Three Things I Think: Hockey East, Oct. 20
Posted by: Joe MeloniLast season, following a 1-1 draw against Providence at Fenway Park, Merrimack coach Mark Dennehy remarked that Hockey East’s goaltending was the difference between very good teams and the rest of the league. It’s a comment he’s made a number of times over the years, but it always starts the same.
“You’ve heard it before. The name of this game should be changed to ‘goalie,'” he said. “You can go back and look. My senior year, Scott LaGrand led Hockey East with .900 save percentage. No one was over .900. Now, if you don’t have .920, we’re going ‘next?’ You need your goaltenders to be .920-.925 to have a chance to win games at this level.”
It’s no secret that very good goaltending is critical for teams to win hockey games. Last season, Hockey East continued the trend of making it nearly impossible for players to score goals. Nationally, the average save percentage for a team was .908. In Hockey East, that number rose to .916.
Teams don’t win in this league without consistently strong goaltending. It isn’t just enough to have good goaltending, of course. Teams need to score goals. They need to possess the puck. They need kill penalties. The list goes on, but the young man between the pipes is frequently the difference between winning and losing.
In the season’s first two weeks, goaltending statistics are especially polarized. It’s really not even worth looking at them just yet with no one playing more than four games thus far and some still with just one or two under their belts. But a couple clubs have put together some good starts and their goaltending has led the way. The usual names — Boston College’s Thatcher Demko and Providence’s Jon Gillies — will be among the leaders at the end. But BC and Providence expect to compete. Clubs looking to surprise this season will need their goalies to match their more well-known counterparts.
A year ago, it was Northeastern’s Clay Witt dominating the league to compete Northeastern in contention well into February. It’s difficult to tell who will be that guy this season, but one name has emerged in the season’s first couple weeks.Brody Hoffman, Mike Santaguida will keep Vermont in contention for home ice, NCAA appearance
Through two starts, a .933 save percentage isn’t of great note. That’s been the story for most of Brody Hoffman’s career. He’s never been a national or regional leader. He’s just been pretty good. As a freshmen, his save percentage finished at a decidedly poor .904. A year ago, he struggled with injuries and shared time with Mike Santaguida when he returned. In 20 appearances last year, he posted a .925 save percentage.
The excellence of some others in the league kept him from drawing much praise, but his consistency was critical as UVM earned an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Pairing him with Santaguida, now a sophomore, and the Catamounts may very well have a strong formula for success, especially if they continue to keep opponents from generating much in the way of puck possession.
Santaguida got the start Saturday night after Hoffman got the win in UVM’s first two games. The sophomore made 28 saves in a 3-0 shutout. Northeastern and Clarkson aren’t exactly the type of opponents expected to test UVM much. Still, Catamount coach Kevin Sneddon can’t really ask for more than he’s received from the duo.
Meanwhile, UVM’s offense has had some early success. Additionally, the club’s defensive core is experienced and diverse. Even with their success, it’s difficult to see the Catamounts truly challenging within Hockey East. Moreover, a weaker-than-usual non-conference schedule leaves little room for hiccups.
Mario Lucia needs to keep it up for Notre Dame
Through four games, Mario Lucia’s five goals on 13 shots is completely unsustainable. This isn’t a bold statement. The junior winger picked up a hat trick Saturday night in a 5-1 over Lake Superior State.
A year ago, he scored 16 times, ending the year with a very lofty shooting percentage around 20 percent. It’s not uncommon for very good college players to end the year with higher-than-usual shooting percentages due to a much smaller sample size than the NHL or other prominent amateur leagues. Moreover, the talent gulf apparent around the country exacerbates this even further.
Still, Lucia’s clearly ready to have a dominant season for the Fighting Irish. His first two years were very productive on good Notre Dame teams. The depth on those clubs, though, made Lucia’s job a bit easier. A lot of that is gone now. He and a few other UND forwards are the focal point now. He won’t score five goals every four games, and he won’t have to. Thomas Di Pauli, Steven Fogarty and others make up a strong offense. It’s not quite as experienced, though, and the blue line and goaltending lost some critical pieces to graduation.
Before the season, Notre Dame was a difficult team to assess. Their talent is undeniable, and the adjustment to Hockey East should fade with a year in the books. Some rough patches will arise, though. Jeff Jackson will need his best players to emerge at these points. Lucia must be one of these players.
Defensive issues will hold Maine back all season
It hasn’t been the easiest start for Maine to this point. An 0-4-0 record aside, the Black Bears spent the first weekend of the season in Alaska before hosting the defending national champions, Union, for a pair at Alfond Arena. The Dutchmen swept Maine without much issue over the weekend, dropping the Black Bears, 3-0 and 5-2.
Maine wasn’t particularly bad in either loss to Union. Moreover, the Black Bears were downright unlucky at times with some strange bounces costing them goals at both end of the ice. Regardless, it was easy to pick out the better side. Being worse than Union isn’t a strike against anyone really. But Maine’s deficiencies were clear. They performed well in terms of possession. Union simply didn’t need to dominate the game territorially to undo Maine.
A combination of poor defending and poor goaltending hurt Maine, and it’s difficult to see this changing much moving forward.
There’s plenty of talent on Red Gendron’s roster. The potential offensive production throughout the lineup is certainly a positive sign. Even without many goals through four games, that part of their game should come. Keeping the puck out of their own net, though, is going to be a sticking point all year long.