Archive for the 'Big Ten' Category

Big Ten: A Look Into Corsi, Week Four

Tuesday, November 4th, 2014

Five Big Ten teams were in action this week, as the conference finished with a 5-4-1 record. Michigan lost both games to Michigan Tech, Michigan State split with Ferris State, Minnesota split with St. Cloud, Ohio State tied and beat Canisius and Penn State swept Bentley.

Like last week, I calculated Corsi stats for total and 5-on-5 play in each period of each game, which are listed below. This week I also paid more attention to Corsi Close, so Corsi in close-score situations (when there’s a one goal difference in the first two periods or when the game is tied). Those calculations are in the analysis paragraphs at the bottom.

Here are the Corsi stats: (more…)

Three Things I Think: Big Ten, Nov. 3

Monday, November 3rd, 2014

It was an interesting week for college hockey, with a few top teams losing. Minnesota dropped its first game of the season, RPI swept Union and Providence handed Boston University its first loss of the season.

Penn State and Ohio State both faced AHA foes. The Nittany Lions swept Bentley 3-2 on both nights, while the Buckeyes tied Canisius 3-3 before winning 4-1. The victory was Ohio State’s first since the season opener. With the series sweep over Bentley, the Nittany Lions won their fourth game in a row.

The Wolverines ran into a powerhouse Michigan Tech team in Houghton, Mich., and dropped both games. The Huskies, who are starting to look like a contender, dropped a total 10 goals on the Wolverines in a 4-1 and 6-2 victory. The losses dropped Michigan to 2-5-0 on the season, and brings back questions of the team’s inconsistency.

Michigan State entered the weekend after dropped a pair of one-goal contests. In the first game against Ferris State, the Spartans fell 1-0. But on the second night, the Spartan offense contributed to a 4-1 victory. Travis Walsh, Mackenzie MacEachern, Villiam Haag and Matt Berry scored in the win.

The Gophers suffered dropped a 4-1 decision at St. Cloud State on Friday, Minnesota’s first loss of the season. The Gophers followed with a 4-3 win at home in overtime and have now won 15 straight games at Mariucci. Justin Kloos had a hat trick for Minnesota.

There are still a couple of weeks until Big Ten competition begins, but the Gophers have the best overall record at 5-1-0. At, 5-2-0, Penn State is right with them Each team has won at least two games save for the Badgers, who were idle last weekend.

It’s not early in the season anymore, but it’s been difficult to form opinions on several of these teams. Many have been inconsistent so far, which could create some interesting games when conference play starts.

 

(After the jump: Defensive problems, conference play questions and Michigan.)

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Weekend Preview: Big Ten, Oct. 30

Thursday, October 30th, 2014

Every Big Ten team is in action this week save for the Badgers, who are idle for the second weekend in a row.

Ohio State returns from a bye week of its own and will travel to Canisius, while Penn State also faces an AHA opponent in Bentley. Michigan State faces Ferris State, the Wolverines will play Michigan Tech and the Gophers continue with a home-and-home against St. Cloud State.

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Big Ten: A Look Into Corsi, Week Three

Wednesday, October 29th, 2014

Last weekend was a much better one for the Big Ten. With Wisconsin and Ohio State on byes, the conference finished with a 5-3-0 record. Penn State swept Holy Cross (and recorded the highest Corsi of all Big Ten teams), Minnesota swept Bemidji State, Michigan split and Michigan State lost both games by one goal.

In the 3-1 win over Holy Cross, Penn State recorded a second-period of Corsi of 88.37 percent. As impressive as that number is, the Nittany Lions had a 5-on-5 Corsi of 63.44 percent in the 7-1 win over the Crusaders.

Minnesota’s Corsi wasn’t spectacular in the sweep, which seems to be a pattern for the Gophers in this young season. Minnesota’s Corsi hovered around 40 percent for the 5-2 win on Friday and rose to around 50 percent on Saturday.

Michigan State’s Corsi was a lot higher than I thought it would be, given how little the Spartans are known for puck possession. But after a rough time at Boston University, the Spartans bounced back for a 53.85 percent 5-on-5 Corsi against UMass Lowell. Unfortunately for the Spartans, the game ended in a 2-1 loss. But Michigan State recorded a season-high Corsi of 78.13 percent in the second period of that contest.

Michigan’s Corsi also stayed around 50 percent for the weekend, when the Wolverines dominated UMass Lowell 8-4. I’ll provide some more context into Michigan’s Corsi later on.

As like last week, I listed the stats below, but I’ve also provided some context with a focus on Corsi in close-score situations. (This also might be worth checking out for Michigan and Michigan State, because I watched them last weekend against BU.)

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Three Things I Think: Big Ten, Oct. 27

Monday, October 27th, 2014

The Big Ten fared much better this week, going 5-3-0. Minnesota and Penn State both swept the weekend, while Michigan split and Michigan State lost both games.

I’m a little proud of myself for correctly guessing the results of all of the games this weekend. But predicting some of these outcomes, even though it’s still early, has gotten easier.

Minnesota continued its strong start to the season with two victories over Bemidji State. The Gophers put up five goals in each contest, earning scoring from several different players. The Gophers are now 4-0-0 on the season.

