After a crazy final weekend in the regular season, the Gophers swept Penn State to claim the Big Ten regular season title. Michigan State split its series with Michigan, securing the No. 2 seed and a very important bye day. Michigan is the No. 3 seed and Penn State is No. 4.

The Buckeyes and Badgers were cemented to the fifth and sixth seeds, so their series didn’t factor into the standings. Ohio State swept Wisconsin, and the Badgers have now been shut out in five of their last seven games.

On Thursday, Penn State will face Ohio State and Michigan will play Wisconsin. The winner of the Penn State-Ohio State will play Minnesota in the semifinals, while the other game’s victor will face Michigan State.

With the conference tournament fields set and CHN’s You Are The Committee tool, I’ve been messing around with scenarios. Michigan can only make the NCAA tournament if they win, but things are different for Minnesota. The Gophers could lose on Friday and still make the NCAA tournament, but there are scenarios where the Gophers can win on Friday and still miss the NCAA tournament. So, it’s in Minnesota’s best interest to take the Big Ten championship.

If Minnesota doesn’t make the NCAA tournament, both teams who played in last year’s championship game will be out.

(After the jump: The bye day is very important, Michigan State will win the tournament, Michigan’s season is very close to being over.)

The bye day is important

A bye day is quite different than a bye week. I’m in favor of a bye week instead, and would rather the lower four seeds play the week before the Big Ten tournament. It would limit the regular season (which is too long already) and reduce the tournament to two days, which could bode well for attendance and ticket sales.

But the bye day still exists, and it’s very important. With the byes, Minnesota and Michigan State only have to win two games in a row to win the Big Ten tournament. For the other four teams, it’s three games in three days – a difficult task for any team, one that’s even harder for the inconsistent programs in the Big Ten.

The only goalkeeper I think is consistent enough to win three games in three days is Jake Hildebrand, but he only needs to wins. Michigan’s best string of consistent wins came against teams with poor defenses, Wisconsin can barely win one game, and Ohio State is just getting healthy from all of its injuries.

Michigan State will be Big Ten champions

Last year we learned two things: Anything can happen in the Big Ten tournament, and goaltending will win the championship. Ohio State defeating Minnesota was a surprise, but the goaltending on display was amazing. Joel Rumpel and Adam Wilcox entered the tournament as the league’s best netminders, but Jake Hildebrand, Matthew Skoff, Zach Nagelvoort and Christian Frey all stepped up.

This year, Rumpel and Wilcox haven’t been their last-season selves. Hildebrand is the best goalkeeper in the Big Ten, giving Michigan State another advantage along with the bye. Having defense helps, even if Travis Walsh is out.

Now that Michigan State has the bye, I think they’re the favorites to win. They only need two games, and they proved earlier they can hang with Minnesota and Adam Wilcox.

My prediction could be very off. Even if it is, I think either the No. 1 or No. 2 seed will win the tournament. As I mentioned above, it will be very difficult for any of these teams to take three games in three days.

Michigan’s season will be over next weekend

Even if my prediction of Michigan State winning is wrong (it probably will be), Michigan won’t win the Big Ten tournament. And a win is what they need to make the NCAA tournament, as a split with Michigan State pushed the Wolverines to No. 21 in the PairWise. I have yet to find a scenario that gets Michigan into the tournament with an at-large bid.

Michigan had plenty of chances to secure its place in the PairWise, none more than last weekend’s series against Penn State. The Nittany Lions hadn’t been playing well and were without Taylor Holstrom. It was Michigan’s best chance for a sweep and higher spot in the PairWise, but instead Penn State swept Michigan. If/when Michigan misss the tournament, that’s the moment to look back on.

(But not to be ignored in this is the Big Ten’s out-of-conference record. That really hurt the PairWise for all conference teams.)

Monday, March 16th, 2015 - 9:00 am | Big Ten, Blogs, Notes, Thoughts, Ramblings