Big Ten: A Look Into Corsi, Week Three

Posted by: Jashvina Shah

Last weekend was a much better one for the Big Ten. With Wisconsin and Ohio State on byes, the conference finished with a 5-3-0 record. Penn State swept Holy Cross (and recorded the highest Corsi of all Big Ten teams), Minnesota swept Bemidji State, Michigan split and Michigan State lost both games by one goal.

In the 3-1 win over Holy Cross, Penn State recorded a second-period of Corsi of 88.37 percent. As impressive as that number is, the Nittany Lions had a 5-on-5 Corsi of 63.44 percent in the 7-1 win over the Crusaders.

Minnesota’s Corsi wasn’t spectacular in the sweep, which seems to be a pattern for the Gophers in this young season. Minnesota’s Corsi hovered around 40 percent for the 5-2 win on Friday and rose to around 50 percent on Saturday.

Michigan State’s Corsi was a lot higher than I thought it would be, given how little the Spartans are known for puck possession. But after a rough time at Boston University, the Spartans bounced back for a 53.85 percent 5-on-5 Corsi against UMass Lowell. Unfortunately for the Spartans, the game ended in a 2-1 loss. But Michigan State recorded a season-high Corsi of 78.13 percent in the second period of that contest.

Michigan’s Corsi also stayed around 50 percent for the weekend, when the Wolverines dominated UMass Lowell 8-4. I’ll provide some more context into Michigan’s Corsi later on.

As like last week, I listed the stats below, but I’ve also provided some context with a focus on Corsi in close-score situations. (This also might be worth checking out for Michigan and Michigan State, because I watched them last weekend against BU.)

Penn State vs. Holy Cross, 3-1 W

Period 1: 5v5: 37.50%, Total: 40.91%;
Period 2: 5v5: 73.33%, Total: 88.37%;
Period 3: 5v5: 56.52%, Total: 62.96%;
Total: 5v5: 55.12%, Total: 61.65%

Penn State vs. Holy Cross, 7-1 W

Period 1: 5v5: 78.79%, Total: 72.50%;
Period 2: 5v5: 50%, Total: 55.77%;
Period 3: 5v5: 60.71%, Total: 60.47%;
Total: 5v5: 63.44%, Total: 62.22%

Minnesota vs. Bemidji State, 5-2 W

Period 1: 5v5: 53.85%, Total: 59.46%;
Period 2: 5v5: 36.84%, Total: 35%;
Period 3: 5v5: 32.35%, Total: 34.88%;
Total: 5v5: 40.50%, Total: 42.50%

Minnesota vs. Bemidji State, 5-3 W

Period 1: 5v5: 58.33%, Total: 70.27%;
Period 2: 5v5: 31.25%, Total: 29.41%;
Period 3: 5v5: 86.96%, Total: 71.88%;
Total: 5v5: 55.70%, Total: 56%

Michigan vs. UMass Lowell, 8-4 W

Period 1: 5v5: 62.50%, Total: 57.89%;
Period 2: 5v5: 47.22%, Total: 54.76%;
Period 3: 5v5: 35.21%, Total: 34.21%;
Total: 5v5: 47.17%, Total: 49.15%

Michigan vs. Boston University, 3-2 L

Period 1: 5v5: 36%, Total: 47.50%;
Period 2: 5v5: 60.53%, Total: 61.54%;
Period 3: 5v5: 47.50%, Total: 57.14%;
Total: 5v5: 49.51%, Total: 55.47%

Michigan State vs. Boston University, 1-0 L

Period 1: 5v5: 35.29%, Total: 30.23%;
Period 2: 5v5: 34.48%, Total: 38.30%;
Period 3: 5v5: 60%, Total: 65.96%;
Total: 5v5: 42.05%, Total: 45.26%

Michigan State vs. UMass Lowell, 2-1 L

Period 1: 5v5: 27.78%, Total: 28.57%;
Period 2: 5v5: 76%, Total: 78.13%;
Period 3: 5v5: 51.43%, Total: 55.56%;
Total: 5v5: 53.85%, Total: 53.47%

Penn State vs. Holy Cross 10/24/14 W, 3-1

In a first period that saw no goals, the Nittany Lions recorded a 5-on-5 Corsi of 37.50 percent. That wasn’t a great Corsi percentage, but Penn State rebounded in the second. The Nittany Lions scored in the frame and had their strongest Corsi showing of the game with a 5-on-5 Corsi of 73.33 percent. Holy Cross tied the game in the third period, but Penn State responded with a power play goal to take the lead. They added another tally shortly after, finishing with a 56.52 percent Corsi for the 5-on-5 play in the third period.

