Adam John just put together this fine article outlining the odds of winning the NCAA Hockey Tournament. Sure it uses the KRACH which I beat up on earlier because of limited amount of data, but come ON people. Who doesn’t like to see some odds thrown out there. It is a little disconcerting to see such a disparity between the #1 seeds and everyone else, but then again, they ARE the #1 seeds.

Still, I’m ready to throw down $10 on Clarkson and get my big payback. Here’s to seeing some Cinderellas move on today!

Just a reminder to everyone, the KRACH wouldn’t have really solved the problems of the Pairwise this year either. In fact the KRACH had TWO sub .500 teams in the tournament, Minnesota-Duluth and Wisconsin.

In all fairness I don’t believe the Pairwise or the KRACH is the problem per se. I believe what has happened this year is a SYMPTOM of a much bigger problem, and that’s an excess of conference games and dramatically unbalanced non-conference schedules that has become a mainstay of college hockey (and sports in general)

Because there are so few non-conference games and less common opponent comparisons, outliers such as the Nebraska-Omaha / Princeton series can dramatically swing comparisons. The excess of league games has been overlooked mainly because with the exception of the ECAC which only plays 22 games (probably due to the Ivies) this is the way it has always been. The issue is that these statistical systems are built around very impractical numbers when trying to compare teams against ALL of NCAA Hockey.

The BCS has the same problem because of the limited number of games played overall in college football. Somehow 11 or 12 games determine a champion between 100 plus teams, and guess who’s usually at the top? Teams from the power conferences.

In the short term, the likely fix to our Pairwise issues will be a band-aid fix. No teams below .500 in the tournament, road bonuses returning, who knows. But it doesn’t fix the problem. The data set is. The question is, how do we do it and can we? Or is this the best it will ever get?

The early game in Albany is probably the worst idea ever. (Full Disclosure: I’m a Clarkson Alum) If you’re going to make decision like putting Clarkson in Albany based on attendance, wouldn’t you make that game as accessible as possible?  For some reason the scheduling here is different than all of the other brackets, and they put made the 2-3 game the early tilt.

A slight disadvantage for Michigan no doubt as most teams prefer the early game for that bonus rest and to watch the competition, but a huge disadvantage for attendance. Why? Because the local Clarkson fan base is probably at WORK. Heck, so are most of the local Albany fans on a Friday afternoon.

A good start would be to move the start time’s up to 5:30 and 8:30 like the Hockey East and Beanpot and at least give people a chance to show up at the arena after work. A better idea is to start holding regionals in the East at better hockey tourist destinations so people are willing to set aside a few days regardless who is playing. The ECAC tournament attendance in Albany was a generous 5,000 fans (lots of fans that looked like seats) compared to 5,600 for the D-III Semifinals in Lake Placid the same weekend. Last year’s attendance for Clarkson / UMass in Rochester was 3,887. Both Lake Placid, Agganis Arena spring to mind as an ideal locations for a regional. Great arenas that could be filled with a lot of atmosphere, and a lot of things to do for the weekend. I may even toss the Gutterson Fieldhouse into that mess. How about a location in NYC? Give me a reason for the trip regardless of who is playing!

The NCAA Division II Board of Directors green-lighted a proposal that allows Canadian schools to become members. The test program is apparently a pretty big deal for Division II where there is a significant gap between the number of schools in the East and West. Perhaps a bigger deal may be that schools like University of British Columbia have already expressed interest in joining the NCAA in the past, and this may be the opening they’ve been waiting for. With a precedent already set for traditional Division III schools to bump a sport to Division I, will we be seeing some Canadian independents in the future?

– It’s good to see the North Dakota issue starting to get hammered out. The NCAA and the state reached a settlement that requires the University to get approval from the Sioux tribes in the state within three years. If that doesn’t happen, then they must find a new nickname. Seems to make sense to me, just why did it take this long and why all the pains with UND as opposed to schools playing in, more visible $port$ like football.

