10:58 p.m. — OK, it’s time to check the main site for the final bracket projections, analysis and explanation. http://www.collegehockeynews.com/news/2010/03/20_bracket.php …. That’s all for this year’s live blog.
10:39 p.m. — North Dakota wins WCHA championship. The games are over. The field is set. Our bracket projection is on the way.
10:20 p.m. — Boston College wins 7-6 OT thriller. Vermont is in. The field is set. Waiting on North Dakota-SCSU for final seedings.
10:06 p.m. — Michigan’s win knocks out Ferris State. Assuming North Dakota hangs on in the WCHA, for the moment (no offense, Huskies fans), then it comes down to this: Maine wins, it is in obviously … Maine loses, Vermont hangs on.
9:46 p.m. — Alaska and New Hampshire are now in thanks to the results so far. Wins by Michigan and Maine would knock Ferris State and Vermont out.
9:40 p.m. — Cornell and RIT win. Cornell’s win helps the bubble teams. But UMD is out.
8:55 p.m. — RIT up 5-0 in the third. UMD, going to be eliminated.
7:56 p.m. — That RIT 2-0 lead is not making Minnesota-Duluth happy, but so far, the rest is OK for them.
5:52 p.m. — Miami wins the CCHA consolation game over Ferris State, and gets the No. 1 overall seed. Ferris State, as we noted in the earlier Bubble Analysis, is still OK if there are no “upsets.” New Hampshire is still OK without upsets. If Sacred Heart wins in the Atlantic, UNH is a lock, and it also helps Duluth jump over Vermont. If RIT wins, Vermont and UNH will be in if there’s no upsets. Remember, the bubble teams want Northern Michigan, Cornell and Boston College to win the championship games of their leagues.
5:35 p.m. — Wisconsin wins the WCHA consolation game over Denver. This locks the Badgers to the No. 3 slot overall. Denver will be No. 2 if Miami wins the CCHA consolation, No. 1 overall otherwise.
Saturday, 3:02 p.m. — Waiting for the consolation games to start. Here is a detailed Bubble Analysis just published for mass consumption.
Saturday, 2:42 a.m. — We’re still awake … and let’s see what happens if the “favorites” win out.
3t [AQ] Boston College
3t [AQ] St. Cloud State
6 North Dakota
7 [AQ] Cornell
8 Bemidji State
9 [AQ] Northern Michigan
12t New Hampshire
12t Ferris State
In this scenario, Ferris State is the last team in. If this happens, I think it would produce a bracket that looks like this:
West Region, St. Paul: 4. Wisconsin vs. 13. Vermont / 5. St. Cloud State vs. 12. New Hampshire
Midwest Region, Fort Wayne: 2. Miami vs. 15. RIT / 7. Cornell vs. 9. Northern Michigan
East Region, Albany: 1. Denver vs. 16. Alabama-Huntsville / 8. Bemidji State vs. 10. Yale
Northeast Region, Worcester: 3. Boston College vs. 14. Ferris State / 6. North Dakota vs. 11. Alaska
The only intra-conference matchup that has to be avoided is 7-10, Cornell vs. Yale. And the committee could flip-flop 9-10, or flip-flop 10-11. It’s a total guess at that point as to which it would be. It could just as easily be Cornell-Alaska, Bemidji State-NMU, North Dakota-Yale.
The other question is whether Denver would be in St. Paul, or take the “flight is a flight” and move it to Albany, leaving Wisconsin in St. Paul with St. Cloud State. You would just flop the whole bracket at that point.
Now — can we really call Michigan an underdog at this point? If Michigan wins, Yale and NMU flip-flop, which is basically no big deal, since it changes nothing. What happens here is that Ferris State drops out, New Hampshire goes to 11, Michigan to 12, Alaska to 13, Vermont to 14. Then you have:
West Region, St. Paul: 4. Wisconsin vs. 14. Vermont / 5. St. Cloud State vs. 12. Michigan
Midwest Region, Fort Wayne: 2. Miami vs. 15. RIT / 7. Cornell vs. 10. Northern Michigan
East Region, Albany: 1. Denver vs. 16. Alabama-Huntsville / 8. Bemidji State vs. 9. Yale
Northeast Region, Worcester: 3. Boston College vs. 13. Alaska / 6. North Dakota vs. 11. New Hampshire
The only intra-conference game to avoid here would be BC-Vermont, so Vermont is flip-flopped with Alaska, which is a no-brainer vis-a-vis flipping Vermont with RIT.
Take the same scenario, but instead Sacred Heart wins, and Vermont drops out with Ferris State going back in.
And then there’s a ton of other scenarios, and not enough time or space to do them all right now. So play around with You Are the Committee.
11:40 p.m. — Well, as mentioned earlier, the late games had little bearing. Here’s what we know … If things stay fairly according to form — i.e. Northern Michigan, Cornell and Boston College all win — then the last teams in will be Alaska, and either Vermont or Minnesota-Duluth. And for that, it depends on whether RIT or Sacred Heart wins the Atlantic Hockey game. If RIT loses, it is no longer a TUC — and that helps UMD. If RIT wins, UMD is out and Vermont is in. … Ferris State is pretty much still in, even if it loses the CCHA consolation game, unless teams like Maine, Michigan and/or Union win the other leagues. Alaska is in the same boat. … These are a lot of ifs, however.
Who is in …
St. Cloud State
If there are no “upsets” … then these teams are also in:
That’s 13 … Slots 15-16 are the Atlantic champ and Alabama-Huntsville. That leaves slot 14 to go to Minnesota-Duluth or Vermont.
With upsets … explore at your own peril.
8:53 p.m. — Waiting on those late game results. With Cornell, BC, RIT already winning, so far, that’s what matters for those on the bubble. The late games won’t have much bearing anymore — for today.
7:30 p.m. — OK, looks to me like Duluth needs RIT to lose — that helps a little. And also needs Ferris State to lose the consolation game in the CCHA. Ferris would still make it, but it would allow UMD to win the FSU comparison, and thus jump over Vermont — because UMD has a better RPI than Vermont. But this doesn’t work unless RIT also loses. UMD needs that extra little bit. There may be another scenario though.
7:25 p.m. — Northern Michigan wins in OT. I think this hurts UMD. Will report back soon.
7:05 p.m. — Just had the pleasure of informing both Cornell and Yale officials that they were in.
6:19 p.m. — Cornell wins 3-0, locks up the NCAAs.
6:13 p.m. — RIT wins 4-0. That just basically shores up its spot as a TUC. That comes into play because if RIT lost, UMass would re-become a TUC, affecting some things — namely taking away a comparison win from UMD, and helping BC.
6:00 p.m. — Cornell goes up 2-0, looking to salt away its NCAA bid.
5:42 p.m. — St. Cloud State wins 2-0 over Wisconsin. This doesn’t directly affect the Pairwise much. If SCSU wins tomorrow, or Wisconsin loses again, then it could move the needle. Right now, it’s status quo — Wisconsin still in position for a No. 1 seed. But remember, Wisconsin will play either Denver or North Dakota in the consolation game — certainly no easy task.
4:57 p.m. — And we’re here in Albany, awaiting the first wave of results from the semifinals, to see how things shake down.
Friday, 10:14 a.m. — It’s been written elsewhere that UMD is eliminated. This is not true. While I also thought the same thing Monday, that one loss would mean the end of UMD, after seeing what happened with last night’s result, I see that’s not the case (as explained in last night’s post). … Using You Are the Committee (isn’t everyone?), here is one scenario where UMD gets in — plug this in, and you’ll see UMD at No. 14, tied with Vermont but winning the comparison because of RPI — EVEN THOUGH it’s Vermont’s win over UMD earlier this season that is basically causing the Bulldogs’ precarious situation to begin with.
- Hockey East Semifinal #2: Boston University defeats Maine.
- Hockey East Semifinal #1: Boston College defeats Vermont.
- Hockey East Championship game: Boston College defeats Boston University.
- ECAC Semifinal #2: St. Lawrence defeats Union.
- ECAC Semifinal #1: Cornell defeats Brown.
- ECAC Championship game: Cornell defeats St. Lawrence.
- ECAC Consolation game: Union defeats Brown.
- Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #2: Sacred Heart defeats Air Force.
- Atlantic Hockey Semifinal #1: RIT defeats Canisius.
- Atlantic Hockey Championship game: Sacred Heart defeats RIT.
- CCHA Semifinal #2: Ferris State defeats Northern Michigan.
- CCHA Semifinal #1: Miami defeats Michigan.
- CCHA Championship game: Miami defeats Ferris State.
- CCHA Consolation game: Michigan defeats Northern Michigan.
- WCHA Semifinal #2: St. Cloud State defeats Wisconsin.
- WCHA Semifinal #1: Denver defeats North Dakota.
- WCHA Championship game: St. Cloud State defeats Denver.
- WCHA Consolation game: North Dakota defeats Wisconsin.
I believe this relies upon Northern Michigan losing two games. UMD then takes that comparison, even though NMU would stay ahead of UMD in the overall Pairwise. Obviously, this also relies upon BC and Cornell winning their respective tournaments.
11:35 p.m. — In the last Bracket ABCs article, we wrote that UMD would immediately lose comparisons to three teams, including UNH, with a loss. However, somehow, UMD is actually hanging by a thread. If you go to the Pairwise Comparisons Grid page, you’ll see that UMD is still edging UNH in the comparison. RPIs are showing as exactly tied — .5335 — but UMD must be up by some minuscule margin. It had appeared UMD would drop below UNH in RPI, and thus lose that comparison. But because it is hanging by that thread, it is also hanging by a thread in the Pairwise — in the 14th and final slot at the moment.
10:47 p.m. — North Dakota wins 2-0. Minnesota-Duluth, as expected, subsequently drops into a tie for 14th in the Pairwise. That’s the final spot, but other things have to happen this weekend, and it will conspire to knock out the Bulldogs. Check out You Are the Committee and see if you can keep them in.
Thursday, 9:41 p.m. — We’re here a day early, just to give a reminder that Minnesota-Duluth will be all but officially eliminated with a loss at the Final Five. That game is 0-0 headed into the third. UMD is the only team of the five in St. Paul that doesn’t already have an NCAA spot locked up.
Check back here to follow the fluctuations of the Pairwise in real time, throughout conference tournament championship weekend.
It starts Friday, March 19. See Tournament Watch for details.