Part of Hockey East’s willingness to welcome Notre Dame and Connecticut was to increase the likelihood of at least five teams in the NCAA tournament every year. Additionally, the expanded Hockey East tournament gives bubble teams in Hockey East a chance to add a few more wins and bolster their standing in the Pairwise.

There’s no doubt that Hockey East can expect to send four or five teams to the NCAA tournament most seasons. A year ago, Massachusetts-Lowell, Boston College, Providence, Vermont and Notre Dame all advanced to the 16-team field. This season, each of those teams expected to get there. A resurgent Boston University also had its sights on a chance to play for a national championship. Despite the league’s efforts, the first two months of the season have changed a lot of that.

At the moment, four Hockey East teams (No. 10 Vermont, No. 12 BU, No. 14 Merrimack and No. 16 UMass-Lowell) are in the top 16. A major issue for the league at this point has been poor strengths of schedule almost across the board. Only Providence (11) and UConn (18) have played schedules in the top 20. With holiday tournaments and the rigor of league play still to come, this should change as the season progresses. But it’s going to take some major improvements from a few of the league’s best for Hockey East to get more than four in the NCAA tournament.

Disappointing starts from Boston College (7-7-0) and Notre Dame (6-8-2) have made it pretty clear 2014-15 is a down year for Hockey East. The ECAC and NCHC have established themselves have the deepest league’s in the country at the moment. The WCHA’s success hasn’t helped Hockey East either, with Minnesota State, Bowling Green and Michigan Tech all looking likely for the national tournament at this point.

A lot can change between now and Championship Saturday. BC’s youth and talent suggests it should string together a strong second half. There’s nothing bad about sending 25 percent of teams in one league to the national tournament. Hockey East, however, seems to have higher expectations, and a lot will have to change to achieve that goal this season.

Vermont just keeps winning, but it hasn’t proved much yet

Teams can only beat who they play. Vermont’s done exactly that this season. After last weekend’s sweep of Maine in a pair of non-conference games in Orono, the Catamounts improved to 11-3-1. Not a negative word can be said of winning 11 of 15. Projecting the Catamounts down the road, though, is a different story.

UVM’s schedule right now, which includes only four non-conference games, ranks 43rd in the country. Again, a lot of this can be attributed to Hockey East’s relative down year. Also, UVM still hasn’t played BU, Lowell or Merrimack — the three Hockey East opponents with comparably strong winning percentages.

The schedule is certainly weak, and UVM can only focus on winning games. This weekend, the Catamounts play a home-and-home with St. Lawrence, which should give them a nice lift with some victories.

Statistics suggest UVM is a pretty good team. The Catamounts take more than 53 percent of the shots in their games. Brody Hoffman and Mike Santaguida have combined for a .935 save percentage. Offensively, the Catamounts average 3.5 goals per game. Some of this should drop a bit as the season moves forward. Shooting 11.2 percent isn’t sustainable either. Once UVM meets some better competition, expect a bit of regression to come. That doesn’t mean the Catamounts can’t win those games. Nor does it mean they aren’t deserving of their strong start. It just means their winning percentage is a bit higher than it will be by season’s end.

Jon Gillies … Hobey Baker candidate?

Not since Michigan State’s Ryan Miller in 2001 has a goaltender won the Hobey Baker. Ending the year a .950 save percentage in 40 games played suggests he certainly deserved the award. There’s some thought that until a goaltender accomplishes a similar feat, he won’t have a chance to win the award. This is just one of the many unwritten rules and bits of intellectual inconsistency from the old boys network of lazy college hockey media and others that makes Hobey voting a farce.

After two months of games, a few frontrunners have emerged for the award. BU freshman Jack Eichel should continue to amass points all season. If he keeps up his current pace, he’ll likely be as good a candidate as any. However, Providence goaltender Jon Gillies may very well start to attract some of that praise.

Both Gillies and the Friars started the season poorly, at least by the expectations they set for themselves this season. However, Gillies has been dominant of late, and PC is winning now.

In his first five starts, Gillies’ save percentage was .888. In his last seven appearances, he’s at .973. He won’t keep that number up all year, but there’s isn’t any reason to think he won’t finish the year as one of the national leaders in this category. Moreover, his workload shouldn’t slow down much this year.

Providence’s scoring hasn’t been where it needs to be yet this season. They need the absolute best Gillies can offer. Gillies finished both his freshman and sophomore seasons at .931. Goaltenders, especially one as polished as Gillies, typically don’t improve too much. Their numbers tend to repeat themselves from year to year and level to level no matter how many shots they see.

Based on the workload he’s likely to amass by season’s end and his reputation, Gillies is looking at a season with between 35 and 40 starts. Playing that many games — and seeing that many shots — and ending the year at more than .930 should put him in the discussion for every major award he’s eligible for, including the Hobey Baker. Unless another certain winner emerges, in the vein of BC’s Johnny Gaudreau last year, the race should be wide open. Jon Gillies will likely be as good a candidate as any, no matter what Ryan Miller did 14 years ago.

BU’s blue line is going to be dominant, eventually

I wrote today on the main CHN site about some of BU’s scoring issues outside of Jack Eichel. The Terriers are an interesting case this year. So much of BU’s success is promising. Eichel is a truly dominant force. Matt O’Connor has been brilliant in goal. Some help from BU’s second- and third-line forwards should start to come soon. BU will become more than just a good team at this point.

Down the road, though, BU’s best group may well be its defensemen. Five of the Terriers’ top six are underclassmen and all of them have played well this season.

Matt Grzelcyk, a junior, leaders the group and has looked like a completely different player as a freshman. He missed most of the season last year with a shoulder injury. This year, he’s featured as BU’s top defensemen, playing against the best. Doyle Somerby, the only other player from last year to see time on the blue line, is a big body who looks completely comfortable in all situations. Brandon Fortunato, Brandon Hickey and John MacLeod are all top-level freshmen. When they committed to BU, everyone knew what to expect. There have been growing pains of course, but the group looks like it will be one of the best moving forward.

The surprise of the group has been Brien Diffley. Relatively unheralded coming out of BB&N, a Boston prep school without a particularly strong hockey program, Diffley has played alongside Grzelcyk recently and excelled. Finding players who contribute beyond the blue chip players is a hallmark of college hockey’s great programs. BU’s always done this. Under Quinn, it looks like that is going to continue just the same.

Monday, December 1st, 2014 - 3:29 pm | Hockey East, Notes, Thoughts, Ramblings