WCHA Weekend Preview, Nov. 7-8
Posted by: Ryan EvansAs a league, the WCHA is off to a strong start, which is exciting for first-year commissioner Bill Robertson and his re-building league. Eight of the WCHA’s ten teams are either ranked or receiving votes and six teams – Michigan Tech, Northern Michigan, Bowling Green, Alaska-Anchorage and Alaska – are among the top-20 teams by win percentage.
However, a conference’s strength will always be measured by how it fares against other leagues. In that regard, WCHA teams have a .551 win percentage in non-conference play, which is the second best in the country.
Breaking down its non-conference record, of the WCHA’s 20 wins, almost half have come against the Big Ten. Overall, the league is 9-3-1 vs. the Big Ten, 5-7-0 vs. the NCHC, 2-3-1 vs. Hockey East, 2-0-1 vs. the ECAC, and 2-3-0 vs. Atlantic Hockey.
The biggest news in the WCHA this week, though, was the NCAA handing Alaska a postseason ban for this season stemming from the use of ineligible players from 2007-2011.
With the Nanooks off to a promising start, that decision has big ramifications for the WCHA race. UAF certainly looked capable of a top-eight finish in the conference, so its ban essentially opens up another playoff spot as the ninth place team will now qualify for the WCHA playoffs (assuming it’s not the Nanooks).
(After the jump: Previewing this week’s match-ups)
Match-Up of the Week: No. 16 Ferris State (3-4-0) at No. 20 Northern Michigan (5-0-1)
No. 20 Northern Michigan will try to prove its unbeaten record is no fluke when it welcomes defending MacNaughton Cup winner No. 16 Ferris State to Marquette.
At 5-0-1, the Wildcats are off to their best start in 16 years and, among teams that have played at least four games, are one of only three remaining unbeaten teams.
The Wildcats still have a lot to prove though. NMU’s first three opponents (Wisconsin, Lake Superior State and Alabama-Huntsville) all rank among the bottom 10 teams in the country in scoring offense and are a combined 1-13-0 (.072) this season. If Northern Michigan wants to convince people it is for real, a good showing this weekend against the reigning WCHA champions would go a long way.
The match-up projects as a defensive battle. Northern Michigan’s boasts the nation’s stingiest defense, which has conceded just five goals in six games played. Ferris State isn’t far behind, ranking third in the WCHA and tied for No. 11 in the country giving up just two goals per game. Both teams have also gotten great play between the pipes – sophomore Mathias Dahlstrom for NMU and senior returning Hobey Baker top-10 finalist C.J. Motte for Ferris – making for what should be a low-scoring series.
Neither team will blow you away on offense, but Northern Michigan probably has the advantage there. Ferris State has yet to find anyone capable of replacing the production they lost from last year and, as a result, rank No. 56 in scoring offense in the country and has scored just three times in its last five games, including being shut out twice.
Northern Michigan has found scoring success by emulating Ferris State’s successful “no-name’ model from last year. Like the 2013-14 Bulldogs team, NMU has no big name standouts at forward, but have averaged three goals a game anyway. The Wildcats are led by sophomore forward Dominik Shine, who, with three goals and seven points in six games, is almost halfway to his freshman year goal and point totals.
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Player to Watch: Northern Michigan senior forward Reed Seckel
Following a suspension for a violation of team rules, Seckel registered two points (1+1) in his first action of the season last weekend against Alabama-Huntsville.
The Melvin, Mich., native is the Wildcats only returning double digit goal scorer from last season, so getting him going will be vital to NMU’s offense. Northern Michigan is set up as an offense by committee, but having Seckel as a go-to guy on a scoring line with Shine and sophomore forward Shane Sooth (1+5=6) will make NMU all the more dangerous.
That line’s seven points against UAH accounted for just under half of the Wildcats’ weekend total.
Around the League:
Alaska Anchorage (4-2-2) at No. 9 Michigan Tech (6-0-0)
Last weekend’s sweep of Michigan put Michigan Tech on the map, nationally. It pushed them up eight spots in the polls to No. 9, which is the highest the Huskies have been ranked since the inception of the USCHO.com poll.
The Huskies’ 6-0-0 start is the program’s best in over 40 years and leaves them as the lone remaining undefeated team in the country among those that have played at least four games. They’ve been doing a bit of everything well — ranking in the top-two in the WCHA in scoring, defense and goaltending — and now it’s up to them to prove that they are as good as their record suggests.
They will try to do so against an Alaska Anchorage team that has been impressive in its own right this season and took three of four points from Michigan Tech last season.
The Seawolves have picked up right where they left off last year, despite losing top scorers Matt Bailey and Jordan Kwas. In their absence, UAA’s five-member senior class has stepped up with eight goals and 20 points in eight games. The defensemen have gotten into the act recently as well, scoring all five of the Seawolves’ goals in last weekend’s split with Lake Superior State.
Bemidji State (3-3-0) at No. 13 Minnesota State (5-3-0)
Minnesota State welcomes Bemidji State for an in-state rivalry series the Mavericks have owned recently. MSU won three of four match-ups with the Beavers last season and six of the last seven overall.
The Mavericks’ goaltending situation is something to keep an eye on both this weekend and throughout the season. After losing the starting job to Cole Huggins last season, junior Stephone Williams has re-claimed the crease this year. Williams has been in goal for all five of the Mavericks’ wins, while Huggins has struggled in three starts after a phenomenal freshman campaign.
Bemidji State is out to prove this weekend that it’s a team to be taken seriously in the WCHA race after sweeping Alaska at home. It brings to Mankato bring an offense that’s clicking. The Beavers scored 10 goals against UAF and eleven different Beavers registered a point against the Nanooks. Overall, BSU is averaging 3.50 goals per game, good for second in the league.
Bowling Green (5-2-1) at Alaska (5-3-0)
What would have been a highly anticipated series between two of the WCHA’s top teams has had the air let out of it a bit in the wake of Alaska’s postseason ban.
It will be interesting to see how the Nanooks players respond. They are undoubtedly irked that they are the ones paying for a series of minor infractions that occurred years ago, but there is plenty still to play for. Alaska can still compete for the regular season championship and a MacNaughton Cup title wouldn’t be the worst consolation prize. Playing in front of their home fans this weekend should also give them a boost.
Bowling Green is riding the production of its underclassmen, which have led the Falcons to five wins in their first eight games. The BGSU underclassmen lead the nation in scoring with 53 points and 23 goals, led by sophomore forward Kevin Dufour, who has already matched his rookie year goal total with nine, which leads the country. Dufour has failed to score in a game just once this season and Bowling Green is 5-1-1 when he lights the lamp.
The Falcons power play has also been lethal, converting at a WCHA-leading 25 percent.
Alabama-Huntsville (0-7-1) at Air Force (2-5-0)
In the WCHA’s lone non-conference match-up this weekend, road-weary Alabama-Huntsville heads east to face Air Force.
UAH has played just one series at home this season and is 0-5-1 in those games. The Chargers handed Northern Michigan its only blemish of the season so far last weekend, battling the Wildcats to a 1-1 tie in the series opener.
The signs of improvement for Huntsville are there. While the Chargers have allowed 28 goals in eight games this season, that is actually an improvement from where UAH was through the same number of games a year ago (36 goals allowed).
His 2.71 goals against average is nothing that will make you look twice (and is probably more indicative of the team’s play in front of him), but Chargers sophomore goaltender Carmine Guerriero has played well this season, stopping nearly 94 percent of the shots he’s seen.
UAH is facing an Air Force team that has had its own struggles and is 0-2 against WCHA teams this season.