Friday’s Pairwise Watch
Posted by: adamw4:00 a.m. — Yeah, that’s right, 4 a.m. … Had some trouble connecting back on. Finally able to tell everyone that our poster is indeed right. UNH will slip to No. 4 overall if North Dakota wins the consolation. Sorry for missing that earlier.
11:30 p.m. — Well, interesting stuff now, as the picture becomes a little clearer. Well, at least the amount of combinations gets down to a manageable level. It’s still confusing. … Here’s the deal for Wisconsin … it needs Princeton to win the ECACs, and for Notre Dame to lose the CCHA consolation. Then it’s in, probably as a No. 3 seed. Wacky. … Otherwise, Notre Dame and Minnesota State are in. Actually, Boston University winning HEA can also upset things for Notre Dame. … Miami/Michigan will be 1-2 depending on who wins CCHA final. UNH is No. 3 for sure. I believe North Dakota-CC are 4-5 depending on who wins the consolation, but either way, both will be in Colorado Springs. … I’m going to have a full article on this later on the main site. Stay tuned, and be back at the Pairwise live blog Saturday night.
10:11 — According to Google Maps, it’s 386 miles from Ann Arbor to Madison … and it’s 598 miles from Ann Arbor to Albany, N.Y. … So, if Michigan wins the CCHA tournament and is the No. 1 overall seed, expect the Wolverines to go to Madison ….. UNLESS Wisconsin makes the tournament, in which case, the committee will look to protect Michigan and send it to Albany. After all, a flight is a flight. Of course, Michigan hasn’t won anything yet. It’s still tied in the semis with Northern for crissakes. If Miami beats Michigan in the final, there’s one scenario where the teams are tied in the Pairwise, but Michigan has a .0003 edge in RPI to take No. 1 overall. A Vermont win in Hockey East helps Miami possibly be No. 1 overall. … As for New Hampshire, looks like it is sealed as a No. 1 seed also.
10:00 p.m. — Well, Boston College‘s win throws a monkey wrench into things. For some reason, the scenarios I kept running had to do with UNH winning. So let’s see what we’ve got here.
9:33 p.m. — Here’s what I know after playing around with You Are The Committee some more: Miami is absolutely going to be a No. 1 seed at this point. I think North Dakota’s loss sealed that for good. …. Wisconsin is very much alive. Its bid depends on Princeton beating Harvard in the ECAC final.
8:19 p.m. — Not sure what our commenter below is trying to say. … Anyway, looks like Miami’s win has locked Clarkson for good. There was some bizarre scenario which might have had the Knights out, but that’s no longer.
7:50 p.m. — Playing with You Are the Committee, it looks like if Notre Dame wins the consolation, and “normal” stuff happens elsewhere — then Notre Dame is in and Wisconsin is out. No time to tell you why 🙂 – but that’s what I’ve got. Notre Dame losing the consolation, puts Wisconsin in and Notre Dame out. This is with a BU-UNH Hockey East final, by the way, with UNH winning. Right now UNH-BC is 4-4 – so that’s not certain.
7:40 p.m. — Miami just won in overtime, putting the pressure on Michigan as far as top overall seed. And, of course, it throws Notre Dame for a loop. Notre Dame is hanging by a thread. Vermont just took the comparison with Notre Dame because of Record vs. TUC, putting Notre Dame in a tie with Wisconsin.
6:27 p.m. — Princeton just took the comparison with Minnesota State, which drops the Mavericks out of the tie with Wisconsin, into 14th place. We’ve known that the ECAC champ would take the 14th spot, but we’ve had it as more likely being Wisconsin. But this indicates it could be the Mavericks. The comparison is 2-2, so RPI should be the tiebreaker. But the RPI is showing .5277 for each …. there’s probably a minute difference another significant digit down the line. … Now, Princeton could lose Saturday, and it goes back to the way it was. But if Princeton wins the ECAC, the Mavericks could stay at 14. Let me run some You Are The Committee stuff.
6:23 p.m. — Princeton wins. Something just caused Minnesota State to dip to 14 in the Pairwise, with Wisconsin at 13. Looking into it.
6:12 p.m. — Denver defeats North Dakota. The teams stay where they were in the Pairwise – with Denver 6 and North Dakota 5. We’ll see more about what this means in a minute. Princeton about to win its game against Colgate.
We’ll be here throughout the weekend as the results come in, letting you know about the ramifications of the Pairwise … All the twists and turns are always fascinating to watch. Check out last year’s live blog of the Pairwise.
March 21st, 2008 at 8:06 pm
8:04 PM…..PairWise Predictor at USCHO.com has Notre Dame, Minnesota State and Wisconsin all tied right now at 12th, with the RPI tiebreaker putting Notre Dame and Minnesota State “in” and Wisconsin “out”. That’s the USCHO update after Miami beat Notre Dame in OT.
March 21st, 2008 at 8:08 pm
USCHO.com has Notre DAme, Minnesota State and Wisconsin all tied at 12th.
March 21st, 2008 at 8:18 pm
What do you mean by their “pairwise predictor” — you mean the actual current Pairwise, which is here: http://www.collegehockeynews.com/ratings/ …. I don’t know why the discrepency. Or do you mean the predictor — which is the same as our “You Are The Committee“?
March 21st, 2008 at 9:14 pm
If there was a discrepancy, it’s gone now. Mankato State is 14th at CHN and USCHO.
March 21st, 2008 at 9:23 pm
My guess is that we had the score entered before they did – so someone was looking at their Pairwise list which was not reflective of the latest score.
March 21st, 2008 at 10:59 pm
How much do you think the Committee is hoping that CC stays on the #1 line? I just ran a scenario that had them losing both games (now more possible since they’ve got UND in the Conso tomorrow), and they dropped into #5. How big a mess is it going to be, assuming UNH ends up #4 (and thus in Worcester)?
March 22nd, 2008 at 12:16 am
your comment about unh as a for sure #3 is false….if north dakota beats CC tom they are the #3 seed and unh is #4.