Follow this live blog all weekend as we discuss the up-to-the-minute ramifications every game has on the Pairwise.

The Pairwise is the system used by the NCAA to select and seed the NCAA Tournament. For more on how it works, check out our Pairwise Primer. Also, check out our You Are the Committee tool, which allows you to plug in projected winners of every game this weekend and see how it would affect the Pairwise.

To see live analysis of the Pairwise, click the “read more” jump below and follow along.

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With the conference tournaments approaching, I’ve been running a lot of scenarios through CHN’s PairWise calculator. It started with my interest in Minnesota’s chances (since I cover Big Ten hockey) but has expanded since then.

According to the Pairwise Probability Matrix, there are about nine teams that are locked into the NCAA tournament, and two others (Providence and Quinnipiac) that have very high chances of making it. North Dakota, Minnesota State, Boston University, Denver, Michigan Tech, Minnesota-Duluth, Miami, Nebraska-Omaha and Boston College are all most likely making the NCAA tournament.

Regardless of the results this weekend, the NCHC will have five teams make the NCAA tournament -North Dakota, Denver, Minnesota-Duluth, Miami and Nebraska-Omaha. Very few scenarios have Nebraska-Omaha – the lowest-ranked NCHC team – moving to ninth on the PWR list. I’ve encountered none that have the Mavericks dropping below ninth.

So below I ran through some points of interest, different scenarios, the likelihood of certain teams making it and what they need for that to happen. I will periodically add to this as I calculate more scenarios.  (more…)

After a crazy final weekend in the regular season, the Gophers swept Penn State to claim the Big Ten regular season title. Michigan State split its series with Michigan, securing the No. 2 seed and a very important bye day. Michigan is the No. 3 seed and Penn State is No. 4.

The Buckeyes and Badgers were cemented to the fifth and sixth seeds, so their series didn’t factor into the standings. Ohio State swept Wisconsin, and the Badgers have now been shut out in five of their last seven games.

On Thursday, Penn State will face Ohio State and Michigan will play Wisconsin. The winner of the Penn State-Ohio State will play Minnesota in the semifinals, while the other game’s victor will face Michigan State.

With the conference tournament fields set and CHN’s You Are The Committee tool, I’ve been messing around with scenarios. Michigan can only make the NCAA tournament if they win, but things are different for Minnesota. The Gophers could lose on Friday and still make the NCAA tournament, but there are scenarios where the Gophers can win on Friday and still miss the NCAA tournament. So, it’s in Minnesota’s best interest to take the Big Ten championship.

If Minnesota doesn’t make the NCAA tournament, both teams who played in last year’s championship game will be out.

(After the jump: The bye day is very important, Michigan State will win the tournament, Michigan’s season is very close to being over.)

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The last weekend of Big Ten play features the top four teams fighting for the regular season championship and a bye. Michigan State is first, but just by one point over Michigan and Minnesota. The Nittany Lions are in fourth with 31 points.

Two series this weekend features those four teams, as Michigan and Michigan State will spar, while Minnesota hosts Penn State for two games. This weekend has huge PairWise implications for both Michigan and Minnesota, who may not be able to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA tournament.

Penn State hasn’t been hampered from the loss of Taylor Holstrom, and just swept Michigan. It’ll be a big matchup for Minnesota, which has to win both games to help its PairWise position.

The last series features Wisconsin and Ohio State. Both teams will finish fifth and sixth, regardless of their results. The Buckeyes may be fifth, but they’ve been one of the better teams in the conference lately.

With four teams so close and six points at stake in each series, there are a number of scenarios that could happen. I delved into some tie-breaking scenarios here, along with thoughts from some of the coaches.

While a bye day is different than a bye week, it could bode well for the inconsistent Big Ten teams. Especially because Michigan State is the only team with goalkeeping that’s consistent enough to win three games in three days.

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News broke on Thursday that undrafted free agent Frank Vatrano will forego his final two seasons of eligibility at Massachusetts, and has signed an entry-level contract with the Boston Bruins.

At first the news took me by surprise. It’s not that Vatrano, who scored 18 goals and amassed 28 points in his first full season in college hockey, wasn’t talented enough to take his game to the next level. Far from it, in fact. But I never gave much thought to Vatrano leaving UMass after one season, especially not after essentially sitting out two years in order to get there.

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Michigan State is first in the Big Ten. That’s not a typo. After sweeping Wisconsin, the Spartans hold a one-point lead ahead of Michigan and Minnesota. The Gophers and Wolverines are tied for second, both fighting for a first-day bye.

