Weekend Preview: Big Ten, Nov. 13
Posted by: Jashvina ShahFive teams will play for the Big Ten this weekend, as both Penn State and Michigan return from byes. The Badgers will be idle for the third time in the past month.
But the best part about this week is it’s the last week of non-conference play for several teams. Next week Penn State, Ohio State, Michigan State and Michigan will kick off Big Ten play.
Several teams will be tested this week, as the Gophers should have tougher competition against Minnesota-Duluth in a home-and-home series. Ohio State will have its own challenge in Bowling Green, a team that sits tied for second in the WCHA — a conference that’s quietly been one of the better ones this season.
Michigan State will host a struggling Boston College team, while Penn State will face against UMass Lowell. The pair of games will contribute to the Big Ten-Hockey East Challenge.
Inconsistent Michigan returns home to host AIC, and should be able to snap out of their losing streak.
Minnesota (7-1-0) vs. Minnesota-Duluth (6-4-0): Nov. 14 at 7 p.m. CT; Nov. 15 at 7 p.m. CT
The Gophers, on a three-game winning streak after sweeping Notre Dame, return to action with an in-state home-and-home against rival Minnesota-Duluth. The Bulldogs are on a three-game winning streak of their own, after defeating Miami and St. Cloud State.
These teams last met in their first game of the season, facing off at the Ice Breaker Tournament in Minneapolis, Minn. The Gophers won 4-3. The Gophers held a 3-0 lead into the second, but the Bulldogs closed the gap and played well through the end of the game.
Both teams have offenses within the nation’s top 10. Minnesota’s is ranked second with 3.88 goals per game, while Minnesota-Duluth’s is tied for 10th with 3.50 goals per game. Dominc Toninato’s 11 points leads the Bulldog offense, while Kyle Rau has 12 for Minnesota. He’s one of four Gopher players with double-digit points.
The Gophers now have another to add to the injury list, as Minnesota’s Vinni Lettieri was hit in the head by a puck in last Sunday’s win over Notre Dame. Per the Star Tribune’s Jason Gonzalez, Don Lucia said Lettieri probably won’t play this weekend.
Even with Travis Boyd and Brady Skjei out last week (and they’ll be out for a little while), the Gophers had no problem handling Notre Dame. Minnesota has won 17 straight at Marriucci, but the teams will probably play in two close games this weekend.
Prediction: Series split
Michigan State (3-5-0) vs. Boston College (4-5-0): No. 14 at 7 p.m.
The Spartans were the only other Big Ten team besides Minnesota to record a win last week. The Eagles will arrive in East Lansing, Mich. on a four-game losing streak, its longest since 2004.
As I mentioned in this week’s Corsi stats package, the Spartans have started blocking less shots. They’re averaging 15.25 blocks per game, which is less than last year’s average and corresponds with increased possession. But possession hasn’t translated into wins for the Spartans, who possessed the puck more in its 5-2 loss to UNH as opposed to its 4-3 win.
Corsi and possession aside, the Spartans have seen a little improvement in their offense. Michigan State has scored two or more goals over the past three games, including two games in row with four goals.
BC’s offense hasn’t really been struggling, but the Eagles dropped a pair of close games to Denver and UConn, 2-1 and 1-0 respectively, before falling to Boston University and Harvard.
It’s been a rough few weeks for BC, but this isn’t the end of the Eagles. As much as I think Michigan State can pull wins over opponents because of its defensive play, I’m not sure it’s enough for the Spartans to take down the Eagles.
Prediction: Boston College wins
Michigan (2-5-0) vs. AIC (2-5-1): Nov. 14 at 7:35 p.m.; Nov. 15 at 7:35 p.m.
The beginning of this season hasn’t been ideal for the Wolverines, who’ve used a literal “Day By Day” approach after missing the NCAA tournament the last two years. Michigan is in the midst of a three-game losing streak, dropping matches to Boston University and Michigan Tech.
Goalkeeping and team defense have been an issue for Michigan, and the Wolverines have continued to rotate goalkeepers. Steven Racine started Michigan’s last contest, a 6-2 loss against Michigan Tech. Racine’s save percentage for the season is .877, while Zach Nagelvoort’s is .889.
AIC hasn’t won a non-AHA game this season, as it dropped games to Union and UMass. In conference play, the Yellow Jackets earned a pair of wins after sweeping Niagara. Austin Orszulak and David Norris both lead AIC’s offense with six points each. Alex Murray has started the last three games for the Yellow Jackets and holds a .924 save percentage.
This weekend could be a reprieve for the Wolverines, who will host AIC. The two home games should give Michigan more time to find its identity and banish some of the issues before conference play begins. That will be important for the Wolverines, because next week they’ll play conference foe Penn State.
Prediction: Michigan sweeps
Ohio State (2-5-1) vs. Bowling Green (7-2-1): Nov. 14 at 8:07 p.m.; Nov. 15 at 7 p.m.
The Buckeyes will face the Falcons in a home-and-home series this weekend. After dropping two to Nebraska-Omaha, Ohio State has lost five of its last seven games. Bowling Green enters the contest having won three in a row.
It’s no secret the Buckeyes are struggling after losing their best scorers from last season, but Bowling Green’s season has been a little bit of a surprise. The Falcons have emerged as a contender in what appears to be a strong WCHA conference featuring Michigan Tech and Minnesota State..
The WCHA — to my surprise — has emerged as one of the strongest conferences so far this season. It houses one of the nation’s two undefeated teams in Michigan Tech, and the Minnesota State Mavericks have played well this season.
Kevin Dufour leads Bowling Green’s offense with 10 points, averaging a point per game. He’s tied for fourth in the conference in scoring, and tied for 24th nationally. Goalkeeper Tommy Burke has started the last three games and holds a .933 save percentage. Bowling Green’s two losses have come against Miami and Minnesota State.
Tanner Fritz’s nine points leads the Buckeye offense, which has gotten a boost from freshman Matthew Weis, who has five assists. Matt Tomkins has a .906 save percentage and has started four games this season, but Christian Frey earned the last start. Frey has a .903 save percentage.
I can’t see Ohio State staying in either of these games.
Prediction: Bowling Green sweeps
Penn State at UMass-Lowell: Nov. 14 at 7:15 p.m.; Nov. 15 at 7 p.m.
Penn State returns from a bye week to face UMass Lowell. The River Hawks split their Big Ten games earlier, beating Michigan State but falling 8-4 to the Wolverines. Penn State’s only Hockey East opponent was UConn, and the Nittany Lions swept that series by a combined score of 10-2.
The Nittany Lions have won four in a row, but all those wins were against AHA opponents. Taylor Holstrom has 11 points this season, which is tied for second in the Big Ten. And Holmstrom is the only non-Gopher who ranks in the top five in Big Ten scoring. Matthew Skoff’s .932 save percentage leads the conference.
The River Hawks entered this season without Connor Hellebuyck, leaving the netminding situation in question. Jeff Smith has played in four games this season, but has the nation’s 10th-best save percentage at .940. He has started three of the team’s last five games, splitting time with Kevin Boyle.
UMass Lowell has been an up-and-down team this season. After a three-game winning streak, the River Hawks split their series with Northeastern. UMass Lowell suffered a lot from turnover at the end of last season, so it’s no surprise if they struggle.
Prediction: Series split