Surprisingly or unsurprisingly, depending on how you feel about Michigan, the Wolverines took down UMass Lowell 8-4 on Friday before falling 3-2 to Boston University. Michigan State played in two one-goal contests, dropping games against both the River Hawks and Terriers.

Penn State swept Holy Cross with a 3-1 and 7-1 wins. That’s the second time this young season the Nittany Lions have won 7-1. Freshman Scott Conway had two goals and tow assists in the win, while Rickey DeRosa added three assists. Taylor Holstrom recorded an assist in each game, and he’s now the team’s leading scorer with eight points.

The results seemed to confirm a few things: Minnesota is still dominant, Penn State might be a top-three conference team, and Michigan State still plays in close games.

(After the jump: Michigan is for real, why the Spartans are good and why they’re bad, and how Penn State could finish third.) (more…)

Weekend Preview: Big Ten, Oct. 24

Friday, October 24th, 2014

Four Big Ten teams will return to action this weekend after the conference collected a 2-7-1 record last weekend. Michigan and Michigan State were the only two teams who won, defeating UNH and Massachusetts, respectively.

Both Wisconsin and Ohio State were swept last week, and both teams will sit off for a bye this weekend. The Badgers dropped two games to Northern Michigan, falling to 0-4-0 on the season, while Ohio State lost to Miami.

The Spartans and the Wolverines continue the Big Ten-Hockey East challenge with a trip to Massachusetts. Both teams will face Boston University and UMass Lowell. 

Both Penn State and Minnesota will host matchups this weekend. The Nittany Lions return home after the Brice Alaska Goal Rush. The Gophers will host in-state rival Bemidji State.

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Big Ten: A Look Into Corsi, Week Two

Tuesday, October 21st, 2014

This week was a difficult one for the Big Ten. With Minnesota on a bye, the conference finished 2-7-1. Wisconsin and Ohio State were swept, with Michigan and Michigan State picking up the only conference wins.

I calculated Corsi statistics for Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State based on the statistics available. After looking at Ohio State’s stats, and the shot charts from various periods, it’s easy to see the Buckeyes had possession problems over the weekend.

Below is a list of the Corsi stats for those teams (I haven’t been able to put it into a table yet, so it’s still a long list). Below the stats, I provided a breakdown with context of each period. I hope this information will provide some more background to the stats. (more…)

Three Things I Think: Big Ten, Oct. 20

Monday, October 20th, 2014

Well, things aren’t going well for Big Ten hockey. The conference went a combined 2-7-1 last weekend, with Michigan and Michigan State picking up the only wins. Both Wisconsin and Ohio State were swept, while Penn State lost and tied at the Brice Alaska Goal Rush.

Michigan started the weekend with a 5-1 loss to UNH at home. After starting Zach Nagelvoort on Friday, the Wolverines opted for Steve Racine on Saturday. Behind goals from Michael Downing and Cutler Martin, Michigan salvaged the weekend with a 2-1 win on Saturday. Even with the win, losing 5-1 at home for Michigan is a scary thought.

The Spartans split their series with Massachusetts, earning a 5-3 win and then falling 4-3. It’s early, but that puts Michigan State ahead of their 2.19 goals per game average from last season. It’s early, but the Spartans offense has really gotten a boost from a healthy Matt Berry, who recorded three points (2g, 1a) in each game over the weekend.

(After the jump: Ohio State’s possession problems, Penn State’s surprise start, Ohio State’s goalkeeping) (more…)

Big Ten: A Look Into Corsi, Week One

Friday, October 17th, 2014

Since advanced stats like Corsi are becoming more and more important, I wanted to try calculating them for Big Ten hockey. This is my first attempt, and it’s what will become a weekly calculation and breakdown of Corsi stats within the conference.

Corsi essentially measures puck possession, accounting for all shots taken by both teams. I won’t go into a more in-depth explanation of how Corsi came about, but if you’re interested in that and more advanced stats, check out Scott McLaughlin’s piece on WEEI.

To calculate the Corsi stats for each team, I looked through the available play-by-play archives of five games from last weekend: Minnesota’s matches at the Icebreaker tournament, Ohio State’s contests against Providence and Penn State’s 7-1 win over UConn. I manually counted each shot and denoted when it was taken, so I could break up Corsi by period and by situation.

I ended up with several categories for each period and the game overall: 5-on-5 play, penalty kill, even strength and total Corsi. I chose to express the stats as percentages.

I’m a big fan of stats, but I know they’re only telling when you put them in context. So I wanted to compare these stats to what I saw in the games, but I only watched Minnesota last week. As far as the Gophers are concerned, their total Corsi of 62.79 percent against RPI last Sunday supports how much Minnesota dominated the Engineers. The Gophers also recorded a 5-on-5 first-period Corsi of 70.98 percent. (more…)

Weekend Preview: Big Ten, Oct. 17

Friday, October 17th, 2014

All of the Big Ten teams are in action this week except for Minnesota, which has a bye after the Icbreaker Tournament.

Michigan State will take the ice for its first game of the season, while Penn State heads to Alaska for the Brice Goal Rush. Ohio State has a home-and-home with Miami and Michigan hosts New Hampshire. Wisconsin and Northern Michigan will play two in Green Bay, Wisc.

It’s early, so there isn’t much to say about these matchups or what these teams look like, but hopefully this week will give us some more insight. (more…)