– For those of you who picked October 26th in the first mention of the Pairwise Rankings pool, congratulations. Had to laugh when I saw the front of USCHO today and saw that. It’s only a matter of time before people look at the system like they do the BCS where fans and journalists alike start sticking a fork in team’s seasons because of an early season loss or two.

– Good to see some of the pro arenas taking advantage of college hockey action in the regular season. Most notably this week (and personally) for me the RIT / Cornell matchup at the Blue Cross Arena, in Rochester, NY. RIT is Rochester’s only college with a Division I sport until you get out to Geneva to see Hobart’s lacrosse program. Rochester is turning into a hot bed for high school hockey, and the exposure to fans in the area is a big deal. In the past year they’ve now hosted NCAA regionals, Atlantic Hockey championships, and a few other tilts.
– Always fun to look at polls, where a writer felt UNH was the number one team in the country after the Wildcats first victory of the season. Beating an 0-2-1 BU team after a loss to New Brunswick must’ve been impressed the heck out of someone familiar with the Durham Area.

– Two times in two years a game has been postponed or cancelled at BC because of the foggy conditions due to unseasonably warm temperatures. I suspect a new bulletpoint in the next Al Gore movie is in order. Of course, if the BC people were like I am with television sets in electronics, I’d totally use this as an excuse to get a new arena…

The first full weekend of college hockey is upon us. How fast time flies!

Many teams have already faced some Canadian counterparts, but I can’t help but be a little disappointed that D-I teams don’t regularly schedule any of their D-III counterparts as their warmup for the regular season, especially after the excitement in college football this season with Appalachian State defeating Michigan, it definitely would be fun to see some of the SUNYAC teams face Clarkson or St. Lawrence, maybe Wisconsin or Minnesota hosting a tilt. Certainly the D-III fans would travel, and it could ignite some local rivalries that once might have been before classification really took over. Also, because they’re NCAA teams, no more of this Canadian rough-housing that the NCAA teams can’t really retaliate against.

Loving the lineup of early season tournaments. All four that are kicking off look like they will be very competitive. The Nye in Alaska is always a wild-card with the travel schedule, but it must be an exceptional experience for the three visitng teams.

Michigan skated away with a big 4-3 OT victory earlier today in the Icebreaker, and Wisconsin took out Notre Dame 4-1 which is a pretty big statement considering consider Wisconsin’s off-season last year and Notre Dame’s huge breakout. Clarkson took revenge upon UMass in OT as well 2-1. Fortunately for the Minutemen their loss won’t end their season.

Enjoy the hockey and let the games begin!

Nope, it’s not a Canadian team destroying an American counterpart in the opening week of the season, it’s Wayne State suddenly announcing that they’re dropping hockey after this season.

After all of the hoopla surrounding Bemidji State throwing down the gauntlet to the WCHA last season, and the future of the CHA in jeopardy, this certainly puts the nail into the coffin.

A realistic scenario here is that other conferences take these teams in despite the fact there’s been an unwillingness to do so recently, now the situation has actually occured where it might be necessary. The bad news here is that there doesn’t appear to be any clear-fit for Alabama-Huntsville.

The best-case scenario would be a couple of schools announcing the move to Division I Hockey and rebuilding the CHA or a new conference. Worst-case would be a bunch of these CHA teams just calling it quits and being back down to a twelve team tournament in a couple of years. Lets hope something works out in the near future.

This is obviously not the way we all wanted to see the season start.

According to the Syracuse Post-Standard, Syracuse University plans to cut the Men’s and Women’s Swimming programs at the school in favor of starting a Women’s Ice Hockey program which would begin play in the Fall of 2008. Syracuse has fielded a club Men’s Hockey program which currently plays in the ACHA Division I.

