The standings are so close that with three weeks remaining any of the teams in the top ten could get a bye in the first round. Quinnipiac and St. Lawrence have run away with the league, as the Bobcats have a three point lead on the Saints and SLU has five points clear of the mess of teams in third place. Behind the two front-runners it is a mess, as four teams are tied for third with two others just a point behind in the standings. The battle for the byes and home ice will come down to the last game of the season in three weekends.

Quinnipiac and St. Lawrence meet on Friday, with the league in balance. St. Lawrence has quietly won seven games in a row, all in ECAC play, while QU is riding an overall four game unbeaten streak and eight in league play. Realistically, SLU is playing the best hockey in the league right now and its 7-1 trouncing of Union shows it but QU is playing some awesome hockey as well, mainly led by its defense. With a win on Friday, Quinnipiac can practically wrap up the league barring a meltdown with two weeks left in the season, while the Saints can make it a battle for the league title in the coming weeks.

St. Lawrence and Quinnipiac is the Most Important Game in the League this Season

Everything is at stake for both Quinnipiac and St. Lawrence this weekend. Not only is the league title practically at stake, but St Lawrence has a ton to gain in terms of the national picture. Quinnipiac, as it stands now, is the only ECAC team in the top 15 of the Pairwise rankings, sitting in 13th place. St. Lawrence is in 17th place, on the outside looking in.  But the standings are what makes this game intriguing. With a win, Quinnipiac can all but lock up the title with a five point lead and with a SLU win, it will make the battle a barn-burner for the next two weekends. The Bobcats, currently lead the league by 3 points with six games remaining.

Both teams are doing it the same but different. Both are playing fantastic in their own zones, as SLU is fifth in the country in team defense and QU is 13th. The difference maker for SLU however, has been its offense. On Saturday against Union, it lit up the defending national champion with seven goals. The production for the Saints is not new, as it has outscored its opponents 28-10 during its current seven game winning streak. It is also scoring just over three goals a game and is 14th in the country in scoring, while Quinnipiac is 30th in the country and pots home 2.71 per contest.

This game has the makings of being a classic, in terms of the league neither have much to lose. With Quinnipiac ahead of third place by nine points and SLU by five, it seems as though those two will have byes in the first round of the ECAC playoffs. Nothing is a given with how close the teams are behind, but in all honesty these are the clear best teams in the league right now and there is no hotter team in the country than SLU is right now. SLU is 13-0-1 when scoring three or more goals on the season, so it seems imperative for QU to keep the Saints under that threshold. I will be there on Friday night, for the biggest game in the league this season.

Undercards and the battle for third place

While none of the games in the ECAC will be up to par with the top matchup of the week, there are a bunch of key games behind that will help to decide the mess from third to eighth place. Harvard and Dartmouth host Colgate and Cornell this weekend, which will probably be the biggest matchups of the weekend. The Big Red and Harvard make up one of the biggest rivalries in college hockey and will probably add another classic to the histories of their programs. A few weeks ago, Cornell defeated the Crimson 3-2 on a last minute goal.

Every point is crucial in the coming weeks. Union and RPI are on the outside looking in on the battle for the home ice and byes, but they aren’t mathematically eliminated. The defending national champs are struggling, and I presume eliminated from a bye because it is five points behind and it would have to pass five other teams in the process. RPI is four behind and in the same situation as Union. Hypothetically, Harvard, Colgate, Dartmouth, Yale, Cornell and Clarkson are the teams that will vie for the byes.

Has anyone seen this much uncertainty in the league before? I can’t say have, so I guess we should just enjoy how important the games will be in the last three weeks of the season.

Can Harvard recover?

Losses to Yale and Brown dropped the Crimson out of the national tournament picture, as it now sits in 16th place in the ever-important Pairwise rankings. It is a drop that began from the top spot, as just over a month ago Harvard was flying high atop the Pairwise. The drop has been precipitated by injuries, mostly, which has caused the continuity in the lineup to be non-existent.

Despite getting back two in its top 6, Sean Malone and Alex Kerfoot, the Crimson continue to drop. Luke Esposito also remains sidelined with an undisclosed injury and his return to the lineup would be key if it happened. Injuries aside, the Crimson have the ability to be the best team in the league and it has proven that it is one of the best teams in the country, as well. In its last two games, the boys from Cambridge have scored just a lone goal. With Kerfoot and Malone back in the lineup, this should hardly be an issue.

Patrick McNally’s loss seems to be bigger than maybe I thought it was going to be. His resurgence this year added a wrinkle to the Harvard offense that it lacked most of the last two seasons, which was an offensive spark. While a team like Union struggles with six very offensive minded defensemen, Harvard has the opposite problem. Last season, Harvard’s defenders added just four goals to the attack meaning opponents could focus on the lower areas of the ice. Without McNally, Harvard is again that team that struggles on the power play and with defenders jumping into the offense.

As I said above, Harvard has the talent to get immediately better but McNally’s loss will loom large going forward. If the last few years are any indication, Harvard probably will not recover. It is still in the mix for home ice and the bye, as it is in the tie for third. The bye would prove to be very important for the Crimson, as it may allow them to get healthier and recover from a rough schedule. The tough schedule is also doing its part in wrecking its season. If Harvard can get the bye, Harvard can make a run. If not it will probably mean an early exit in a such a promising season.

Power Rankings

1. St. Lawrence (16-10-2, 12-4-0) – Last Week 1 – Streak 7-0-0

2. Quinnipiac (18-8-2, 13-2-1) – Last Week 2 – Streak 3-0-1

3. Dartmouth (11-8-4, 8-6-2) – Last Week 4 – Streak: 5-0-1

4. Yale (13-7-3, 8-6-2) – Last Week 3 – Streak: 0-1-0

5. Cornell (10-10-3, 8-7-1) – Last Week 6 – Streak: 1-0-0

6. Clarkson (11-13-4, 8-6-2) – Last Week 7 – Streak 1-0-0

7. Colgate (15-10-3, 8-6-2) – Last Week 8 – Streak 0-1-0

8. Harvard (12-8-2, 8-6-2) – Last Week 5 – Streak 0-4-0

9. Union (14-12-2, 6-9-1) – Last Week 9 – Streak 0-1-0

10. RPI (9-20-1, 6-9-1) – Last Week 10 – Streak 0-4-0

11. Brown (5-17-1, 2-13-1) – Last Week 11 – Streak 1-0-0

12. Princeton (3-17-2, 1-14-1) – Last Week 12 – Streak 0-3-1

Predictions (I am really bad at these, but I am a good sport)

Friday

St. Lawrence at Quinnipiac- 3-2 QU

Clarkson at Princeton 4-0 Clarkson

Cornell at Dartmouth: 3-1 Dartmouth

Colgate at Harvard: 4-2 Harvard

Yale at Union: 3-1 Yale

Brown at RPI: 2-1 Brown

Saturday

St. Lawrence at Princeton: 7-0 SLU

Clarkson at Quinnipiac: 2-1 QU

Colgate at Dartmouth: 3-1 Dartmouth

Cornell at Harvard: 2-1 Cornell

Yale at RPI: 4-1 Yale

Brown at Union: 3-1 Union

Thursday, February 12th, 2015 - 11:24 pm | Blogs, Commentary, ECAC, Notes, Thoughts, Ramblings