With two games left, Ohio State – which will face Wisconsin – can’t earn a bye. The Spartans will try to preserve their spot with a home-and-home against a struggling Michigan team, while Minnesota has a two-game set with Penn State. The Nittany Lions are two points behind the Gophers and Wolverines, and could potentially earn a bye.

The Nittany Lions entered the weekend without Taylor Holstrom, who might be out for the rest of the season. But Penn State swept Michigan, sending the Wolverines outside the PairWise bubble and leaving the Big Ten championship as its best bet to the NCAA tournament. Right now Michigan is 19th and Minnesota is 14th in the PairWise. Even if Michigan sweeps – not including other results – the Wolverines would be 16th in the PairWise.

With the Big Ten regular season championship on the line, the top four teams are separated by three points. And all four teams will face each other this weekend, as Michigan State and Michigan spar in a home-and-home and Minnesota hosts Penn State.

(After the jump: The one-bid league, how Michigan State got here, and the tournament frontrunners.) (more…)

Here we go again. For the second-straight season, the WCHA is coming down to the final weekend. All five league series have major postseason implications and all ten teams are playing for something, whether it be in conference or nationally.

The MacNaughton Cup (Minnesota State vs. Michigan Tech), the final home ice position (Bemidji State vs. Northern Michigan vs. Ferris State), and the bottom two playoff spots (Alabama-Huntsville vs. Lake Superior State vs. Alaska-Anchorage) are all up for grabs this weekend. Even playoff-ineligible Alaska has its rivalry trophy, the Governor’s Cup, with the Seawolves to play for.

In the Polls: After taking three of four points from Michigan Tech last weekend, Minnesota State stayed at No. 2 in this week’s USCHO.com poll. The Huskies dropped a spot to No. 4, while Bowling Green slid two spots to No. 13 after splitting with Alaska-Anchorage. Bemidji State continued to pick up votes in the poll with 19 this week.

With just one weekend left in the regular season, the Mavericks and Michigan Tech remain in solid position to receive NCAA Tournament bids. Minnesota State is ranked No. 2 in the Pairwise, while the Huskies are No. 7. The Falcons, though, aren’t as secure in their spot after sliding two more spots to the fringe of consideration at No. 14.

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With just two weekends left in the regular season, Michigan is first in the Big Ten.  Minnesota currently holds the second spot, but only eight points separate the top four teams. Penn State and Michigan State are the other teams in play for a bye.

Minnesota is No. 11 in the PairWise, and Michigan is 15th. While Michigan is in a more dangerous bubble position, the Gophers still have to win a couple of tough series ahead of them if they want to keep their spot.

Ohio State is ready to move up in the standings, and will face the Gophers this weekend. A struggling Penn State team will face Michigan, and the Spartans and Badgers square off. Remember – each win counts for three points. A shootout win counts for two, and a shootout loss is one.

There were some big injury announcements this week, as Travis Walsh is out for the rest of the season after blocking a shot in the face. He needed to have surgery on his jaw. Penn State’s Jonathan Milley’s playing career is over, and Taylor Holstrom is definitely out for this weekend, and most likely for the season.

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After sweeping Wisconsin, Michigan has a three-point lead for first place in the conference. The Gophers split with the Spartans, dropping Minnesota to second and giving Michigan State third. Penn State is in fourth, thanks to a sweep by Ohio State. The Buckeyes are now eight points ahead of Wisconsin in the standings.

There’s more separation between the top four teams, which are now separated by eight points. Remember – because of shootouts, a win equals three points. And there are four games left in the season, so that means 12 points are at stake.

The Badgers were swept by Michigan. While the Wolverines aren’t scoring as many goals as earlier in the season, they appear more consistent than earlier in the year. And they dominated the Badgers in possession on Saturday (I’m saying this after watching, but the Corsi stats back it up).

(After the jump: Who can finish where, the best Big Ten goalkeeper and Ohio State is poised for a surge) (more…)

Michigan has sole control of the Big Ten after sweeping Wisconsin, and the Wolverines have a three-point lead. Minnesota is second, while the Spartans are now in third after the teams split last weekend. Ohio State is now eight points out of the basement after sweeping Penn State, and could move up in the standings.

There were no real Corsi surprises this week, save that Michigan State pushed Minnesota in possession. The Gophers haven’t had great possession numbers all season, but neither have the Spartans.

The Corsi stats are listed below: (more…)