Penn State vs. Holy Cross 10/25/14 W, 7-1

Two things to note — neither team scored in the first period and Penn State scored five of its seven goals in the third. But with the game scoreless in the first, the Nittany Lions recorded a 5-on-5 Corsi of 78.79 percent, which is pretty dominant. Penn State scored twice in the second while recording a 5-on-5 Corsi of 50 percent. In the third, Penn State’s 5-on-5 Corsi rose to 60.71 percent. That’s high for a team that has a 2-0 lead, but makes sense because Penn State scored five goals in the frame.

Minnesota vs. Bemidji State 10/24/14 W, 5-2

Since Corsi is best measured when the score is close or tied, I’ll point out the Gophers led 1-0 by the end of the first period. Their 5-on-5 Corsi was 53.85 percent for the frame. The Gophers scored three tallies in the second — including a power play and shorthanded goal — and recorded a 5-on-5 Corsi of 36.84 percent. After leading the Beavers 4-1 at the start of the third, the Gophers recorded a 5-on-5 Corsi of  32.35 percent. While that numbers is low, it makes sense given the trailing team would attack more. Both Bemidji State and Minnesota scored a goal in the period.

Minnesota vs. Bemidji State 10/25/14 W, 5-3

The Gophers recorded a first-period Corsi of 58.33 percent while 5-on-5, and 70.27 percent total. Bemidji State scored first in the period, but Gophers rebounded with two to end the first period ahead 2-1. Minnesota’s 5-on-5 second-period Corsi was 31.25 percent, which wasn’t good considering the score. Bemidji State netted two, and the teams skated into the third tied 3-3. The Gophers recorded a third-period, 5-on-5 Corsi of 86.96 percent. Minnesota scored twice in the third –once on a power play and the other with a Bemidji State empty net. (For the purposes of calculating Corsi, I counted all empty-net shots and the goal as power play attempts.)

Michigan vs. UMass Lowell 10/24/14 W, 8-4

For this game, the score was only close in the first period. The Wolverines tallied twice before UMass Lowell added a score of their own, but things changed in the second. The Wolverines netted four goals in the frame, and took a 6-3 lead into the third. Michigan had a strong first-period, 5-on-5 Corsi of 62.50 percent, followed by a second-period Corsi of 47.22 percent in 5-on-5 play. In the third, Michigan’s 5-on-5 Corsi dropped to 35.21 percent. Despite the drop, and the notion that Michigan wouldn’t be attacking as much with a three-goal lead, the Wolverines added two tallies in the third.

Michigan vs. Boston University 10/25/14 L, 3-2

Michigan’s 5-on-5 Corsi was 36 percent in the first period, but the Wolverines took a 1-0 lead after scoring on a power play goal. BU scored very early in the second to tie the game, but the Wolverines regained the lead on another power play tally. Michigan’s 5-on-5 Corsi for the second was 60.53 percent.With a 2-1 lead in the third period, Michigan’s Corsi dropped to 47.50 percent. The Terriers scored in the first and then again later in the third. But after BU took the lead, Michigan only attempted two shots — both with an empty Wolverine net. For the game, Michigan’s 5-on-5 Corsi was 49.51 percent. In total, its Corsi was 55.47 percent. Those Corsi numbers matched up with what I saw, as the game was pretty much a back-and-forth contest. But to me it looked more like BU dominated the third period.

Michigan State vs. Boston University 10/24/14 L, 1-0

I wasn’t surprised by the Corsi stats for this game, but I was surprised that Michigan State blocked less shots than BU. The Terriers dominated the first and second periods, which was well supported by Michigan State’s 5-on-5 Corsi percent of 35.29 percent in the first period and 34.48 percent in the second. In the third, trailing by one, Michigan State’s 5-on-5 Corsi rose to 60 percent — no surprise given the Spartans were trying to tie the game. That’s what it looked like from the press box as well, with the Terriers transitioning to defensive mode with time expiring.

Michigan State vs. UMass Lowell 10/25/14 L, 2-1

Despite a really bad 5-on-5, first-period Corsi of 27.78 percent, the Spartans only entered the second down by a goalThe Spartans fixed their possession problems in the second, recording a 76 percent Corsi in 5-on-5 play in the period. Michigan State also tied the game in the second. But the River Hawks scored early in the third, gathering a 2-1 lead. In an attempt to tie the game, Michigan State recorded a 5-on-5, third-period Corsi of 51.43 percent. Overall in 5-on-5 play, the Spartans recorded a Corsi of 53.85 percent. That’s really high for the Spartans, who only blocked 13 shots — a total below their game average for this season.

I hope that provided some more context for this week’s Corsi stats. As the season goes on, I’ll try and calculate Corsi based more on score effect as opposed to just periods. Make sure to come back for next week’s post.

Previously in the Corsi series:

Big Ten: Week Two

Big Ten: Week One

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