What does this mean? Well, we’re not really sure yet, but it certainly opens the door for a full expansion of Syracuse Hockey into Men’s and Women’s Division I. While the safe bet is for them to enter into Atlantic Hockey, Brett and I couldn’t help but think about the possibility of them joining the ECACHL and taking a team like RIT or Niagara with them. Suddenly Upstate NY would be buried with college hockey. Of course that would mean 14 teams, conferences folding up, multiple divisions…. but hey, that’s what the summer and beer are for. With the Buffalo Sabres capturing the hearts of the fans in the area, more hockey might be what the doctor ordered.

A near miss on the empty net after a steal, and thats game. Maine advances to the Frozen Four 3 to 1!!

Now under three to go. No goalie pull yet. But now a UMass PP with ninety second remaining and we’re going for any extra attacker coming out of the timeout.

A little under seven to go here in Rochester. UMass having a horrible time trying to move the puck out of their zone for the past two minutes. Still 3-1.

Note to Maine Pep Band. Smashmouth was not even good in its original form. I disagree with your decision. Shots now 27 to 25 in favor of UMass with about ten to go.

Maine heads to the PP now and now a 5 on 3 and any opportunity for Maine to go two up….. And they do! Max Duffy makes it 3-1 with thirteen to go.

Nothing doing in the third so far four minutes in except a wild Maine opportunity that almost scored moments ago.

End of 2, 2-1 UMaine.

Bishop coming up huge for Maine on another PK but UMass finally tallies a goal, and a solid one at that with 1:46 left in the 2nd to make it 2-1 Maine. Goal by Fenton.

UMass with some 5 on 3 time now. Final now, BC 4 – SLU 1. As the two man advantage ends UMass is having a hard time finding the zone. Bishop almost killed one of his own fans throwing the puck out of play. I’m surprised the NCAA hasn’t instituted the delay of game penalty that the NHL has. I suspect that most NCAA arenas have less protection than NHL rinks and it removes the tossing the puck out to get a change ploys.

3300 or so here tonight. A Cheel Arena type number. Maybe a little less than Maine is used to playing in front of.

Quite the day so far around the NCAA. Minnesota storming back from two goals down in the third to beat Air Force and stave off messagw board banter for another year. UNH loses to Miami today completing the sweep of ‘Greatest Teams to Never Win an NCAA Title.’

While I write that… Boom! Another goal for Maine! This time off the goalies head by Mike Hamilton. He fist pumped, I’m not sure that goal was ‘fist-pumpable.’

Wow, UMass picked it up on shots, up 8 to 0 this period. Yet on Maine’s first shot it’s a goal! Maine is up 1 to 0 on a goal from Tyler with 14:37 left in the second.

Both teams underway here for the second period and UMass comes out firing on the PP which is killed. Wow Bishop got totally turned around but the puck stays out. Speaking of Bishop the man is a giant for a goalie, also some Maine fans feel that he is ‘Ben-Believable.’

The period ends with both teams tied at zero. A lot of action, 13 to 5 in favor of UMaine.

Just a heads up to all of you looking for Nick Tahou’s on Lyell to get a famed Garbage Plate either before or even after the game, it has been renamed to Steve T’s Potatoes and Hots. Same spectacular food, just a different name due to a rumored family dispute.

After arriving late to the Blue Cross Arena, I’m not surprised to find UMass and Maine knotted at 0-0, more than midway through the first. I AM surprised at the full half of the arena filled with Minutemen and Black Bear fans, any excellent turnout. Maine’s band is here and sounds good as well. Maine with a ton of pressure, but UMass kills a lengthy 5 on 3. Fun hockey so far.

5:27p – Another puck spits out from behind the Clarkson net, the initial save is made but put home by UMass for the game winner with 12:20 left in the 1st OT. UMass wins it 1-0 for their first NCAA win, and for Clarkson a very disappointing end to a very solid season. Congratulations to the Minutemen!

5:26p – A foot sends the puck flying in front of the UMass net and Clarkson is unable to put it home. UMass throws the puck out from behind the Clarkson net now but a defenseman gets his body in front of it and the net comes off. 12:51 left in the 1st OT.

5:21p – Word out of the Internets is that Notre Dame is up 1-0 on Alabama-Huntsville. First two and half minutes go buy with a few shots but nothing high quality. After creating a bunch of traffic in front Clarkson can’t put home a big chance. Five minutes already gone in the 1st OT.

5:15p – Heeeeeeeeeere we go! 1st OT here in Rochesrter. Clarkson v. UMass!

5:00p – Into overtime!

4:59p – UMass rips a shot and the puck comes off the board, back through the crease and in front of Leggio who isn’t able to corral it. Melee ensues but we’re still tied with 1:10 to go in the 3rd. Clarkson misses a big chance. UMass with a couple now! Puck is frozen in the Clarkson end with 5.3 left.. And now a UMass time out.. Highly doubt the extra attacker for UMass with this much time yet, but we’ll see.

4:51p – UMass now with a great chance turned away by Leggio. Another icing by Clarkson… great plays continue to be followed by bad giveaways. Three to go here in Rochester. Still 0-0.

4:45p – Clarkson with one of its best opportunities of the games just misses. Pucks are starting to find Clarkson sticks, and fortunately for UMass fans also Jon Quick. About 6:00 to go and the crowd is now very much into it.

4:41p – The crowd is slowly getting ready to go into pins & needles mode with 8:00 left to play and a scoreless tie continuing. Both teams are extremely nervous misfires, giveaways and now an icing by the Knights. 7:35 remains.

4:35p – UMass kills it, then comes tantalizingly close to another penalty.

4:32p – Breakway opportunity doesn’t get a shot off for UMass. 4th line for Clarkson is now out there creating some trouble again. Clarkson now gets to go onto the power play. 14:12 remaining in the 3rd after the charging penalty. Clarkson rips two solid shots immediately and then Fenton coast to coast for UMass but is stopped.

4:27p – Some more back and forth. Hard to find different ways to describe it. Both teams getting some close chances, both goalies turning back shots. UMass getting the better of the recent exchange. Leggio’s saves are coming off big from the stick, not sure if he is intentionally trying to steer the puck or not. Quick is needed to keep an eye on both Clarkson and UMass as a puck was almost deflected in off the defenseman.

4:25p – UMass on the PP right off the bat as Grant Clitsome takes a big penalty right off the bat. Big chance for UMass but to no avail. Clarkson with a SH opportunity and we’ve got more back and forth hockey here. A big kill for Clarkson and another big big save by Leggio. 17:23 left in the 3rd.

4:19p – A quick jersey roll call so far: Clarkson, UMass, St. Cloud and Maine obviously. Also Boston University, Boston College, Cornell, a solid RIT contingent, Wisconsin, St.Lawrence, and not one but a couple of UAA Seawolves in the crowd. Here they come onto the ice for the third period. My gut tells me the first goal wins here. Good news for both teams, they’ll not be getting any matching minors to start the third. It’s been a pretty clean game so far.

4:03p – Suddenly it’s 23-18 shots in favor of Clarkson as they’re starting to find the net at least. Still UMass’ six shots have all pretty much been high quality scoring chances. End of 2 here in Rochester. Still scoreless with Clarkson and UMass.

3:55p – Not too shockingly all the penalties wiped and nothing doing. 3:52 left in the second. Clarkson wins a face-off and fires the puck just wide. Big pressure suddenly as UMass returns the offense with some of its own. UMass just misses a home run pass, and now Leggio making a remarkable save to keep the game knotted at zero. 1:53 remaining in the 2nd. Now Quick saving UMass! Suddenly a very entertaining five minutes of hockey.

