Weekend Preview: Big Ten, Nov. 19
Posted by: Jashvina ShahIt’s finally here. This weekend, Penn State, Michigan, Michigan State and Ohio State start conference play. Big Ten teams have struggled out of conference this season, there are little clues about what will happen in conference play.
Both conference matchups are intriguing. Penn State has the second-best overall record in the Big Ten and has consistently played well. But it’s possible to argue Penn State hasn’t beaten quality opponents. Michigan has continued its inconsistent play, but at times the Wolverines have looked like a strong team. This will be a test for both teams.
With a Thursday matchup, the Buckeyes and Spartans will start conference play. The past four games between these two teams have gone into overtime, and the Buckeyes went 1-0-3-2 in those games. (This is also your friendly reminder that the Big Ten has shootouts.) This series features two teams known for low scoring, and it could come down to the goalkeepers.
In case you’ve forgotten, here’s a how Big Ten shootouts work. Each OT or regulation win earns a team three points. If the game goes into a shootout, the winning team gets two conference points and the losing team one. For PairWise purposes, all shootout games are officially counted as a tie.
After spending three of the past four weekends on a bye, the Badgers are back in action with a trip to Colorado. First the struggling Badgers play Colorado College and then they’ll travel to Denver. Minnesota will face the NTDP U-18 team in exhibition play.
Ohio State (3-6-1) vs. Michigan State (3-6-0): Nov. 20 at 7 p.m.; Nov. 21 at 7 p.m.
These teams met in the Big Ten tournament, when Ohio State defeated Michigan State en route a championship game appearance. Last season there were many close contests between the two teams and a lot of shootouts.
The Buckeyes enter the contest after a couple well-fought matches against Bowling Green — including a win. Ohio State knew the offense would struggle, and on the back end the Buckeyes have used a goalkeeping rotation.
Ohio State beat reporter Matthew McGreevy reported that Matt Tomkins will start on Thursday.
The Spartans are on a two-game losing streak after dropping matches to UNH and Boston College. Michigan State split its series with Ferris State, which snapped a four-game losing streak. At times, the Spartans have had offensive outbreaks — largely bolstered by Michael Ferrantino, Matt Berry and Mackenzie MacEachern.
Back when these teams last met, Christian Frey and Jake Hildebrand squared off. Apparently Frey wasn’t the answer for Ohio State’s net, but Hildebrand has continued to play well for Michigan State. The goalkeeping advantage goes to the Spartans and Hildebrand’s .912 save percentage, which ranks third amongst Big Ten goalkeepers.
I think Michigan State is more consistent than Ohio State, but the Buckeyes had a lot of positives from last weekend. Both teams were hurt from offseason turnover, with with Hildebrand and the return of Berry, the advantage might fall to the Spartans.
Prediction: Series split
Michigan (4-5-0) vs. Penn State (6-2-2): Nov. 21 at 7:30 p.m.; Nov. 22 at 7:30 p.m.
This is a rematch of last year’s Big Ten tournament game, when Penn State earned a 2-1 double-OT victory. It was quite a goalkeeping battle between Matthew Skoff and Zach Nagelvoort in the thriller.
Now, Nagelvoort has split starts with Steve Racine. Skoff was pulled on Penn State’s road trip, and Eamon McAdam earned the nod in Penn State’s latest game. Even after last weekend’s split, the Nittany Lions have the goalkeeping advantage. Michigan still hasn’t solved its goalkeeping problem, and both Nagelvoort and Racine have poor save percentages.
While Michigan was picked to finish second in the conference, Penn State could take that spot.The Nittany Lions have almost their entire team in tact and have played consistently this season. The Wolverines, however, have not.
Offensively the Wolverines are receiving help from freshmen Dylan Larkin and Zach Werenski, who are tied for third in scoring on the team with eight points each. The Wolverines net 3.33 goals per game, while Penn State leads the conference with 3.80 tallies per contest.
Quietly, Penn State’s Taylor Holstrom leads the Big Ten in scoring with 16 points. He’s tied for first in the country and has the most assists per game. Casey Bailey has 12 points per game, and Penn State’s offense is tied for second nationally.
It’s really hard to predict this series. I was impressed by Michigan when I saw them, but that was almost a month ago. Penn State’s consistency, goalkeeping and revived offense is compelling, so I’m leaning towards the Nittany Lions.
Prediction: Winning two at Yost might be difficult. Series split
Wisconsin (0-6-0) at Colorado College (2-7-0) at 9:30 p.m.; at Denver (6-3-0) at 9 p.m.
Who knows which team is having a worse time — Wisconsin or Colorado College. The Tigers are on a seven-game losing streak after sweeping Alabama-Huntsville, but the Badgers have yet to win this season. Colorado College has lost six games by a margin of three goals or higher and dropped a 5-1 game to Miami and 6-1 decision to Denver last weekend.
Tyler Marble started the 8-1 loss to Denver and has a .854 save percentage, while Chase Perry — the starter in the loss to Miami — has a .876 save percentage. The Tigers allow 4.78 goals per game on average.
It’s getting restless in Wisconsin, with a young, winless Badger team and a struggling Joel Rumpel. The netminder hasn’t played as well as last season, which has hindered Wisconsin’s ability to find its identity. The team found some positives in their weekend losses against North Dakota at home, but the Badgers will be on the road this weekend.
The Pioneers have won three of their last four games. They’ve split their last three series and have earned wins over Minnesota-Duluth, Boston College and Western Michigan. Denver also swept RPI earlier in the season. Denver averages 3.33 goals per game, led by Trevor Moore. Evan Cowley has started seven games and holds a .923 save percentage.
Wisconsin’s 4-3 loss to North Dakota was the closest the Badgers came to a win, although coach Mike Eaves said his team played better in the 5-1 loss on Saturday. It’s about time for the Badgers to earn their first win, but can they get it on the road? (This is Colorado College’s only home game in an 11 contest stretch). Even if the Badgers can get their first win, they probably can’t steal a road win at Denver with a shaky goalkeeper.
Prediction: The Badgers earn their first win against Colorado College and lose to Denver
Minnesota vs. NTDP U-18: Nov. 21 at 8 p.m. (Exhibition game)
After getting swept last weekend, the Gophers will faced the NTDP U-18 team in an exhibition game. SB Nation’s Nate Wells reported that both Brady Skjei and Travis Boyd will miss the game.
Prediction: I’m not sure it’s important…
