Big Ten: A Look Into Corsi, Week Seven
Posted by: Jashvina ShahBig Ten play finally kicked off this week. Given how the teams have played against non-conference teams, I was intrigued to see what their Corsi numbers would look like. For the most part, 5-on-5 play Corsi numbers hovered around 50 percent.
Michigan State and Ohio State faced off, as did Michigan and Penn State. Both series were split, although Michigan’s win over Penn State on Saturday night was very lopsided. The last few minutes of the game were disastrous for Penn State, which allowed five goals in the third.
Since we’re getting into Big Ten play, I want to note that these stats don’t represent how good a team is, just what their possession looks like. And when you’re looking at possession, think of quality scoring chances. Michigan State rarely out-possess opponents, but they’re still able to win for multiple reasons. Jake Hildebrand, their goalkeeper, is very good, and so are some forwards like Mackenzie MacEachern. The most important reason is the Spartans are very good at finding quality scoring chances when they have the puck.
The stats and context are provided below. Because it’s Big Ten play, I listed the stats a little bit differently this week:
Michigan State vs. Ohio State, MSU 3, OSU 1
Michigan State
Period 1: 5v5: 44.83%, Total: 44.83%;
Period 2: 5v5: 38.89%, Total: 43.59%;
Period 3: 5v5: 47.06%, Total: 27.27;
Total: 5v5: 42.68%, Total: 38.61%
Ohio State
Period 1: 5v5: 55.17%, Total: 55.17%;
Period 2: 5v5: 61.11%, Total: 56.41%;
Period 3: 5v5: 52.94%, Total: 72.72%;
Total: 5v5: 57.32%, Total: 61.39%
Michigan State vs. Ohio State OSU 3, MSU 0
Michigan State
Period 1: 5v5: 47.22%, Total: 45.95%;
Period 2: 5v5: 58.33%, Total: 59.38%;
Period 3: 5v5: 61.11%, Total: 61.11%;
Total: 5v5: 53.85%, Total: 55.24%
Ohio State
Period 1: 5v5: 52.78%, Total: 54.05%;
Period 2: 5v5: 41.67%, Total: 40.63%;
Period 3: 5v5: 38.89%, Total: 38.89%;
Total: 5v5: 46.15%, Total: 44.76%
Michigan vs. Penn State, PSU 3, M 2
Michigan
Period 1: 5v5: 40.63%, Total: 47.83%;
Period 2: 5v5: 55.10%, Total: 62.71%;
Period 3: 5v5: 54.55%, Total: 57.14%;
Total: 5v5: 50.88%, Total: 56.46%
Penn State
Period 1: 5v5: 59.38%, Total: 52.17%;
Period 2: 5v5: 44.90%, Total: 37.29%;
Period 3: 5v5: 45.45%, Total: 42.86%;
Total: 5v5: 49.12%, Total: 43.54%
Michigan vs. Penn State, M 8, PSU 1
Michigan
Period 1: 5v5: 60.47%, Total: 56.86%;
Period 2: 5v5: 44.83%, Total: 47.46%;
Period 3: 5v5: 52.78%, Total: 42.12%;
Total: 5v5: 53.70%, Total: 48.50%
Penn State
Period 1: 5v5: 39.53%, Total: 43.14%;
Period 2: 5v5: 55.17%, Total: 52.54%;
Period 3: 5v5: 47.22%, Total: 83.33%;
Total: 5v5: 46.30%, Total: 51.50%
Wisconsin vs. Colorado College L, 5-2
Period 1: 5v5: 40%, Total: 45.16%;
Period 2: 5v5: 44.83%, Total: 43.59%;
Period 3: 5v5: 66.67%, Total: 65.65%;
Total: 5v5: 52.70%, Total: 50.98%
Wisconsin vs. Denver L, 2-3
Period 1: 5v5: 37.5%, Total: 35.48%;
Period 2: 5v5: 44.83%, Total: 50%;
Period 3: 5v5: 31.25%, Total: 35.29%;
Total: 5v5: 37.65%, Total: 40.78%
Michigan State vs. Ohio State, 11/20/14 MSU 3, OSU 1
After watching the game, I was surprised at the Corsi numbers. The Buckeyes controlled possession, but the Spartans limited their quality scoring chances so maybe I shouldn’t be too surprised. I counted Corsi close until Michigan State went up 2-1, and over that span of 5-on-5 play Michigan State’s Corsi close was 55.56 percent, while Ohio State’s was 44.44 percent.
Wisconsin vs. Colorado College, 11/21/14 L, 5-2
This game was close until early in the second when Colorado College took a 2-0 lead. The Badgers brought it to 2-1 in the same frame, and over those periods total, Wisconsin’s Corsi close was 38.71 percent. Wisconsin’s Coris jumped in the third, when the Badgers entered the period down 4-1, which makes sense given score effects.
Michigan vs. Penn State, 11/21/14 PSU 3 M 2
This game was interesting. The Wolverines jumped out to a 1-0 lead, but Penn State scored three goals in a short period to go up 3-1. Penn State controlled the pace of play in the first, but the Wolverines bounced back and netted a goal in the third to bring the score within 3-2. Michigan’s Corsi close for 5-on-5 play was 35.71 percent, while Penn State’s was 57.14 percent. For the game, Michigan’s 5-on-5 Corsi was 50.88 percent, while Penn State’s was 49.12.
Michigan State vs. Ohio State, 11/21/14 OSU 3 MSU 0
The game was close until the 7:54 mark of the second, when the Buckeyes took a 2-0 lead. Michigan State’s Corsi close was 48.84 percent, while Ohio State’s was 51.16. For the game, Michigan State’s 5-on-5 Corsi was 53.85 percent, while the Buckeyes recorded a Corsi of 46.15 percent. As I mentioned above, we’ve seen a trend of Michigan State’s Corsi not factoring into wins, and they tend to win more games when they posses the puck less. But they’re also giving up minimal quality scoring chances.
Wisconsin vs. Denver 11/22/14 L, 2-3
Score-wise, this game was a lot closer than Wisconsin’s loss to Colorado College. The Pioneers scored first, but Joseph LaBate tied it early in the second. Denver scored five minutes later, and held a 2-1 lead until the 9:08 mark of the third, when the Pioneers went ahead 3-1. This provides the score close period, which is the biggest sample size we have of Wisconsin’s Corsi close this season. In 5-on-5 play, Wisconsin’s Corsi close was 36.11 percent. The Pioneers out-attempted Wisconsin 15-4 before taking a 3-1 lead in the third. Wisconsin’s 5-on-5 Corsi for the game was 37.65 percent.
Michigan vs. Penn State, 11/22/14 M 8 PSU 1
I don’t even know where to start with this game, or Michigan. The Wolverines took a 2-0 lead in the second, when they scored thrice. Neither team scored in the first, and I counted Corsi close up until the second Michigan goal. Michigan’s Corsi close was 47.14 percent, while Penn State’s was 42.86. For the game, Michigan’s 5-on-5 Corsi was slightly higher than Penn State’s at 53.70 percent. Penn State’s 5-on-5 Corsi was 46.30 percent. As I mentioned above, the Wolverines scored five goals in the third, and a slew at the end of the game.
Previously in the Corsi series:
