan 3-2 in the third, Union leads Harvard 2-1 in the third, BC leads Maine 3-1 after two, North Dakota leads Denver 3-0 in the second. If those scores all hold, BC, Michigan, Union and North Dakota would be the one-seeds, and Michigan State would be the last team in. More to come once games start going final.
Saturday, 9:20 p.m. (ET) … Air Force beats RIT 4-0 to win the Atlantic title and clinch a spot in NCAAs. Northern Michigan has been eliminated. Michigan State needs Union to beat Harvard in order to get in.
Saturday, 8:45 p.m. (ET) … Going around the country- Air Force leads RIT 3-0 in the third, Western Michigan leads Michigan 2-0 in the second, Union and Harvard are scoreless in the second, BC leads Maine 2-0 after one, and North Dakota leads Denver 2-0 in the first.
If all the teams leading hang on, Michigan State would need Union to beat Harvard in order to get in. A Harvard win would leave the Spartans as the first team out. At the top of the Pairwise, Union and North Dakota can both clinch a one-seed with a win. I’ll have more analysis of what happens if one or both of them lose later, if needed.
Saturday, 7:45 p.m. (ET) … Air Force leads RIT 2-0 after one. I believe an Air Force win would eliminate Northern Michigan. It would also be good news for Michigan State. If Air Force hangs on, the only way the Spartans would be eliminated is if both Western Michigan and Harvard win. For Western Michigan, an Air Force win would mean the Broncos either need a win or a Harvard loss to get in.
Saturday, 6:45 p.m. (ET) … Both consolation games have gone final, as Miami beats Bowling Green 4-1 and Cornell beats Colgate 3-0. Miami winning means all the scenarios from my 4:15 p.m. update are still in play. Cornell’s win clinches a tournament spot for the Big Red and eliminates Merrimack from contention. Northern Michigan is still alive, although its chances did take a hit with the Cornell win. See my 1:45 a.m. update for what the Wildcats need.
Saturday, 4:15 p.m. (ET) … Miami leads Bowling Green 2-0 after one in the CCHA consolation. The RedHawks can still potentially grab a one-seed if they win. One way for that to happen would be for Harvard to beat Union and BC to beat Maine. If Union wins, they’ll need Denver to beat North Dakota and Maine to beat BC in order to move into the top four. If Maine wins, they’ll need Harvard and Denver to win.
Saturday, 1:00 p.m. (ET) … I’ve gotten a couple questions about Michigan State. The Spartans are in a very interesting position. Believe it or not, the Atlantic Hockey title game has a big effect on MSU’s chances. If Air Force wins, the Spartans just need one of Cornell, Harvard or Western Michigan to lose. If RIT wins, though, things get a bit more dicey for the Spartans. Then they would need Western Michigan to lose and at least one of Cornell or Harvard to lose.
Saturday, 11:45 a.m. (ET) … Cornell is in with a win or tie against Colgate in the ECAC consolation. If the Big Red tie, they can’t finish any worse than 14th, meaning they’d make the field even if Harvard wins the championship and moves the cut line up a spot. Cornell is out if it loses today.
In related news, Western Michigan would be out if it loses and both Harvard and Cornell make the field (i.e. Harvard wins and Cornell wins or ties). If the Broncos lose, they need one of Harvard or Cornell to lose in order to get in.
Saturday, 1:45 a.m. (ET) … Thanks to reader Matt Wellens for pointing out a way Northern Michigan gets in without Cornell losing on Saturday. If Western Michigan, Union and RIT all win on Saturday, the Wildcats are in. In this scenario, they jump ahead of Michigan State (who ends up out), so it wouldn’t matter what Cornell does.
If Cornell does lose in this scenario, Merrimack gets in ahead of Michigan State and Cornell for the last at-large spot. So, as crazy as it sounds, there is still a way for both Northern Michigan and Merrimack to get in despite both of them being on the outside looking in right now. Merrimack can get in with Union, Colgate and RIT wins, and help elsewhere. The simplest “help elsewhere” scenario is Western Michigan beating Michigan. Northern Michigan also makes it in that scenario.
Be sure to check out Jim Dahl’s blog on SiouxSports.com for a complete breakdown of where each team can finish heading into the final day. The biggest things to take from that are that BC is locked into the No. 1 overall spot, Michigan is locked into the No. 2 overall spot, and Union and North Dakota can both clinch a one-seed by winning on Saturday.
Saturday, 12:05 a.m. (ET) … Michigan beats Bowling Green 3-2 in double overtime. Bubble teams breath a sigh of relief as the Falcons’ cinderella run comes to an end. With the win, the Wolverines move up to second in the Pairwise. They appear to have locked up a one-seed.
Harvard is the only team left that can steal a bid aside from the Atlantic Hockey champ. Cornell and Western Michigan are in with a win tomorrow. Michigan State seems like a lock in most scenarios where Harvard doesn’t steal a spot.
Northern Michigan needs Cornell to lose and Union to win to get in, while Merrimack needs Cornell to lose, Union to win, RIT to win, and more. We’ll see if we can figure out what that “more” is before the end of the night.
Here’s what the bracket would look like if all the higher seeds win tomorrow:
Northeast Region, Worcester: 1. Boston College vs. 16. Air Force / 8. Minnesota-Duluth vs. 9. Boston University
Midwest Region, Green Bay: 2. Michigan vs. 13. Cornell / 7. North Dakota vs. 11. Maine
East Region, Bridgeport: 3. Union vs. 15. Western Michigan / 5. Miami vs. 12. Massachusetts-Lowell
West Region, St. Paul: 4. Denver vs. 14. Michigan State / 6. Ferris State vs. 10. Minnesota
Friday, 11:10 p.m. (ET) … Maine beats BU 5-3 to set up a BC-Maine Hockey East final. The Black Bears are up to sixth in the Pairwise, while BU drops to 10th for the time being. Maine will likely be a two-seed with a win tomorrow, but has an outside shot at a one-seed. BU will likely finish somewhere in the 8-10 range, so it could be a two- or three-seed. More coming later.
Friday, 10:40 p.m. (ET) … North Dakota beats Minnesota 6-3 to set up a North Dakota-Denver WCHA final. The Fighting Sioux are fifth in the Pairwise right now, and it appears that a win tomorrow clinches a one-seed for them. A loss likely keeps them as a two-seed. Meanwhile, Minnesota is now eighth in the Pairwise and will be a two- or three-seed depending on what happens around the country tomorrow.
Elsewhere, Michigan and Bowling Green are in overtime and Maine leads BU 4-3 midway through the third. More on those games once they go final.
Friday, 9:55 p.m. (ET) … Harvard beats Cornell 6-1 to set up a Harvard-Union matchup in the ECAC title game. Bubble teams are starting to sweat a little, as the Crimson are now one win away from stealing a bid, and Bowling Green (another team that could steal a bid) leads Michigan 2-1 early in the third in the CCHA semis.
Cornell is most likely in with a win over Colgate in the ECAC consolation game. The Big Red could still get in even with a loss in that game, but it’s worth remembering that Harvard and Bowling Green can steal bubble spots.
In Atlantic Hockey, RIT beat Niagara 2-1 in overtime to set up an Air Force-RIT final. The winner of that game gets the autobid, while the loser is out. Believe it or not, Northern Michigan and Merrimack are both still alive. Both need Cornell to lose again tomorrow and have neither Harvard nor Bowling Green steal a spot, among other things. Mike McMahon has a great breakdown of what Merrimack needs over at The Mack Report.
Friday, 7:35 p.m. (ET) … Boston College beats Providence 4-2. This doesn’t really do anything except solidify BC as the top overall seed and eliminate another potential upset champion. Only Bowling Green and Harvard are left to potentially steal a bid, meaning everyone 13th or higher is safe. Miami, BU and UMass-Lowell are now mathematical locks to make the field.
Friday, 7:15 p.m. (ET) … Western Michigan smokes a hot Miami team, 6-2, to advance to the CCHA championship game. That’s a big boost to the Broncos’ NCAA hopes, although it doesn’t quite lock up a spot for them just yet. They’re 14th right now, and it would take a couple upset champions to knock them out. Meanwhile, the RedHawks drop to 10th in the Pairwise and appear to be locked into a two- or three-seed. Also, Western’s win means Northern Michigan needs Cornell to lose tonight to stay alive for an at-large berth. If Cornell wins, I believe the Wildcats are eliminated.
Friday, 7:00 p.m. (ET) … Denver beats Minnesota-Duluth 4-3 in double overtime on a Zac Larraza winner. As far as I can tell, UMD losing means Boston College is the No. 1 overall seed regardless of what the Eagles do this weekend. UMD will most likely be a two-seed, although there’s a chance of dropping to a three. Denver will likely be a two-seed if it wins Saturday or a three-seed if it loses.
Friday, 6:45 p.m. (ET) … We have our first two finals of the day, as Union beats Colgate 6-2 and Air Force beats Mercyhurst 5-2. Union is fourth in the Pairwise as of right now and appears to be a lock for at least a two-seed. Colgate losing means there is one less team that can steal a bubble spot. Out west, Denver and Minnesota-Duluth are battling in double overtime, tied 3-3.
Friday, 10:35 a.m. (ET) … Ten semifinal games on the docket today. Of the teams that are playing, BC, Michigan, Minnesota-Duluth, Minnesota and North Dakota all appear to be mathematical locks to make the field already. Miami, BU, Maine, Denver and Union all look safe as well, although there may be a very small possibility of one of them being left out with a loss tonight and a bunch of upsets. For teams not playing, Ferris State is a mathematical lock and UMass-Lowell looks pretty safe.
Assuming those 12 teams all make it, that leaves three at-large spots up for grabs, barring upset champions. Cornell and Western Michigan can both greatly improve their chances of making it with a win tonight, although neither of them lock up a spot with a win alone. Likewise, neither can be knocked out with a loss.
Michigan State, Northern Michigan and Merrimack are all bubble teams not playing this weekend. As far as I can tell, Michigan State cannot be eliminated tonight. In fact, I believe the Spartans clinch a spot if all the higher seeds win tonight. Northern Michigan needs either Western Michigan or Cornell to lose in order to stay alive. If both win tonight, I can’t find a way to get the Wildcats in. Merrimack needs Maine to beat BU, Harvard to beat Cornell, and Union to beat Colgate. If any one of those don’t happen, the Warriors are done. Western Michigan losing would be helpful as well.
It’s worth noting that if MSU, Northern and Merrimack finish in a three-way tie for the last at-large spot (which could happen), they would split the comparisons with each other, but MSU would have the highest RPI and thus make the field.
Thursday, 11:15 p.m. (ET) … Before we call it a night, let’s see what the bracket would look like if the higher seed won every remaining game (which, by the way, I don’t expect to happen).
Northeast Region, Worcester: 1. Boston College vs. 16. Air Force / 8. Miami vs. 9. Massachusetts-Lowell
Midwest Region, Green Bay: 2. Michigan vs. 13. Cornell / 6. Ferris State vs. 12. Denver
West Region, St. Paul: 3. Minnesota-Duluth vs. 15. Western Michigan / 5. Minnesota vs. 11. Maine
East Region, Bridgeport: 4. Boston University vs. 14. Michigan State / 7. Union vs. 10. North Dakota
It’s far from perfect in terms of bracket integrity, but it looks good attendance-wise and avoids any intra-conference matchups in the first round. The only liberty I took was swapping the Ferris-Denver and Union-North Dakota games to bring Union east and help Bridgeport’s attendance. Putting Ferris in Green Bay saves a flight, too.
Thursday, 10:36 p.m. (ET) … North Dakota moves on to the WCHA semifinals after beating St. Cloud State, 4-1. Bubble teams have to be happy with tonight’s results, as that’s two fewer teams that can steal a bid. North Dakota will likely be a two-seed if it beats Minnesota tomorrow. If not, it will likely stay a three. The Fighting Sioux appear to be a lock to make the field at this point.
Thursday, 6:10 p.m. (ET) … Denver pulls out an OT win over Michigan Tech. That’s one less team the bubble teams have to worry about. Denver is looking OK. A loss on Friday could still drop the Pioneers down to 13 at the lowest, it seems. So, barring three conference upsets, they should be OK. Thing is, St. Cloud winning it all bumped Denver up to 11 in scenarios I ran, so Denver would be safe regardless.
10:08 p.m. — OK, that’s all from here … head over to the main site for a final bracket projection when the Denver-North Dakota game is done. The only issue is whether Denver winning makes things a little tricky from an intra-conference matchup perspective. If Denver is 5, it causes issues with No. 12 UNO — and likewise, Mich. bumping to 7 would cause conflict with No. 10 Western Michigan. If Denver loses the final, it stays 7 and Michigan 5, and so there’s no issue.
10:06 p.m. – Dartmouth wins the head-to-head comparison against RPI … but RPI wins 3 comparisons with teams above – Notre Dame, UNO and New Hampshire. That is the razor-thin difference. Those three comparisons for RPI are won on the strength of victories this year against Boston University and Bowling Green. Also, UNO had a loss to Huntsville while RPI swept Huntsville. That was the difference there. …. So, had Nebraska-Omaha not lost to Huntsville earlier this season, Dartmouth would be in the NCAAs right now, not RPI.
9:52 p.m. — Looks like Miami will win – up 5-2 late – so we’re basically down to 2 scenarios. The one we’ve had all day — and one with Denver winning. The main difference there is Michigan and Denver flip-flop, with Denver going to 5 and Mich. to 7. The rest stays the same, except BC and NoDak flip, though that’s pretty inconsequential.
9:43 p.m. – With the ECAC game a foregone conclusion, it means 2 games are up for grabs … which means there are only 4 remaining scenarios. One – if North Dakota and Miami win – is the projection we’ve been working off all day. Michigan has the widest remaining swing. If North Dakota and WMU win, Michigan is No. 4 overall … If Denver and Miami win, Michigan is No. 7 … In the other two scenarios, Michigan is No. 5.
9:32 p.m. — Boston College with late goal to win another Hockey East title. Things continue to go according to form. Our projected bracket still holds. Great run for Merrimack, and it’s not over yet.
9:24 p.m. — Air Force becomes the first team to officially earn an NCAA bid … 1-0 win. It has no effect on the rest of the bracket. AFA will return to Bridgeport, where it defeated Michigan in the 2009 Regional. Also – a delicious rematch with Yale.
8:04 p.m. — With everything remaining according to form so far today, the brackets we projected earlier would hold.
6:19 p.m. — Dartmouth is about to win. That rules out 4 ECAC teams in the tournament. Michigan has won its consolation game. That means Nebraska-Omaha is now in. Combined with Dartmouth’s impending win, it means Colorado College is now in too. So we’re down to RPI or Cornell for the final spot.
5:02 p.m. — More sighs of relief for anyone but Rensselaer fans, as Dartmouth takes a 2-1 lead. (Note: Having “Rensselaer” a possible NCAA Tournament team just makes life miserable for writers — having to write out “Rensselaer” every time, so as not to confuse RPI with the Ratings Percentage Index (RPI). Waah.)
4:29 p.m. — Strange dynamic as teams take the ice for the ECAC consolation: Dartmouth thinks it has a shot at the NCAAs, but it doesn’t. And losing would help the league potentially get 4 teams in the NCAAs.
4:17 p.m. — 2-1 Michigan after one. Omaha breathes easier for now.
3:55 p.m. Saturday — Notre Dame up early on Michigan in consolation game. Omaha fans starting to sweat a little.
11:56 a.m. Saturday (ET) — Check out the new Bracket ABCs article for a team-by-team breakdown of where things stand, and a first-look at a potential bracket.
11:43 p.m. — As a reader points out, if Denver, BC, Cornell, Colgate, Michigan, Miami and Air Force win … then Colorado College slips to No. 15 and is out.
11:03 p.m. — Ties for Colgate or Notre Dame would also be enough for UNO. … But other than that scenario, and some other fringe possibilities — it’s essentially down to this … Cornell wins, it’s in, obviously. Cornell loses – then RPI sneaks in.
10:58 p.m. — Thanks to UNOmavmania on Twitter … if Cornell, Colgate, Notre Dame and Western win tomorrow, then UNO drops to 15th in Pairwise, and thus out, since Cornell would take that slot. Otherwise, UNO is 14th and safe, even if Cornell makes it.
10:13 p.m. – Assuming Western holds on — other than the Cornell possibility, dare we say the NCAA field is set, and RPI will make it. As will UNO.
10:10 p.m. — Under “normal” scenario, no way now for Dartmouth to get in. This assumes Western holds on.
9:48 p.m. — Tick, tick, tick on Dartmouth
9:19 p.m. — Dartmouth trailing 2-0 going into the third, while Western Michigan up 2-0 over Michigan … Not looking good for the poor Big Green. How many times can they come close and then bomb out in the ECAC final four and fall short?
7:01 p.m. — Wins by Yale, Miami (pending) and RIT again, don’t move the needle much. These are all higher seeds winning, as projected. That helps the likes of Rensselaer though, and Colorado College, and Dartmouth (if Dartmouth can win this game tonight).
5:49 p.m. — Denver’s 6-2 win doesn’t mean much, except that Bemidji State is out of the mix for upsetting the apple cart.
4:58 p.m. Friday (ET) — Here we are, with five semifinal games going on. We won’t know any more than yesterday until some results start rolling in. Miami is winning big over Notre Dame right now, so Miami could be playing for a No. 1 seed tomorrow. Yale is tied with Colgate — if Yale wins, it clinches the No. 1 overall seed.
10:48 Thursday (ET) — Colorado College tops UAA, and improves its NCAA hopes dramatically. But not totally out of the woods yet. CC also hurts RPI’s (the school’s) chances, though the Engineers still have a good shot to make it despite not having played in two weeks. RPI’s chances now hinge on the following: Need Western Michigan to lose twice, need New Hampshire not to win Hockey East. Though the Engineers an absorb one of those if Dartmouth loses twice. A scenario where RPI is bumped out by New Hampshire winning HEA, or by Dartmouth not losing twice, is also the scenario that gets Boston University in.
7:21 Thursday (ET) — Bemidji State kicks off the weekend by winning on a power play in overtime. This will start making some people sweat, but it still must get through two more very tough games to continue the Cinderella run. This has no effect, because Minnesota-Duluth is safe, but UMD will now be a No. 3 seed instead of a possible No. 2 or No. 1.
10:58 p.m. — OK, it’s time to check the main site for the final bracket projections, analysis and explanation. http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2010/03/20_bracket.php …. That’s all for this year’s live blog.
10:39 p.m. — North Dakota wins WCHA championship. The games are over. The field is set. Our bracket projection is on the way.
10:20 p.m. — Boston College wins 7-6 OT thriller. Vermont is in. The field is set. Waiting on North Dakota-SCSU for final seedings.
10:06 p.m. – Michigan’s win knocks out Ferris State. Assuming North Dakota hangs on in the WCHA, for the moment (no offense, Huskies fans), then it comes down to this: Maine wins, it is in obviously … Maine loses, Vermont hangs on.
9:46 p.m. — Alaska and New Hampshire are now in thanks to the results so far. Wins by Michigan and Maine would knock Ferris State and Vermont out.
9:40 p.m. — Cornell and RIT win. Cornell’s win helps the bubble teams. But UMD is out.
8:55 p.m. — RIT up 5-0 in the third. UMD, going to be eliminated.
7:56 p.m. — That RIT 2-0 lead is not making Minnesota-Duluth happy, but so far, the rest is OK for them.
5:52 p.m. — Miami wins the CCHA consolation game over Ferris State, and gets the No. 1 overall seed. Ferris State, as we noted in the earlier Bubble Analysis, is still OK if there are no “upsets.” New Hampshire is still OK without upsets. If Sacred Heart wins in the Atlantic, UNH is a lock, and it also helps Duluth jump over Vermont. If RIT wins, Vermont and UNH will be in if there’s no upsets. Remember, the bubble teams want Northern Michigan, Cornell and Boston College to win the championship games of their leagues.
5:35 p.m. – Wisconsin wins the WCHA consolation game over Denver. This locks the Badgers to the No. 3 slot overall. Denver will be No. 2 if Miami wins the CCHA consolation, No. 1 overall otherwise.
Saturday, 3:02 p.m. — Waiting for the consolation games to start. Here is a detailed Bubble Analysis just published for mass consumption.
Saturday, 2:42 a.m. — We’re still awake … and let’s see what happens if the “favorites” win out.
1 Denver
2 Miami
3t [AQ] Boston College
3t Wisconsin
3t [AQ] St. Cloud State
6 North Dakota
7 [AQ] Cornell
8 Bemidji State
9 [AQ] Northern Michigan
10 Yale
11 Alaska
12t New Hampshire
12t Vermont
12t Ferris State
In this scenario, Ferris State is the last team in. If this happens, I think it would produce a bracket that looks like this:
West Region, St. Paul: 4. Wisconsin vs. 13. Vermont / 5. St. Cloud State vs. 12. New Hampshire
Midwest Region, Fort Wayne: 2. Miami vs. 15. RIT / 7. Cornell vs. 9. Northern Michigan
East Region, Albany: 1. Denver vs. 16. Alabama-Huntsville / 8. Bemidji State vs. 10. Yale
Northeast Region, Worcester: 3. Boston College vs. 14. Ferris State / 6. North Dakota vs. 11. Alaska
The only intra-conference matchup that has to be avoided is 7-10, Cornell vs. Yale. And the committee could flip-flop 9-10, or flip-flop 10-11. It’s a total guess at that point as to which it would be. It could just as easily be Cornell-Alaska, Bemidji State-NMU, North Dakota-Yale.
The other question is whether Denver would be in St. Paul, or take the “flight is a flight” and move it to Albany, leaving Wisconsin in St. Paul with St. Cloud State. You would just flop the whole bracket at that point.
Now — can we really call Michigan an underdog at this point? If Michigan wins, Yale and NMU flip-flop, which is basically no big deal, since it changes nothing. What happens here is that Ferris State drops out, New Hampshire goes to 11, Michigan to 12, Alaska to 13, Vermont to 14. Then you have:
West Region, St. Paul: 4. Wisconsin vs. 14. Vermont / 5. St. Cloud State vs. 12. Michigan
Midwest Region, Fort Wayne: 2. Miami vs. 15. RIT / 7. Cornell vs. 10. Northern Michigan
East Region, Albany: 1. Denver vs. 16. Alabama-Huntsville / 8. Bemidji State vs. 9. Yale
Northeast Region, Worcester: 3. Boston College vs. 13. Alaska / 6. North Dakota vs. 11. New Hampshire
The only intra-conference game to avoid here would be BC-Vermont, so Vermont is flip-flopped with Alaska, which is a no-brainer vis-a-vis flipping Vermont with RIT.
Take the same scenario, but instead Sacred Heart wins, and Vermont drops out with Ferris State going back in.
And then there’s a ton of other scenarios, and not enough time or space to do them all right now. So play around with You Are the Committee.
Who is in …
Denver
Miami
North Dakota
Boston College
Wisconsin
St. Cloud State
Bemidji State
Cornell
Yale
Northern Michigan
If there are no “upsets” … then these teams are also in:
Alaska
Ferris State
New Hampshire
That’s 13 … Slots 15-16 are the Atlantic champ and Alabama-Huntsville. That leaves slot 14 to go to Minnesota-Duluth or Vermont.
With upsets … explore at your own peril.
8:53 p.m. — Waiting on those late game results. With Cornell, BC, RIT already winning, so far, that’s what matters for those on the bubble. The late games won’t have much bearing anymore — for today.
7:30 p.m. — OK, looks to me like Duluth needs RIT to lose — that helps a little. And also needs Ferris State to lose the consolation game in the CCHA. Ferris would still make it, but it would allow UMD to win the FSU comparison, and thus jump over Vermont — because UMD has a better RPI than Vermont. But this doesn’t work unless RIT also loses. UMD needs that extra little bit. There may be another scenario though.
7:25 p.m. — Northern Michigan wins in OT. I think this hurts UMD. Will report back soon.
7:05 p.m. — Just had the pleasure of informing both Cornell and Yale officials that they were in.
6:19 p.m. — Cornell wins 3-0, locks up the NCAAs.
6:13 p.m. — RIT wins 4-0. That just basically shores up its spot as a TUC. That comes into play because if RIT lost, UMass would re-become a TUC, affecting some things — namely taking away a comparison win from UMD, and helping BC.
6:00 p.m. – Cornell goes up 2-0, looking to salt away its NCAA bid.
5:42 p.m. — St. Cloud State wins 2-0 over Wisconsin. This doesn’t directly affect the Pairwise much. If SCSU wins tomorrow, or Wisconsin loses again, then it could move the needle. Right now, it’s status quo — Wisconsin still in position for a No. 1 seed. But remember, Wisconsin will play either Denver or North Dakota in the consolation game — certainly no easy task.
4:57 p.m. — And we’re here in Albany, awaiting the first wave of results from the semifinals, to see how things shake down.
Friday, 10:14 a.m. — It’s been written elsewhere that UMD is eliminated. This is not true. While I also thought the same thing Monday, that one loss would mean the end of UMD, after seeing what happened with last night’s result, I see that’s not the case (as explained in last night’s post). … Using You Are the Committee (isn’t everyone?), here is one scenario where UMD gets in — plug this in, and you’ll see UMD at No. 14, tied with Vermont but winning the comparison because of RPI — EVEN THOUGH it’s Vermont’s win over UMD earlier this season that is basically causing the Bulldogs’ precarious situation to begin with.
I believe this relies upon Northern Michigan losing two games. UMD then takes that comparison, even though NMU would stay ahead of UMD in the overall Pairwise. Obviously, this also relies upon BC and Cornell winning their respective tournaments.
11:35 p.m. — In the last Bracket ABCs article, we wrote that UMD would immediately lose comparisons to three teams, including UNH, with a loss. However, somehow, UMD is actually hanging by a thread. If you go to the Pairwise Comparisons Grid page, you’ll see that UMD is still edging UNH in the comparison. RPIs are showing as exactly tied — .5335 — but UMD must be up by some minuscule margin. It had appeared UMD would drop below UNH in RPI, and thus lose that comparison. But because it is hanging by that thread, it is also hanging by a thread in the Pairwise — in the 14th and final slot at the moment.
10:47 p.m. — North Dakota wins 2-0. Minnesota-Duluth, as expected, subsequently drops into a tie for 14th in the Pairwise. That’s the final spot, but other things have to happen this weekend, and it will conspire to knock out the Bulldogs. Check out You Are the Committee and see if you can keep them in.
Thursday, 9:41 p.m. — We’re here a day early, just to give a reminder that Minnesota-Duluth will be all but officially eliminated with a loss at the Final Five. That game is 0-0 headed into the third. UMD is the only team of the five in St. Paul that doesn’t already have an NCAA spot locked up.
It starts Friday, March 19. See Tournament Watch for details.
11:41 p.m. — OK, our final analysis with predicted bracket is up. Good night.
9:45 p.m. — Assuming Michigan wins (up 2-0, sorry Miami) just for argument’s sake, then the only difference to Pairwise on the Minnesota-Denver game is whether Minnesota is 10, Clarkson 11 – or vice versa. But I’ve got some work to do to sort out the brackets, because Wisconsin messes everything up and there’s a number of ways the committee can go. It’s not going to be cut and dried this year folks. There will be 50/50 decisions that won’t necessarily be wrong, per se, either way — but will create a lot of stir. Fun year! I’ll have one more update – then off to write the final Bracket Analysis/Prediction piece for the night.
9:30 p.m. — We know the field. With Princeton and BC winning, Wisconsin is in, Minnesota State is out. I never thought it would actually happen. Wow. Wisconsin is No. 12, despite being under .500 … unless Minnesota and Miami win the remaining games, in which case Wisconsin is No. 13 and Notre Dame is 12. Wisconsin causes problems no matter how you slice it, but probably more at 12 than at 13. … More coming …
8:52 p.m. — Playing off our commenter below, who said it would be unfair that Wisconsin gets in over Minnesota State given all the things he’s mentioned …. It’s worth looking into more deeply right now, as it gets closer to reality. Princeton and BC are both leading. If it holds, with Denver and Michigan winning, for instance, it means Wisconsin is No. 12, Notre Dame 13, and Minnesota State is out. … So, why? Well, in a nutshell, Minnesota State wins the comparison with Wisconsin straight up … but Wisconsin wins comparisons with Northern Michigan and Princeton that Minnesota State doesn’t win. Princeton wins that comparison basically because it defeated Nebraska-Omaha (the day after losing to Minnesota State ironically), while Minnesota State lost two games to UNO. Likewise with Northern Michigan — NMU was 2-0 against UNO this year. So the Mavericks will be out of the tournament because of two losses to the other Mavericks.
8:28 p.m. — NESN broadcaster Tom Caron just said that BC could be a No. 1 seed with a win. Earlier, the Northern Michigan radio broadcasters said Notre Dame was out because the Irish lost. … We hate to be high and mighty about (oh, no we don’t), but with the treasure trove of information out there on the Internet, it really is inexcusable not to know this stuff. Even if you had no idea CHN and USCHO existed, if were doing some homework on the game, you’d figure you’d go to Google and do a search for some info – and you’re just bound to stumble on these two sites with more info than you can possibly hope to ask for. No other NCAA sport besides basketball and football has those resources. Do these guys just not know that the Pairwise system exists? Or are they understandably dizzied by it so choose to gloss over it? … OK, off the soap box.
8:00 p.m. – There are still people in “other” chat areas/boards who are making the same mistake because they haven’t been reading here the last couple of years. I still see people putting Boston College No. 6 overall and Denver No. 7. This is currently impossible. BC and Denver can be tied in overall comparisons won, and the tiebreaker is RPI, which Denver has a significant advantage. True that BC wins the head-to-head comparison between the two teams, but that doesn’t matter anymore. We’ve written extensively about that the last few years, and it bore itself out last year when a tie was broken via RPI. It confused people then. If you’ve got any friends “over there,” you may want to let them know to take a peek over here.
7:55 p.m. – Someone didn’t give Jeff Jackson the memo. I didn’t realize this, but he pulled the goalie in the loss to NMU. Give him credit for playing it straight … or for not reading CHN.
7:00 p.m. — Our commenter below is correct. That combination does yield Wisconsin as No. 13. That creates problems. That means we go back to the nightmare scenario we mentioned in a Bracket ABCs article a couple of weeks ago, where Michigan is the No. 1 overall seed and slated to be in Madison, but then has to play No. 13 Wisconsin in the Badgers’ building. If that happens, Michigan (or Miami, sorry) will be moved, and it will cause massive reshuffling.
6:18 p.m. – Good thing for this breather between games. I’m hungry. An appetite of slide rules and NCAA handbooks is not sustenance.
5:50 p.m. — So here’s the deal with the rest …. i.e. Wisconsin. The Badgers can get in as the No. 12 overall, or not at all. This rests on Princeton and Vermont. … Right now, Wisconsin is in a tie in “Pairwise Comparison Wins,” but has the worst RPI of those teams it’s tied with, so it’s out of the tournament. But if Princeton wins (actually, more like, if Harvard loses) Harvard’s RPI drops below Wisconsin’s, and Wisconsin takes the comparison with Harvard. That breaks the deadlock in Wisconsin’s favor and jumps it over all those other teams it’s tied with, all the way up to 12th. … However, Vermont can mess it up too. If Vermont wins HEA, it gets the autobid, as we know. But it doesn’t just get the 13th spot as an autobid — it actually flips the comparison with Wisconsin by going past the Badgers in RPI. Thus, Wisconsin would lose what it just gained with Harvard, dropping the Badgers back into that tie, and out of the tournament. … Minnesota State is like an afterthought in this. But the Mavericks need Harvard to win (thus knocking Wisconsin out), and Boston College to win, thus knocking Vermont out. No direct comparisons with MSU are affected.
5:40 p.m. — Notre Dame officially lost. I wasn’t there. I don’t know how they played. Doesn’t matter. The whole point is moot now. Notre Dame is in.
5:32 p.m. — North Dakota wins. The Sioux are No. 3. We’re No. 3, We’re No. 3.
5:24 p.m. — One of our minions, Ron Ayers, just IM’d me and said that, if Notre Dame tanks its game, the committee should leave them out of the tournament. I call bullsh*t on that. They knew the rules, they played by the rules. They shouldn’t be penalized for that. If anything, it should point out the folly of the rule. The committee should change the criteria, not penalize Notre Dame. (update: Ron wants to make it clear that he said “don’t be surprised” – not that it should happen. OK Ron, poetic license my man.)
5:10 p.m. — Notre Dame trailing 2-1 to NMU. Maybe they’re just going to tank the rest of this one so they can make the NCAAs. ?!?!?
3:33 p.m. — Consolation game has already begun in St. Paul. CC up 1-0. CC winning solves the dilemma currently being discussed in the comments section of the bracket analysis article linked below – with UNH and North Dakota.