3:51p – UMass good set-up and pressure on their power play. They get a solid shot off, but Leggio makes the save and the Knights whip it down the ice. Big trouble here now for Clarkson though as the Knights are now down 5 on 3 for 0:29. A huge opportunity now for the Minutemen. Leggio standing tall in net as the Knights kill off the first penalty. 1:28 to go in the second one. UMass now takes a penalty. HUGE for Clarkson as the teams go 4 on 4 now.

3:46p – A missed empty net for the Knights and UMass promptly responds with a breakaway and a misfire. Now a penalty on Clarkson. 7:54 left in the 2nd. A little bit of energy in the crowd now. We are all getting a little drowsy up there.

3:42p – Crowd eerily quiet during this PP. UMass kills it.

3:37p – Bouncing puck dumped in handcuffs Jon Quick to some “ooohs” but still not much doing until Clarkson throws two consecutive shots on net. Clarkson is now going on the PP after a Knight is dumped in front of the net. 12:38 left in a fast-moving 2nd. Clarkson leading on shots 4-0 in this period.

3:32p – BIG opportunity out in front for Clarkson’s Mike Sullivan but he can’t pull the trigger as a UMass player smothers the puck. Outside of that, a very slow start to the second period. 15:45 already left in the 2nd. Not much cooking on either side.

A couple of random thoughts, I had hoped to get lots of jersey pictures here in Rochester especially of some local teams, but sadly not many youngsters have made it to the arena for this early game. It would be nice if the NCAA could change the start times to accomodate the youngsters that have to be in school until 2:30 so they could see the next level of hockey.

3:27p – Game back on. Some matching minors dished out before the period began after some extracirriculars in front of the UMass bench. 18:06 remaining in the second.

3:07p – END OF 1. Clarkson 0 – UMass 0.

3:07p – Whistles slowing the game down quite a bit now. 2:30 left in the first. Clarkson looking like they’re dumping the puck a bit and sending the fast forwards in after it. If one catches it it could be trouble, but in the mean time it means they’re spending a lot of time in their own defensive zone where a giveaway could be bad. 2 on 1 now for UMass and the defenseman gets back to help Leggio who makes a big save. D’Alvise then with a chance of his own but stoned by Quick. 20 seconds left and some shenanigans in from of Jon Quick after he makes a save. Shots now 9-4 in favor of UMass.

3:00p – A couple quick opportunities but nothing doing yet for the Knights. PP killed by UMass as we’re back to 5 on 5. 3:43 to go in the first.

2:57p – Brett Hull on the Jumbotron here getting no cheers from the Rochester crowd.. obviously. Tripping penalty on UMass gives one of the top power plays in the country the opportunity to hit the ice. 6:33 left in the 1st.

2:50p – 11:00 minutes in and Clarkson gets their first shot on goal.

2:46p – Zalewski almost puts home a short-handed wrap around! UMass now passing very cleanly in their zone as they establish the man-advantage. Still, the Clarkson forecheck is now coming up huge generating some offense short handed again and killing off the penalty. Clarkson now starting to put pressure on, UMass has had a hard time getting the puck out of their zone in the past two minutes. 11:47 to go in the 1st.

2:40p – A couple early opportunities for both teams as they begin to test each other out. UMass seeming to have some decent success moving the puck out of their defensive zone efficiently, they’re starting to find the open man at the blue line and have put a few shots on Leggio already. UMass with a huge opportunity but a misfire right next to the net. UMass coming dangerously close to scoring several times, UMass is finding the numbers in their favor, and now a power play for them. 15:36 left in the 1st.

2:33 – And we’re underway here in Rochester!

2:25p – Eight to go before gametime our Internet keeps cutting in and out so to the Blackberry we go. A very big Clarkson contingent here for the opener.

It’s 1:58p here at the Blue Cross Arena as the #1 Clarkson Golden Knights and the #4 UMass Minutemen have hit the ice for pre-game warms ups. Keep an eye on CHN Blog all day for the latest NCAA Updates as we get them!