Some interesting results in the past week, included a statement by St. Lawrence over Harvard. Quinnipiac continues to lead the ECAC by four points, over Harvard, while SLU and RPI sit six points back in third place. The standings as a whole are really close as second to seventh are separated by just four points. This weekend Yale and St. Lawrence play a huge game on Friday, while Rensselaer and Union play in their poorly named Mayors Cup (Should be Mayors’ Cup but I guess it is the Albany Mayor’s trophy despite the schools being in Troy and Schenectady). For now, here is what I think now that is out of the way.

The old Harvard is Back

I have seen two out of four Crimson games this semester and what I see is troubling. The thing that can be seen not only on box scores but from the press box is how Harvard seems disinterested with first periods. Since returning from the break, the Crimson are 2-2 but its first period statistics are downright ugly. The Crimson have been outscored 9-2 in first stanza, in four games. On Saturday, the Crimson looked awful and were outscored 3-0 by St. Lawrence. SLU was the aggressor, while it seemed the Crimson just wanted an easy night quite frankly.

The first periods remind me a lot last season when Harvard never got off to a good start. Not Surprisingly the Crimson went 10-17-4 on the season, despite having a ton of talent. Every game this semester, Harvard has begun by trailing. This from a team that started well and set the tone most games in the first half. It was one of the biggest differences that led to its early season success, but now it has all but disappeared.

The Crimson have the talent to come back most nights, it has twice already in four games Despite spotting both Rensselaer and Clarkson 2-1 leads after one period, the Crimson went on to rout its opponent. On Both occasions it went on to score five more. But Yale and St. Lawrence were different. it was never able to recover against Yale nor the Saints. The common denominator for those teams? Great goaltending, it is tough to get three or four past Kyle Hayton or Alex Lyon.

It always seemed last year that it began a charge too late. Spotting teams three goal leads in the first period is a cause for serious concern, you will lose most those games. I liked Harvard to begin the year, but now the lack of effort in the first period effort is coming back it is a concern. After Saturday, I am starting to think the same old Harvard has returned, the one I have seen the last two seasons.

St. Lawrence is better than its possession numbers show, Harvard game case study

College Hockey News now publishes shot metrics on its schedule/results page, I suggest you take a look at them. But I will caution you to realize that those fail to show certain aspects of the game. In a 5-1 St. Lawrence win over Harvard, the metrics showed Harvard dominated when it did not. At quick glance of the shot charts, I realized that most of Harvard’s shots were from the points and above the faceoff circles, which tend to skew the numbers. Below the faceoff dots the shot attempts were practically even, as Harvard had a 28-27 in shots attempted. The overall numbers showed it was 73-35, which meant Harvard attempted 45 shots from above the faceoff circles and SLU just eight.

it is easy to see that Harvard indeed dominated the possession, for the most part that was the case, but SLU does a great job in the areas that actually matter. It limited its opponent to outside, the prime scoring areas and Kyle Hayton made every save that he should have. Meanwhile, Harvard struggled in those areas and when given the opportunity it did not capitalize. SLU had the better goalie, which was obvious, and it took the more efficient shots. The special teams were also clicking as SLU capitalized twice and its power play has been improving. Its penalty kill has been strong all year and sits fifth in the country at 88.2%. That marks a 15 percent improvement from last season, when it was at 73.7 percent. Special teams decide hockey games, folks, it is simple.

“We often get outshot,” said SLU coach Greg Carvel. “But we up a lot from the outside. That is how we play. People always talk about the shot differential, but it is not an issue for me. To me the big things are special teams. right now our special teams are doing a good for us.”

Metrics often times show a team playing style. Whereas a Harvard, Dartmouth, Penn State , UNH, just to name a few take every opportunity to shoot the puck, teams like Clarkson, SLU and Cornell tend to be more selective. Neither are wrong, despite it being true you can only score on shots that you take. SLU took the better shots against Harvard, hence it won. SLU has the sixth best shooting percentage in the country at 11.2 percent, which means they are doing something right. What I realized when I watched them is their skaters have accurate, tricky shots to stop. When it gets into the scoring areas, it will capitalize at a high rate. The shooting was actually quite impressive.

St. Lawrence may lack the superstar power it once had, but don’t sleep on them in the ECAC race. It has arguably the best goalie in the conference (he is a freshman no less) and its defense gets the job done. Eric Sweetman, a sophomore defenseman, is as smooth of a skating defenseman in the ECAC and the interior of the SLU defense is consistent. It is opportunistic on offense and picks it spots to send shots on net, opportunistic teams tend to win a ton of games. It has defeated both Harvard and Yale, by an aggregate score of 9-1, in two games. Not bad against the teams I considered to be the two best teams I have seen in the conference, before Saturday night. SLU sits two points behind second place and six behind first place, with a game in hand. It has a big game against Yale at home on Friday night, win that game and it is in really good position going forward.

Rensselaer’s Health is Getting better hence results are changing

It seems cliche that health plays a huge role in how well a team plays but for RPI it has played a large role in how its season has gone. For the first time in months, RPI is healthy. Last weekend, the Engineers picked up a weekend sweep against Cornell and Colgate. It has also won three consecutive league games for the first time this season. For RPI it hasn’t been individual injuries, but moreso that injuries have made for lack of consistency throughout its lineup. According to RPI SID Kevin Beattie, the Engineers have lost 54 games to injury and eight to suspension.

Only three of its players have played in all 26 Engineers games, while some of its leading scorers have also lost massive chunks of the season. Currently, it is missing forwards Travis Fulton and Mark Miller but in comparison to its games at the end of November and December it is healthy. With results improving and continuity in the lineup RPI is going to be better and already is. Consistent lineup shuffling is often times detrimental. It hasn’t only been health, but also it was mired in its leadership suspension that saw all of its leaders suspended for a weekend. SInce then they have rattled off three wins and a loss.

For RPI its season has been kind of strange. It started the season 1-5-0, went 4-1-0 in its next five and then fell off a cliff with nine straight losses. It was playing tough competition and lacked the bodies to keep up with its rigorous schedule. It was also missing its starting goaltender, Jason Kasdorf, for five games from the end of November to the end of December. His loss is a huge one because RPI is 9-10-0 with him in the lineup, while it is 0-6-1 with Scott Diebold in the net.

RPI, despite all the inconsistencies, sits in third place in the ECAC standings. It is six points back of league leader Quinnipiac.

Wednesday, January 21st, 2015 - 7:08 pm | Blogs, ECAC, Notes, Thoughts, Ramblings