11:44 a.m. — OK, we’re here in Albany, and the ECACs will be played out later. Lots of ramifications here and elsewhere. This will be the spot to keep an eye on as things unfold. We’ll tell you what it all means. In the mean time, we tried to lay out the likely scenarios in the final Bracket Analysis article. There’s also the tale of the TUC Cliff, and how it affects Notre Dame and Minnesota State this year.
4:00 a.m. – Yeah, that’s right, 4 a.m. … Had some trouble connecting back on. Finally able to tell everyone that our poster is indeed right. UNH will slip to No. 4 overall if North Dakota wins the consolation. Sorry for missing that earlier.
11:30 p.m. — Well, interesting stuff now, as the picture becomes a little clearer. Well, at least the amount of combinations gets down to a manageable level. It’s still confusing. … Here’s the deal for Wisconsin … it needs Princeton to win the ECACs, and for Notre Dame to lose the CCHA consolation. Then it’s in, probably as a No. 3 seed. Wacky. … Otherwise, Notre Dame and Minnesota State are in. Actually, Boston University winning HEA can also upset things for Notre Dame. … Miami/Michigan will be 1-2 depending on who wins CCHA final. UNH is No. 3 for sure. I believe North Dakota-CC are 4-5 depending on who wins the consolation, but either way, both will be in Colorado Springs. … I’m going to have a full article on this later on the main site. Stay tuned, and be back at the Pairwise live blog Saturday night.
10:11 – According to Google Maps, it’s 386 miles from Ann Arbor to Madison … and it’s 598 miles from Ann Arbor to Albany, N.Y. … So, if Michigan wins the CCHA tournament and is the No. 1 overall seed, expect the Wolverines to go to Madison ….. UNLESS Wisconsin makes the tournament, in which case, the committee will look to protect Michigan and send it to Albany. After all, a flight is a flight. Of course, Michigan hasn’t won anything yet. It’s still tied in the semis with Northern for crissakes. If Miami beats Michigan in the final, there’s one scenario where the teams are tied in the Pairwise, but Michigan has a .0003 edge in RPI to take No. 1 overall. A Vermont win in Hockey East helps Miami possibly be No. 1 overall. … As for New Hampshire, looks like it is sealed as a No. 1 seed also.
10:00 p.m. – Well, Boston College‘s win throws a monkey wrench into things. For some reason, the scenarios I kept running had to do with UNH winning. So let’s see what we’ve got here.
9:33 p.m. — Here’s what I know after playing around with You Are The Committee some more: Miami is absolutely going to be a No. 1 seed at this point. I think North Dakota’s loss sealed that for good. …. Wisconsin is very much alive. Its bid depends on Princeton beating Harvard in the ECAC final.
8:19 p.m. – Not sure what our commenter below is trying to say. … Anyway, looks like Miami’s win has locked Clarkson for good. There was some bizarre scenario which might have had the Knights out, but that’s no longer.
7:50 p.m. – Playing with You Are the Committee, it looks like if Notre Dame wins the consolation, and ”normal” stuff happens elsewhere — then Notre Dame is in and Wisconsin is out. No time to tell you why :) – but that’s what I’ve got. Notre Dame losing the consolation, puts Wisconsin in and Notre Dame out. This is with a BU-UNH Hockey East final, by the way, with UNH winning. Right now UNH-BC is 4-4 – so that’s not certain.
7:40 p.m. — Miami just won in overtime, putting the pressure on Michigan as far as top overall seed. And, of course, it throws Notre Dame for a loop. Notre Dame is hanging by a thread. Vermont just took the comparison with Notre Dame because of Record vs. TUC, putting Notre Dame in a tie with Wisconsin.
6:27 p.m. — Princeton just took the comparison with Minnesota State, which drops the Mavericks out of the tie with Wisconsin, into 14th place. We’ve known that the ECAC champ would take the 14th spot, but we’ve had it as more likely being Wisconsin. But this indicates it could be the Mavericks. The comparison is 2-2, so RPI should be the tiebreaker. But the RPI is showing .5277 for each …. there’s probably a minute difference another significant digit down the line. … Now, Princeton could lose Saturday, and it goes back to the way it was. But if Princeton wins the ECAC, the Mavericks could stay at 14. Let me run some You Are The Committee stuff.
6:23 p.m. – Princeton wins. Something just caused Minnesota State to dip to 14 in the Pairwise, with Wisconsin at 13. Looking into it.
6:12 p.m. — Denver defeats North Dakota. The teams stay where they were in the Pairwise – with Denver 6 and North Dakota 5. We’ll see more about what this means in a minute. Princeton about to win its game against Colgate.
We’ll be here throughout the weekend as the results come in, letting you know about the ramifications of the Pairwise … All the twists and turns are always fascinating to watch. Check out last year’s live blog of the Pairwise.
10:31 p.m. — That’s it folks. Check out the main site — www.collegehockeynews.com — for a new breakdown article soon, and analysis from there.
10:30 p.m. — Note … in the Minnesota scenario below … it depends how the committee breaks the 3-way tie at 11 … I have done it according to the way they’ve done it in recent years … by RPI. In older years, the committee used to compare the individual comparisons between the teams to figure it out — in which case UMass would be 11. See the main site from here on in for more
10:28 p.m. — Preliminarily … if Minnesota wins …
DENVER
1 Minnesota – 16 UAH
8 Mich – 10 No Dak (to avoid MSU)
GRAND RAPIDS
2 Notre Dame – 15 Air Force
7 BU – 9 MSU
ROCHESTER
3 Clarkson – 13 UMass (to avoid UNH)
6 SCSU – 12 Maine (to avoid BC)
MANCHESTER
4 UNH – 14 Miami
5 BC – 11 SLU
If North Dakota wins…
GRAND RAPIDS
1 Notre Dame – 16 UAH
8 Mich – 9 BU
DENVER
2 Minnesota – 15 Air Force
7 NoDak – 10 MSU
ROCHESTER
3 Clarkson – 14 UMass
6 SCSU – 12 Maine (to avoid BC)
MANCHESTER
4 UNH – 13 Miami
5 BC – 11 St. Lawrence
10:23 p.m. — Rejoicement in Amherst and Oxford. UMass is in the NCAAs for the first time. Clarkson will get a No. 1 seed and it looks like will play in Rochester as hoped. Stay tuned for the rest.
