Three Things is very late this week, I will blame myself for being on vacation. The hockey did not stop and I was able to watch some games on Friday before I left for the west, where there is a serious lack of hockey I must say (I did see a Coyotes games against the Stars). Harvard had a huge statement win against Boston College, winning 6-3, in a game they dominated for much of the contest. Harvard will be one of the topics this week because it is the last undefeated in the ECAC entering this weekend, where it has two winnable games at home. With the win against BC, the ECAC is 10-5-1 against Hockey East on the season. There are many key games in that series in the coming weeks, which feature top teams UMass-Lowell and Boston University, against three of the ECAC’s best in Colgate, Harvard and Dartmouth.

It is too early to be talking about the NCAA picture and standings, but some trends have taken hold. RPI has played two more games than any other ECAC school but are 3-1-0 and lead the standings. Its wins in the league are against Union and Dartmouth,which should both find themselves near the bye spots at the end of the season. Its loss was against a Harvard team which looks as good as a any right now in the league. So it appears that RPI may be around to stay at the top. The Pairwise rankings are not being nice, but again it is too early to care. The highest ranked is Harvard at 14th, followed by SLU at 15 and Colgate 17. For now though, lets just look at trends and thoughts because it is much too soon to look at anything. Things will change.

St. Lawrence Keeps Winning, but will the results change soon?

I have written about SLU and Kyle Hayton a lot, rightfully so because they keep winning. SLU is unbeaten in four games, winners of three in a row, have just one loss in its last seven contests and hasn’t lost a game in regulation since its opening night loss to RIT. During its three game winning streak, the Saints have outscored opponents 13-2 and have recieved great goaltending from Hayton, who has three shutouts already this season two of which being during this current streak. IS the success sustainable though? Looking deeper into it, it may not be.

The Saints have scored on 16 percent of shots, yes 16 percent. That percentage is the second highest in the country right now, second only to UMass-Lowell. The Saints average just 23.80 shots a game, which is 55th out of 59 NCAA hockey teams. Interestingly enough fellow ECAC member and league leader, RPI, is 57th in that category. SLU also has given up 35.20 shots on goal per game, which is also 55th in the country. I don’t pretend to care or understand corsi like some of my other CHN colleagues, because I think it is flawed and not indicative of what happens in the ECAC. If I did look at it religiously, Cornell would have been awful last season, while Quinnipiac would have been undefeated. That was not the case, and there are always outliers, SLU might be one of them.

With so few shots on goal and so much success, one has to wonder if SLU is overreaching where it should be right now. Scoring on 16 percent of shots will not last and getting near .943 save percentage is also far above the college hockey average. Kyle Hayton is good, but he is also a freshman with a very inexperienced defense. When the games get bigger there will be more pressure and without any inklings of a possession game, SLU may struggle to score as defenses get tighter. The latter point may not be fully understood, but as the season goes on defenses develop better into their systems. Whereas offensive hockey is a quick learn, defense is not in hockey. This is totally opposite than most sports, where defense will tend to be more developed early than offense.

A good case study would be Northeastern last season, in Hockey East. NU struggled down the stretch after a strong first half where it struggled for shots and gave up ton of them. Not saying St. Lawrence will have the same fate of an early exit but then again there could be a shock when the confidence wears off, the save percentage goes down and the shooting percentage retracts to the mean. Just warning, it is a possibility. A lot can be said of a team that finds ways to win, though which is exactly what SLU has been doing.

History Tells us that Union is almost eliminated from Cleary Cup Contention

I don’t like saying this because it is way too early to know if this year will be an odd year, but three losses to begin the conference season is a lot. Union already has the same number of conference losses that it had last year. It  also has one more than 2012-2013 winner, Quinnipiac that had two losses in its Cleary campaign. It is easy to say Union is behind the eight-ball, because they are. Historically speaking, they are way behind where they should be if they are going to compete for the top spot.

In the last 15 years, the average number of losses for an ECAC winner has been four. Only six times has the winner had five or more losses in conference play. Only twice in that time frame has a team had six losses in a season, and it has been eight years since that last happened. That trend continues back even 30 years, where the average is right below four. Five is practically the magic number because six has only happened twice. With two more losses, Union is in jeopardy of falling back to that magic number of regular season contender hope elimination. But then again if we have learned anything about Union, it is not about the regular season but the postseason. It is the three time defending Whitelaw cup champ, but an 0-3-1 record was hardly expected for them. If it expects a Cleary a long unbeaten streak needs to be in the cards. If I had to guess, this year’s ECAC winner has a chance to have six losses. The parity throughout the league makes me think as such.

If you want to check out some historical standings visit them in the CHN almanac, which has some very interesting stuff if you haven’t checked it out yet.

Harvard Is For Real, Folks

I am sure Hockey East fans are rolling right now thinking that Harvard beat one of their best, Boston College, 6-3 but then again Harvard seems to be for real. The top line is clicking on all cylinders. In five games, the top line of Jim Vesey, Alex Kerfoot and Kyle Criscuolo have combined for ten goals and 22 points. Tuesday against Boston College, the Crimson top line went crazy. It scored five of the six Crimson goals, and it combined for 10 points in the game. This piece was missing for Harvard the last two years, a dynamic top line that could score consistently.

Harvard just looks the part of a contender. It is bigger and faster than last season. The one thing that is often missed is the mood of the locker room. Because I live closest to Harvard and Dartmouth, I go to those schools a lot. I have never seen a more happy go lucky squad at Bright in post-game interviews than I did after its tie with Dartmouth two weeks ago. Ted Donato thinks this team is going to be a fun team this year, which it should be. The top six forwards are special and Harvard has great balance up and down its lineup.

The power-play should be better this season and has been. Couple that with a penalty kill that was good last year and has been lights out this year, the Crimson could have the best specialty teams in the conference. Harvard’s penalty kill has killed all 14 opponent power-plays this season and has looked good. With the emergence of an offensive presence on the blue-line the Crimson would be even better. Clicking at 21 percent currently, the power-play has clicked at 12 percentage points higher than last season in its first four games. Being the last unbeaten in the league is no fluke for Harvard, it will be a contender.

Thursday, November 13th, 2014 - 6:58 pm | Blogs, ECAC, Notes, Thoughts, Ramblings