10:12 p.m. — The Q crumbles – now shorthanded … and North Dakota ties it in St. Paul. Hold on to your seatbelts.
10:10 p.m. – WOW Clarkson … 3-2 – three straight. Miami and UMass rejoice.
10:10 p.m. — Had to step away for a CSTV appearance there. With 4 scenarios still out there and little time to go in depth, I’m not sure I clarified things.
9:36 p.m. — OK, BC and Notre Dame’s wins start to clear the picture. If Quinnipiac holds on, it’s Miami or UMass for the final spot — If NoDak wins it’s Miami … if Minnesota wins it’s Massachusetts.
9:10 p.m. — Congratulations Air Force Academy on the AH championship and a first-ever NCAA bid for that program, and any service academy. The Falcons will be the No. 15 seed overall. Ala.-Huntsville is 16. Either Quinnipiac, Mass or Miami will be 14.
8:52 p.m. — If things hold … Miami is in if North Dakota wins WCHA … Massachusetts is in if Minnesota wins WCHA. … Both are in if Clarkson comes back.
8:43 p.m. — Let’s assume the teams with leads keep them … That’s Air Force and QU at 2-0, and BC at 3-0. … If North Dakota and Michigan win … QU would bump UMass out of the final spot. Same if Notre Dame wins CCHA instead of Michigan.
8:39 p.m. — The Bobcats are seriously pi**ing off a lot of people right now, taking a 2-0 lead into the second period. They just scored a PPG with 6 seconds left in the first. Their band is also pi**ing people off … playing the same “theme” song as Clarkson’s band is famous for. Very disconcerting.
8:09 p.m. — Quinnipiac scores 32 seconds into the game. Seeing QU AD Jack MacDonald in a yellow sweater, reacting, is classic. Clarkson crowd chanting … sounds like “Dis-co-teque” — Oh, it’s “Let’s Go Tech.” … Good atmosphere in Albany. … Miami and UMass sweat.
7:32 p.m. — Post-game press conferences over in Albany … Poor Bob Gaudet looks like someone shot his dog. One of these days ………… Meanwhile, forgot to mention that a Quinnipiac loss and UMass is fine too. … Championship games under way … here we go … wheeeeeeeeee….
6:41 p.m. — UMass is still teetering too. It needs Army to beat Air Force, or Minnesota to defeat North Dakota.
6:36 p.m. — And St. Lawrence wins. Goodbye Dartmouth. Goodbye Denver … for real. I have the world of respect for every member of both team’s coaching staffs and programs, and it was hard to know what to root for in that ECAC consolation game. But we’re supposed to stay objective anyway, right? … St. Lawrence is in. Now Miami waits to see what happens with Quinnipiac.
6:12 p.m. — Denver can still make it. Air Force, BC, North Dakota, Clarkson and Dartmouth need to win.
5:40 p.m. — In the words of Al Michaels … “Now we’ve got bedlam.” … In the ECAC, the goals are coming like crazy. 3-3. A lengthy review just took place, but we don’t know why yet. … Meanwhile, out West, Wisconsin pulled off a miracle of sorts … winning with 9 seconds left in OT. OK, that’s not really a miracle, but it is for two teams that were hanging on that game: Clarkson and Denver. The scenarios that gave Denver a bid are now eliminated with Wisconsin’s win. And that win is HUGE for Clarkson in terms of securing a No. 1 seed in Rochester. So we have a game that was meaningless to Wisconsin having HUGE implications for two teams. Go figure. Don’t you love this?
5:26 p.m. — Kevin DeVirgilio scores SLU’s first goal of the weekend. Whoa – wait … 2 goals in 46 seconds and SLU is tied with Dartmouth. Mike McKenzie. If SLU wins, it guarantees 2 ECAC bids. If Dartmouth wins, the league may get only one.
5:23 p.m. — Just ran a scenario that gets BC to a No. 2 overall seed, and drops Minnesota to No. 3.
5:19 p.m. — FYI, playing around more with You Are the Committee, and different bonuses, it looks like any reasonable bonus and Maine is definitely in at this point, unlike the comment I made in last night’s down and dirty Bracket ABCs.
5:14 p.m. — Wisconsin ties it. Clarkson rejoices. SCSU goalie Bobby Goepfert is banged up – he took a shot up high. Still in the game. Maybe it equalizes the Elliott effect.
5:02 p.m. — Some thoughts from out West … Mike Eaves is not playing Brian Elliott today. Apparently, he doesn’t agree with the announcers on the broadcast who think Wisconsin still has a shot at the NCAAs with the win. Clarkson is not a big fan of Eaves right now, though — since Clarkson wants Wisconsin to win in order to bump SCSU out of a No. 1 seed spot. SCSU is leading 3-2.
5 p.m. — One period over in Albany, Dartmouth just took the lead. Dartmouth needs a lot of help with a win, while SLU doesn’t.
4 p.m. — The press room in Albany is abuzz with Dartmouth, Clarkson and St. Lawrence types, all trying to figure out their chances. In Clarkson’s case, they REALLY, REALLY want to play in Rochester. They need St. Cloud State to lose and New Hampshire to win in order to make that a reality.
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